The Oregon Ducks (2-0) and Oregon State Beavers (2-0) meet for the 128th time on Saturday, Sept. 14, and it’s always a heated bout.
Last year in Eugene, the Ducks took the cake with a convincing 31-7 win, but both programs have endured some changes since then.
Oregon nearly avoided disappointment when it defeated Boise State, 37-34, with a game-winning field goal from Atticus Sappington a week ago. Meanwhile, the Beavers surprised some last week as they defeated San Diego State, 21-0.
The Ducks enter as 17-point favorites with an over/under of 49.5.
So, who will stand tall in this rivalry? Read further for my Oregon vs. Oregon State prediction.
Oregon vs Oregon State Odds & Picks
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -112 | 49.5 -108o / -112u | -900 |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -108 | 49.5 -108o / -112u | +600 |
- Point Spread: Oregon -17 (-112) · Oregon State +17 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 49.5 (-108o/-112u)
- Moneyline: Oregon -900 · Oregon State +600
- Pick: Oregon State +16.5 (-115)
Oregon Ducks vs Oregon State Beavers Betting Preview
Oregon Football
Regardless of what happened last week, I’m not worried about the Ducks’ ability to make plays. They have some of the best weapons in college football, and Dillon Gabriel has proven to be a capable quarterback — when he has time to throw.
However, Oregon has had some troubles along the offensive line, and Gabriel has been sacked more this season than Bo Nix was all of last season.
Evan Stewart and Traeshon Holden look incredible, each averaging over 15 yards per catch. Additionally, the Ducks are getting a ton of volume from Terrance Ferguson and Tez Johnson, who have accounted for 25 receptions this season.
I’ve also liked what I’ve seen from running back Jordan James, who’s getting his first sniff as a starter. Last week against Boise State, James tallied 105 rushing yards after posting 95 against Idaho in Week 1.
Oregon ranks ranked 45th in Passing Success Rate and is tied for 65th in Rushing Success Rate. I like James, but it’s just him leading the charge. Noah Whittington is the only one who’s close to James in carries, but Whittington averages just 2.7 yards per tote.
Let’s talk about defense for a second, and I’ll get the good part out of the way. The run defense stifled Idaho in Week 1 — as it should.
However, Week 2 was a disaster despite the win. We know Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty is a special talent, but Oregon had no answer for him as he ran for 197 yards and three touchdowns.
Oregon ranks 90th in Success Rate against the run, and for a powerhouse program with College Football Playoff aspirations, that’s just unacceptable.
Oregon State has a very strong run game that ranks 11th in Success Rate, so can we expect a similar showing?
Oregon State Football
The Beavers certainly saw a decent amount of turnover in their offense, especially at quarterback and running back.
Junior quarterback Gevani McCoy has taken the reins after DJ Uiagalelei left for Florida State. McCoy, a transfer from Idaho, made a name for himself in the FCS and is now doing the same in the FBS.
In his first two games, he’s completed his passes at a 69.4% rate and thrown for 295 yards and two touchdowns. However, he won’t be protected as well as he has been after starting right guard Tyler Voltin suffered a torn ACL and MCL.
Perhaps it won’t be the end of the world, as left guard Joshua Gray ranks third in FBS with an 86.9 PFF grade. But it’s still a glaring hole now that the 368-pound Voltin will be missing.
In the backfield, Oregon State has quite the committee.
Running back Jam Griffin is back in Corvallis after a stop in Oxford last season. He’s made the most of his opportunities in his two starts, running for 249 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 6.6 yards per carry.
Additionally, Anthony Hankerson has been a crucial part of the rushing attack with 226 rushing yards and three touchdowns. The run game will certainly be a prominent focus for head coach Trent Bray, as it seems like he’s trying to protect McCoy.
The Beavers defense will look a lot different this year after losing a number of starters from the 2023 team. Defensive back Jaden Robinson is in his sixth year of eligibility, but this will be his first as a starter. So far, the elder statesman leads the team in solo tackles.
The star of this defense is Nikko Taylor, who has totaled two sacks and three tackles for loss in two games.
Oregon vs Oregon State Prediction
I think this game is going to be a lot closer than I expected when I initially circled this on my calendar.
This seems like a perfect storm for Oregon State to run the ball down Oregon’s throat.
There’s a lot to like on the Ducks’ defensive line in Jordan Burch, Derrick Harmon and Matayo Uiagalelei, but I worry that too much volume on the ground will overwhelm that trio.
Take the Beavers to cover. Will they win? Who knows — that’s what makes this rivalry so special. But after the first two weeks, Oregon has a clear weakness when it comes to defending the run.
Pick: Oregon State +17
How to Watch Oregon vs Oregon State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Oregon vs Oregon State Betting Trends
- 82% of the tickets and 81% of the money are on Oregon State to cover.
- 76% of the bets and 79% of the money are backing the over.
- 93% of the moneyline tickets are on Oregon.
