Oregon State vs Oregon Odds
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -105 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -115 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
It's time to dive into the Oregon State vs. Oregon odds and make a pick for Friday night's college football rivalry game.
The Pac-12 hasn't had a representative in the College Football Playoff since Washington lost to Alabama in 2016.
Oregon State had the chance to start a chaotic set of final weeks in the Pac-12 in Week 12 but failed to defend home turf against Washington.
One of the best rushing attacks in the country was held to just four yards per play on the ground and failed to produce a single explosive drive. Two interceptions and a fumble lost by the Beavers helped Washington remain undefeated, and now, Oregon State must beat its rival and hope for some upsets to play for the conference championship.
Oregon was in cruise control during Week 12, leaving Tempe victorious after a dominant 42-0 first half against Arizona State. The Ducks have steamrolled the Pac-12 since a Week 7 loss to Washington.
Oregon leads the all-time rivalry formerly known as the "Civil War" 67-49-0, but it has lost two of the past three contests.
The Ducks have plenty to play for in this regular-season finale, as a spot in the Pac-12 title game, a national title chase and a Heisman run are all on the line.
Oregon State Beavers
Oregon State has hammered the rush in conference play, generating the third-best ground game in terms of Success Rate.
The Beavers run a heavy outside zone rush concept and rank 20th in Line Yards thanks to running backs Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick.
Head coach Jonathan Smith got the best quarterback fit for his offense in Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei, a tank in short-yardage and red-zone attempts.
DJ Uiagalelei is STRONG 😳 pic.twitter.com/z9TAE6JbzV
— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) November 19, 2023
The Beavers defense runs out of 2-4-5 personnel and mixes man coverage with quarters and Cover 1.
Oregon State has been much improved under coordinator Trent Bray with the exception of one area — it still ranks 131st nationally in tackle grade. The Beavers are 130th in broken tackles allowed, as missed tackles continue to extend drives for opponents. OSU missed nine tackles against Washington — a poor number that was still an improvement from 20 missed tackles against Arizona in Week 9.
Oregon Ducks
Quarterback Bo Nix is in a heated battle with LSU's Jayden Daniels for the Heisman Trophy. The Oregon quarterback did everything to remain the favorite against Arizona State, logging six passing touchdowns and throwing for over 400 yards in Tempe.
No quarterback has played at his level in terms of turnover-worthy plays, as Nic has recorded just three on 384 dropbacks over the entire season.
With premium targets in wideout Troy Franklin and slot Tez Johnson, Oregon boasts the best offense in the nation.
NIX TO FRANKLIN AGAIN! 💪💪@oregonfootball is making it look easy 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/JeEhuZFrHQ
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 18, 2023
Nix has limited his rushing attempts this season, as he's complemented by an elite rushing attack led by Bucky Irving.
While the offense was expected to excel even with a new offensive coordinator, it's the defense that has moved the needle on Oregon's title hopes. Head coach Dan Lanning brought a 3-3-5 scheme from Georgia, turning the Ducks into a top-25 Havoc unit.
The defense ranks top-15 in standard downs Success Rate and passing downs explosives, generating a top-20 rank in hard stop rate, which measures three-and-outs, turnovers and fourth-down stops.
Oregon State vs Oregon
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon State and Oregon match up statistically:
Oregon State Offense vs. Oregon Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 3 | 38 | |
| Line Yards | 20 | 72 | |
| Pass Success | 35 | 9 | |
| Havoc | 36 | 22 | |
| Finishing Drives | 7 | 31 | |
| Quality Drives | 32 | 25 | |
Oregon Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 2 | 70 | |
| Line Yards | 4 | 22 | |
| Pass Success | 1 | 22 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 25 | |
| Finishing Drives | 2 | 24 | |
| Quality Drives | 2 | 38 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 131 | 6 |
| PFF Coverage | 30 | 15 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 17 | 89 |
| Middle 8 | 30 | 4 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.4 (113) | 27.1 (71) |
| Rush Rate | 56.1% (40) | 47.5% (95) |
Oregon State vs Oregon
Betting Pick & Prediction
The first order of handicapping this rivalry game is the ability of the Ducks defense to defend the Beavers' explosive rushing attack. Oregon ranks inside the top 40 in terms of Success Rate and Line Yards against the run, but the breakdown of run concepts provides additional factors.
The Beavers run a heavy amount of outsize zone with additional attempts in man-blocking schemes. Oregon has seen 43 outside zone rushing attempts this season and has produced one of the highest rates of success at 65% while allowing very few explosives.
The Oregon secondary spends plenty of time in Cover 1, a coverage that has kept Uiagalelei at a modest 50% Success Rate with minimal expected points.
Oregon State ranks 32nd in Offensive Quality Drives with one of the nation's more elite red-zone units.
Another advantage for the Ducks comes in defending the ground game in the red zone. Lanning's team owns a top-20 rank in touchdown efficiency, allowing opponents to score on just 24% of attempts.
The biggest issue for Oregon State in this game is missed tackles. The defense has struggled to lock up opponents in open space, an issue that will persist in Week 13. The Ducks boast one of the most explosive offenses in the game and are second nationally in creating broken tackles.
Two key factors lead to a wager on Oregon — Oregon State's missed tackles and the Ducks' ability to stop the Beavers' main run concepts.
Action Network's projections are in alignment with the side and the total of 66. There should be plenty of explosives from an Oregon offense that frequently exposes defenses that miss tackles.
Pick: Oregon -13.5 or Better
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