Utah State vs. Oregon State Odds
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 68 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 68 -110o / -110u | -265 |
Saturday night sees a bowl game with a conference champion and a Power Five foe, as Utah State takes on Oregon State in the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl.
After opening the season with 100-1 odds to win the Mountain West Conference, the Aggies shocked the nation by doing just that. The program dominated San Diego State in the Mountain West title game to finish the season 10-3.
Utah State finished last season with just one victory and got outscored by an average score of 20 points per game. Head coach Blake Anderson returned to the program with a ton of transfers, including quarterback Logan Bonner, and turned things around in the blink of an eye.
With an explosive passing attack, the Aggies finished the season 9-4 against the spread while picking up victories over Washington State, Air Force, and San Diego State.
They match up against the Pac-12's Oregon State, which finished 7-5 and reached its first bowl game in head coach Jonathan Smith’s four-year tenure with the program. The Beavers feature a dominant rushing attack and ran for over 200 yards in nine of their 12 games this season.
Utah State defeated its only Pac-12 opponent this season in Washington State and will look to use its explosive offense to take down its second in the LA Bowl.
Utah State Aggies
The Utah State offense thrives through finding explosive plays through the air.
Bonner followed Anderson from Arkansas State to join the Aggies in the offseason. He threw 36 touchdown passes and averaged nearly 275 passing yards per game. Bonner led the offense to the 10th-ranked Passing Success Rate while averaging 8.5 yards per pass attempt.
The rushing attack has been nonexistent for Utah State, as it averages 3.6 yards per carry while ranking 118th in Success Rate this season.
Though the Aggies rush the ball 52% of the time, they’ve rarely found success behind an offensive line that ranks 106th in Line Yards. That could change in this game, as Oregon State ranks sixth-worse in the nation in tackling, according to PFF.
The Aggies will need to lean on their explosive passing attack to find success against the Beavers. They will be able to expose an Oregon State defense that ranks 102nd in preventing big plays.
Defensively, the unit has been mediocre enough to keep it in games.
Utah State now matches up against an Oregon State offense that ranks 25th in rush rate, running the ball on 61% of its plays. So, stopping the run will be essential. The Aggies rank 12th in Line Yards and 56th in Success Rate against the run while allowing 4.4 yards per carry this season.
Utah State accumulated 108 tackles for loss this season, averaging 7.9 per game. Creating negative plays and putting Oregon State behind the chains will be an enormous factor in this matchup.
Oregon State Beavers
Oregon State’s offense is one-dimensional and reliant on the legs of running back B.J. Baylor.
Baylor is the workhorse running back who led the Pac-12 with 1,259 rushing yards this season while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. He averages over 17 carries per game and has punched in 13 touchdowns on the season.
The Oregon State rushing attack led the Pac-12 with 217 rushing yards per game thanks to an offensive line that ranks fourth in Line Yards. Collectively, the group sits ninth in Success Rate, averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
The offense runs the ball on 61% of its snaps, and quarterback Chance Nolan has been more of a game manager under center. Nolan throws 24 pass attempts per game while averaging 8.4 yards per attempt. He’s thrown 19 touchdowns to go along with nine interceptions on the season.
The Utah State defensive line has been strong, ranking 12th in Defensive Line Yards but has proven vulnerable against the pass. It may come down to Nolan making some throws to expose a Utah State secondary that has allowed explosive plays this season.
Defensively, the Beavers allowed 26 points and just under 400 yards of total offense per game. The group was mediocre, allowing 5.9 yards per play, which ranked 92nd in the country.
How Oregon State defends the pass will be crucial against a Utah State offense that creates much of its explosiveness through the air.
On the season, the Beavers had seven contests in which they gave up at least 250 passing yards, and they won just three of those matchups.
Utah State vs. Oregon State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah State and Oregon State match up statistically:
Oregon State Offense vs. Utah State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 11 | 49 | |
| Line Yards | 3 | 13 | |
| Pass Success | 38 | 96 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 101 | 52 | |
| Big Play | 24 | 90 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 14 | |
| Finishing Drives | 3 | 31 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Utah State Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 118 | 91 | |
| Line Yards | 110 | 77 | |
| Pass Success | 8 | 67 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 76 | 74 |  |
| Big Play | 34 | 102 | |
| Havoc | 72 | 86 | |
| Finishing Drives | 97 | 87 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 120 | 65 |
| Coverage | 66 | 98 |
| Middle 8 | 20 | 31 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 50 | 69 |
| Plays per Minute | 89 | 10 |
| Rush Rate | 60.5% (25) | 52.4% (83) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Utah State vs. Oregon State Betting Pick
The LA Bowl will be played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood California, so how these teams played on the road this season will be an important factor.
Utah State won all seven of its road contests by an average margin of 38-21. Oregon State, meanwhile, went just 1-5 when traveling this season and was outscored by five points per game.
The dominant Beavers rushing attack totaled less than 90 rushing yards in two of those matchups against Purdue and Oregon.
Utah State’s explosive passing attack will find big chunk plays against a vulnerable Oregon State defense. The Beavers ranked 102nd in defending explosiveness this season and have struggled to defend the pass all season. They’ve allowed over 255 passing yards per contest, which ranks 99th in the nation, while giving up 7.5 yards per pass attempt.
Utah State faced a similar run-heavy offense in San Diego State in the Mountain West Championship. The Aggies held the Aztecs to 148 yards rushing on 39 attempts and won the game, 46-13. O
ver the last six games Utah State has allowed an average of 114 rushing yards and 3.2 yards per carry.
Utah State will be able to keep this game close, and there's value backing it with anything over a touchdown. I will also sprinkle the moneyline, as the Aggies have a real chance to find their 11th win for the third time in program history.
