Gamblers, take note — the Friday Night Lights have been turned on.
There are four games to get the weekend started, beginning with an ACC showdown between Duke and Virginia Tech in Blacksburg and concluding with a Friday night edition of Pac-12 After Dark featuring Arizona State and Cal.
Let's dive into our staff's three favorite betting strategies for tonight's tussles.
Odds as of Friday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Collin Wilson
- Game: San Jose State at Air Force
- Spread: Air Force -19
- Over/Under: 57.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
This line is right on target with our projections of Air Force -18 and SP+ makes it Air Force -19, but there's more than meets the eye for this game.
Those projections don't account for situational spots or certain advanced statistics.
San Jose State and third-year head coach Brent Brennan are coming off a 31-24 triumph over Arkansas. It was San Jose State's second win over an FBS opponent since 2017 and was easily the program's biggest win since 2006. Prior to their $1.5 million trip to Fayetteville, San Jose State was 0-14 in revenue games, losing by a combined score of 551-177.
Do not let the victory at Arkansas fool you into thinking the Spartans are contenders in the Mountain West. San Jose State sits outside the top 100 in plenty of categories. They rank near the bottom of the list in offensive line yards, stuff rate, total defense, sack rate and opponent 3rd down conversion rate.
San Jose State's poor rush defense now has to take on one of the nation's elite ground attacks in Colorado Springs, which has an elevation of 6,035 feet. Air Force should exhaust the Spartans, who have lost by a combined score of 82-16 in their two previous trips to Falcon Stadium.
Air Force averages the third-most rushing yards per game this season and its offensive line grades out in the top five in line yards, opportunity rate and stuff rate.
San Jose State will likely go to the air on offense but the Spartans will be met by a sturdy Air Force defense that ranks 35th in opponent passing yards. The Falcons have allowed just six passes of at least 20 yards this season.
This is a bad spot for San Jose State off a program-defining victory. The Falcons have Navy on deck, so Troy Calhoun will do everything against San Jose State to keep the triple-option humming.
The elevation will help Air Force, but expect a lockdown defense and one of the nation's leading rush attacks to cover the spread.
This line has bounced around between -18 and -19 for a few days, so be sure to find the best number around the market.
The Pick: Air Force -19
Stuckey
Game: Penn State at Maryland
Spread: Penn State -6.5
Over/Under: 61.5
Time: 8 p.m. ET, FS1
Penn State is undefeated, ranked No. 12 in the nation and has owned Maryland in this series. The Nittany Lions are 39-2-1 against the Terrapins all-time and have won their two most recent meetings by a combined score of 104-6.
But what have the Nittany Lions really done in 2019?
They’ve played three home games.
- A blowout over Idaho. Meaningless.
- A 32-point win over Buffalo looks impressive but they trailed at the half, were out-gained 429-357 and lost the time of possession 42:32-17:28.
- And then last week in their only real test of the season, they held on to beat Pitt 17-10 in another game they were out-gained in.
Color me unimpressed.
The offense isn't in rhythm with new quarterback Sean Clifford. He hasn’t been accurate, but even when he's been hitting receivers, they have had issues holding onto the ball. The timing of the entire passing offense seems off, which is something that the Nittany Lions had to overcome last season, as well.
I think it's a product of offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne, as this offense just hasn't looked as potent since Joe Moorhead left Happy Valley to take over at Mississippi State.
This is a tough spot for a young offense to get the passing game right as Maryland's defense has been terrific against the run. Both the Nittany Lions and Terps feature top-10 defenses against the run, but Maryland's got a star running back in Anthony McFarland.
No primary back has stepped up as the next “guy” at Penn State, while McFarland is the clear star of the show at Maryland. In a game where I expect two stout run defenses to dare the offenses to throw downfield, I’ll give Josh Jackson the edge over Clifford. More importantly, I trust McFarland to break a few more runs.
The Terps just aren't that far off behind Penn State from a power ratings perspective and I’d take Maryland at +6 or better.
The Pick: Maryland +6.5
Kyle Miller
- Game: Duke at Virginia Tech
- Spread: Virginia Tech -2.5
- Over/Under: 52.5
- Time: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
It’s been a pretty rough season for Virginia Tech and they’ve been downgraded in my power ratings accordingly. Despite the hefty downward I made on the Hokies, I still make them a 7.5-point favorite over Duke on Friday night.
Their head coach has come under some serious scrutiny recently but I still really trust Justin Fuente as an offensive coach. That may sound crazy since the most recent time we saw Virginia Tech on the football field they put up just 24-points against FCS Furman. Maybe it is crazy but I think that they’ll come out much improved after a bye week with Fuente.
The Duke defense has given up a ton of explosive plays and should be ripe for the picking for Virginia Tech. The only positive from the Hokies’ offensive performances so far is their ability to hit big pass plays. Look for a bunch of those as Virginia Tech covers this small number at home.
The Pick: Virginia Tech -3 or better
