Each week on The Action Network Colleges Podcast, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each Saturday's college football slate.
Well, the ACC treated us well last week as Boston College and Miami both came through with relative ease. Let's see if we can find another winner or two for Week 4.
As you can see from our combined record below over the past three seasons, hitting at a 40% clip has still turned a profit of over 10 units across 80 bets.
- 2018-19: 29-47 +4.00 units
- 2020: 3-1 +6.24 units
Let's get into our two selections for Week 4: I'm kicking things off with an afternoon ACC kick and Collin will try to take us home in a primetime SEC showdown. If you're feeling lucky, a moneyline parlay of both pays 6-1.
Stuckey: Duke +175 at Virginia
- Spread: Virginia -4
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Date: Saturday, Sep. 26
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- TV: ACCN
- Location: Charlottesville, VA
Just like last week, I'm rolling with an ACC underdog. However, unlike last week when I faded the Blue Devils, I'm rolling with them this week.
Duke has played two games already while this will mark Virginia's first of the season. That should give the Blue Devils an edge, especially considering Virginia will be breaking in a new quarterback in Brennan Armstrong. Bryce Perkins no longer resides under center. He just did so much for UVA and masked major offensive line issues with his mobility. His importance can't be stressed enough.
Duke's strength is their defensive line, which should feast on Virginia's offensive line and new quarterback. We saw Duke do some damage against two stellar offensive lines against Boston College and Notre Dame in their first two games. The Blue Devils are down their top two corners but I'm not sure Virginia can take advantage on the outside after losing Perkins in addition to wide receivers Hasise Dubois and Joe Reed.
I know that Duke has started out 0-2, but it has dealt with an extreme amount of misfortune in the turnover and red zone departments. It's logical to assume some regression in both areas.
Wilson: South Carolina +155 vs. Tennessee
- Spread: Tennessee -3.5
- Over/Under: 44
- Date: Saturday, Sep. 26
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: SECN
- Location: Columbia, SC
South Carolina has made the proper adjustments to make some noise in the SEC East in 2020.
Long plagued by inefficient quarterback play, the Gamecocks hired Mike Bobo as offensive coordinator. Along with Bobo came Colorado State quarterback Collin Hill, who beat out incumbent starter Ryan Hilinski for the starting job.
The former Ram has a 23:11 TD to INT ratio with over 3,300 passing yards and has familiarity with Bobo's system. His stats sit in stark contrast to what we saw from Ryan Hilinski in 2019 when he had just nine completions of 20-plus yards in 430 dropbacks.
Tennessee returns 69% of their defense, but ranked 77th in pass breakups and may struggle to get pressure. Hill should have plenty of time to hit open receivers in Bobo's downfield passing attack. Offensively, the Volunteers did not get the boost expected with a new offensive coordinator. Jim Chaney’s first year in the role finished with a ranking of 84th in success rate.
Take the Gamecocks at home and the new-look downfield aerial attack against a Tennessee team that has dealt with COVID interruptions during camp.
