Oregon vs. Penn State Odds, Spread, Lines
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -102 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -166 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +138 |
I like Penn State +3.5 on Saturday night. Trusting James Franklin in a big game against a top-five team, what could go wrong?
For what it's worth, Franklin is just 18-24 ATS (42.9%), including 1-16 SU and 5-12 ATS (29.4%) against top-five competition. Franklin hasn't defeated a top-five opponent since October 2016. Since then, he's lost 11 straight.
However, I think he will have a good chance of breaking the seal in Indianapolis, which is a bit more of a favorable location for the Nittany Lions.
And although I expect an all-out effort by the Ducks, it's interesting that their chances of winning a national title might actually improve with a loss due to the way the bracket is structured.
Oregon is the lone remaining undefeated team in the country, but I don't think it's in an elite tier of its own. There are no truly elite teams this season, and I only have these teams separated by about two points power ratings-wise, so I gladly took the valuable hook.
I do think this Oregon defense is more vulnerable than many may realize. Keep in mind Oregon has only faced two high-quality offenses all year in Boise State and Ohio State. It allowed 34 and 31 in a pair of wins by a field goal or less in Eugene.
Penn State Has Key Edges
The key will be if Penn State can run the ball. If it can't, that will be problematic since Oregon can generate a pass rush without sending a blitz and has a very strong secondary that doesn't have any glaring holes.
If Penn State is living in known passing situations, that's not ideal with an underwhelming wide receiver corps and a backup right tackle who could struggle to contain a ferocious group of pass rushers if they know they can just tee off out of the block.
However, tight end Tyler Warren could still find plenty of success against an Oregon defense that has had some struggles against tight ends. Look no further than the Michigan game, where Colston Loveland racked up 112 yards on seven catches just over a month ago.
Either way, I believe the Nittany Lions will indeed have success running against a vulnerable Oregon run defense that ranks below the national average in Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush.
We've seen much worse rush offenses (Purdue) have success against this Ducks defense that has very underwhelming advanced metrics in the trenches in terms of Stuff Rate and Line Yards.
With a now fully healthy Nicholas Singleton and the creativity that offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has, I expect Penn State to find success in sustaining drives.
Oregon in Trouble?
Can Oregon do the same? I'm not entirely convinced against an elite Penn State defense that gives up nothing on the ground, ranking 15th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
That will lead to some obvious passing situations where the Nittany Lions' pass rush can get after Dillon Gabriel, whose numbers have always cratered under pressure throughout his career.
Additionally, if Penn State has more success running the ball than Oregon, that could ultimately lead to more success finishing drives with touchdowns in the red zone. That could make all of the difference in determining who ends up coming out on top.
With neither offense likely to flash an abundance of explosiveness, this will likely come down to who can have more success on early downs and avoid field goals in the red zone.
I'm siding with the Nittany Lions, but this is also a price play of taking over a field goal in a game I project closer to a pick'em.
One time, small game James. One time.
Pick: Penn State +3.5
