Each week on The Action Network Colleges Podcast, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each Saturday's college football slate.
After a smoking start to the season, we had our first goose egg in Week 4 with Duke and South Carolina. It's time to get back on the horse this week.
As you can see from our combined record below over the past three seasons, we've turned a profit of over eight units despite hitting at a below 40% clip.
- 2018-19: 29-47 +4.00 units
- 2020: 3-3 +4.24 units
Let's get into our two selections for Week 5: Collin will kick things off at noon in the SEC while I'm rolling with a Big 12 home dog in primetime. If you're feeling lucky, a moneyline parlay of both pays over 16-1.
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Wilson: Missouri +420
- Spread: Tennessee -12.5
- Over/Under: 48.5
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
- Time: Noon ET
- TV: SECN
- Location: Knoxville, TN
I think Tennessee is a tad overvalued here after its opening win against South Carolina. Not only did the Vols benefit from a pick 6 in that game, SC's star corner also went out with an injury. Credit to Tennessee for taking advantage but I didn't come away overly impressed.
Meanwhile, Missouri got its tune-up under new head coach Eli Drinkwitz. The Tigers were clearly over-matched against Alabama but can take away a few positives from that game.
I expect Mizzou to once again roll with both Shawn Robinson and Connor Bazelak under center against a Vols defense that allowed Collin Hill to throw for just under 300 yards with an inexperienced wide receiving group. I think Missouri can have some success through the air against a Tennessee defense that really missed Shawn Shamburger last week due to covid protocols. His status remains unknown for Saturday but he hasn't been practicing this week.
Bazelak struggled even when not under pressure (5/11 in non contested passes), so I think we'll see more of Robinson, who fits better in Drinkwitz's scheme. Robinson finished with completion rates of 78 and 72 percent when blitzed and not blitzed, respectively.
On the other side of the ball, I just don't trust Tennessee quarterback Jarrett Guarantano. And Missouri still has a very good defense. The Tigers held Alabama to 3 YPC in addition to a handful of hurries and two sacks on Mac Jones.
Per Sport Source Analytics, Guarantano finished with 11 poorly thrown balls and went 6 of 12 when blitzed. He's always at risk at having an awful game full of gifts for the other team.
Too much value to pass up here on Missouri, who could potentially improve drastically after getting a game under its belt against Alabama. We've seen plenty of teams make that Game 1 to Game 2 leap and Missouri fits the profile.
Stuckey: Iowa State +235
- Spread: Oklahoma -7
- Over/Under: 63.5
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
- Location: Ames, IA
How can I not roll with the Cyclones this week? It's officially Brocktober.
More importantly, I'm getting Matt Campbell as an underdog in October. Campbell, one of my favorite coaches to back in all of college football, has won 11 straight games in October over the past three seasons — six of which came as an underdog, including a stunner in Norman against these Sooners as 31-point underdogs. Campbell is also 4-0 ATS against Oklahoma, covering by an absurd 17 points per game on average.
I also have various early season concerns about Oklahoma on both sides of the ball, which you can read about in my game preview. Give me the more experienced quarterback and superior defense at home.
