Each week on The Action Network Colleges Podcast, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each Saturday's college football slate.
It's time to pick up the slack after two straight goose eggs.
- 2018-19: 29-47 +4.00 units
- 2020: 4-8 +1.59 units
Let's get into our Week 8 selections, which consist of two Power 5 pups. If you're feeling lucky, a moneyline parlay of both pays just under 6-1.
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Stuckey: Indiana +200
- Spread: Penn State +6.5
- Over/Under: 62
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 24
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: FS1
- Location: Bloomington, IN
In last week's piece, I said my choice came down to South Carolina and UTSA. Unfortunately, I went with the latter, but figured I'd once again share the list of moneyline underdogs I considered, all of whom I used in Round Robins this week: Indiana, Georgia Southern, Iowa State, Hawaii, Purdue, Georgia State, UTSA,and Missouri.
I ended up going with the Hoosiers, who I think are finally ready to pick up that elusive win against one of the Big 10 powerhouses.
Indiana boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the Big 10, with Michael Penix Jr. back at quarterback, Stevie Scott III in the backfield and plenty of returning production at wide receiver and tight end.
Keep your eye on Whop Philyor, who is a matchup nightmare on the outside. He has the potential to catch double-digit balls on any given Saturday and could lead the Big 10 in yards after catch once again this season.
This is also a Penn State secondary that showed plenty of weaknesses during the 2019 season.
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The Indiana offensive line is shifting some guys around, which is a bit of a concern against Penn State.
However, it's not as worrisome as usual with Micah Parsons deciding to opt out. He was arguably the best defensive player in all of college football. Additionally, the Nittany Lions lost other talent to the NFL across its defense.
On the other side of the ball, Penn State will be without running back Journey Brown for the season due to an undisclosed medical condition. Brown was a potential sleeper Heisman Trophy finalist.
Sean Clifford does return under center and will benefit from a very stout offensive line, in addition to one of the best tight ends in FBS. However, he did lose wide receiver KJ Hamler to the NFL.
I just can't stress enough how important Hamler was to that Penn State offense. He bailed them out of many situations with explosive plays in space.
Meanwhile, the Indiana defense is trending in the right direction and brings back as much production as any team in the conference. This group, which was young last year, should take an even bigger step forward. The Hoosiers did lose Marcelino Ball to an ACL injury, but I think Fitzgerald has the talent to fill in admirably at the "Husky" position.
Give me the Hoosiers here to pull off the upset over Penn State, which maybe gets caught peeking ahead to next week against Ohio State.
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Wilson: Iowa State +130
- Spread: Oklahoma State -3.5
- Over/Under: 52
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 24
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Location: Stillwater, OK
It's October aka Brocktober, which means we are backing Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy. Head coach Matt Campbell is a staggering 22-8-1 ATS in October. There could be some noise in that statistic, but his teams have consistently started slow and really turned it on after an early stumble.
First, I have to give credit where credit is due in regard to the Oklahoma State defense. The Cowboys have been fantastic to start the season, but do rank 45th in passing expected points. From a finishing drives perspective, this is the marquee matchup of the weekend.
The Cyclones rank fourth on offense and the Oklahoma State defense leads the nation in that same category.
On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders is set to return from injury. The sophomore quarterback has a large career gap in completion percentage between pressure and non-pressure attempts.
That could spell trouble against an Iowa State defense ranking seventh nationally in Sack Rate, per Football Outsiders. The Cyclones shouldn't have issues generating a pass rush against an Oklahoma State offensive line ranking 70th in Sack Rate.
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Furthermore, Oklahoma State has had issues in the red zone. While the Cowboys have scored on all 12 trips inside the 20, seven of those conversions were field goals. Getting back to Finishing Drives, Oklahoma State's offense ranks just 55th, while Iowa State's defense comes in at No. 7 in the nation.
Ultimately, I think Iowa State will have more success finishing drives off with touchdowns and be able to cause more havoc in the backfield. The Oklahoma State defense is no doubt much improved, but Purdy should have some chances to connect on a few big plays downfield.
Happy Brocktober.
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