Oregon State vs Washington Odds
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +158 |
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -192 |
The Beavers come out of the bye week refreshed and looking to extend their three-game win streak. To do so, they'll face what has consistently been one of the toughest challenges year in and year out.
Oregon State heads to Husky Stadium to take on Washington, a team that matches its 6-2 record on the season and 3-2 mark in conference play. The Huskies are also looking to extend a two-game win streak of their own.
I expect this game to be a hard-fought battle, but that hasn't always been the case. The Huskies lead the all-time series between the two, 67-35-4. However, the Beavers pulled out a close win last season in Corvallis, which ended a nine-game losing streak in this series.
Oregon State has not come away from Seattle with a win since 2008 and the Beavers last won two in a row against the Huskies in 2008-09. Does this Oregon State team have what it takes to rewrite the history books?
Oregon State Beavers
The Beavers may rank sixth in the Pac-12 when it comes to scoring offense, but it's not their fault the entire conference is stacked offensively.
Oregon State's 32.6 points per game put the Beavers as one of the top 50 teams nationally. The same goes for their 425 yards per game, which ranks 43rd among FBS teams.
Oregon State leads the conference in yards per pass and yards per attempt. The Beavers are a balanced offense that also ranks third in the Pac-12 with 191.9 rush yards per game.
However, there has been one glaring issue the Beavers can't seem to shake: Turnovers. Oregon State posts a turnover margin of .12 and has given up the ball 13 times this year.
The good news is they've been balanced their losses with 14 takeaways on the year, and the Huskies are in a similar situation with a turnover margin of +0.25 per game. Turnovers could very well decide this game between these two offensive-focused teams.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Beavers will have their hands full against the top passing offense in the conference. Oregon State has been solid and ranks 35th in Defensive Pass Success. It's been even better in Defensive Finishing Drives, coming in at 26th.
But will that be enough to stop the Huskies, who lead the nation in Havoc Allowed and are second in Offensive Pass Success?
The Washington Huskies offense is one of the best in the country. Led by Michael Penix Jr., a name I hope you know by now. Penix, a former Indiana standout, leads the nation in passing yards and has thrown just four interceptions this season.
He'll face a Beavers defense that limits teams to 22.8 points and a 67th-best 230.6 passing yards per game. There's also a less-than-favorable forecast with a 50% chance of rain and 13+ mph winds throughout the game in Seattle.
Despite that, I think the nation's leading passer will find a way to make do.
Defensively, the Huskies are a liability. They have limited teams to just 27.6 points per game, but there's something to be said about the competition they've faced. Cal, the second-worst scoring offense in the Pac-12, scored 20 points on the Huskies.
The Huskies also allowed Arizona State and Arizona to each rack up more than 35 points against them as Washington lost 45-38 to the Sun Devils.
Washington ranks 97th in Defensive Pass Success and is even worse when it matters most, coming in at 119th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Oregon State vs Washington Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon State and Washington match up statistically:
Oregon State Offense vs. Washington Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 40 | 65 | |
| Line Yards | 32 | 82 | |
| Pass Success | 31 | 97 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 36 | 23 | |
| Havoc | 47 | 102 | |
| Finishing Drives | 26 | 119 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Washington Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 18 | 88 | |
| Line Yards | 63 | 74 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 35 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 7 | 113 | |
| Havoc | 1 | 17 | |
| Finishing Drives | 4 | 26 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 41 | 46 |
| PFF Coverage | 40 | 109 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 122 | 54 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.3 (120) | 25.4 (42) |
| Rush Rate | 59.7% (24) | 42.4% (124) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Oregon State vs Washington Betting Pick
The Huskies have failed to cover the spread in four straight games, which only adds to my lack of confidence in Washington. Their offensive success is undeniable, and Penix is one of the best in the game when he's on the field.
However, I expect the Beavers' main goal to be to keep him off of it. Oregon State ranks 120th in seconds per play and 24th in rush rate. Their rush game has been solid and if they run into issues there, they have an even more significant advantage in the passing attack.
Washington has been winning games but has had to do so by scoring enough to offset the number of points its defense gives up. I'm confident it'll find a different level of success against their toughest test in the Pac-12 so far.
I advise taking the points with Oregon State at +3 or better, but I'll also be placing a wager on the Beavers to pick up the win outright in Seattle for the first time since the Sounders became an MLS team.
Pick: Oregon State +4.5 ⋅ Play to +3 |
