For the past four seasons on our college football betting podcast (now Big Bets on Campus), Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each Saturday's slate.
We finally got our sweep last week with Purdue and Memphis. Hopefully, we can continue the recent upswing through the end of the season. For Week 11, we're rolling with a pair of afternoon short home pups.
- 2018-20: 39-67 +5.1 units
- 2021: 8-12 -0.6 units
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pays just over 4-1 odds.
Stuckey: Florida State +120
- Spread: Miami -2.5
- Over/Under: 60.5
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 13
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Tallahassee, FL
Florida State looked awful last week, but you can't take too much from that game considering the team dealt with a massive flu outbreak all week. As a result, they did not have the services of starting quarterback Jordan Travis and a couple of other key players.
Fortunately for head coach Mike Norvell, everyone returned to practice on Sunday, and I've seen nothing but positive reports out of Tallahassee throughout the week. FSU should be ready to roll here against its in-state rival.
The loss of Travis last week was particularly devastating as the Noles have been a completely different team when he's under center. If you isolate the offensive plays with Travis under center, the FSU offense has actually performed pretty well. In contrast, it's been extremely ugly with McKenzie Milton in there.
Here are the season-long statistics for both quarterbacks:
- Travis: 66-105 (62.9%) 7.7 ypa 11 TD 5 INT 152.9 Rating
- Milton: 80-137 (58.4%) 5.7 ypa 3 TD 5 INT 106.2 Rating
Travis also brings an added element in the run game whereas Milton does not.
It's no surprise that Florida State has gone 3-2 in games Travis has started with the two losses coming on the road in a close game against Clemson and at home against Notre Dame in overtime in a game Milton had to finish after Travis got injured. Meanwhile, Florida State is 0-4 when Milton starts, including a home loss to FCS Jacksonville State.
The Noles have averaged a whopping 20 more points (37-17) when Travis starts at quarterback. It's complete night and day — and I don't think the market has properly adjusted for how much better FSU has been with Travis under center. The young defense has also continued to improve as the season has progressed.
In regards to Miami, I do have to give credit to head coach Manny Diaz, who I thought had lost this team earlier this season. However, the Canes have since rallied. They have won three straight but only by a combined eight points, so let's not get carried away with the Hurricanes' resurgence.
Freshman Tyler Van Dyke has played extremely well and looks like the quarterback of the future for the Hurricanes, but this is still a mistake-prone Miami team that loves to shoot itself in the foot and also hates tackling.
You can usually throw out the records when these two teams meet. I think that's the case once again in what I make pretty close to a coin flip with Travis back. I actually make FSU a very small favorite here, so I'm happy to grab the plus-money with the home pup.
Wilson: Tulane +130
- Spread: Tulsa -3
- Over/Under: 55.5
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 13
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPNU
- Location: New Orleans, LA
Similar to Stuckey, I'm also fading the Hurricanes but of the Golden variety.
How will Tulsa respond after coming so close to knocking a College Football Playoff contender from an undefeated season? Last week, Tulsa finished the game with four consecutive drives that each ended in Cincinnati territory with only a single touchdown to show for it. And it ultimately came up just short at the very end to potentially force overtime.
With a 3-6 record on the season, head coach Philip Montgomery's bunch must sweep the remaining schedule to get to bowl eligibility, so there's still some motivation, but this remains a potential flat spot.
That scoring inefficiency we saw last week against Cincinnati is actually a reflection of the season in general for Tulsa, which ranks 113th in offensive finishing drives. The complete lack of a rushing attack has made for tough sledding once the field shrinks in opponent territory.
Tulane does have a 1-8 record, but the Green Wave have been very competitive throughout the season, starting with a five-point loss on the road against Oklahoma to open the season. In their most recent game, they dropped another close one to UCF by a final score of 14-10. The schedule has been absolutely daunting as well with FBS games against:
- SMU
- Ole Miss
- Oklahoma
- Houston
- UCF
- Cincinnati
- ECU
- UAB
Five of those eight teams are ranked and all of them are above .500 with a combined record of 57-15. This will serve as a nice break for Tulane as it continues its search for that elusive first FBS victory in 2021.
Michael Pratt returned last week from concussion protocol, so there's no longer any concerns there. And the defense played one of its best games of the season. I think Tulane gets that elusive first FBS victory over a Tulsa team that may come out a little flat. The difference may very well come in the Finishing Drives department. Tulsa ranks outside the top 100 in both offense and defense.
I'm sure Tulane would also like to give some payback to the Golden Hurricanes for an overtime loss last year in which Tulsa made a miraculous comeback and then won it in the extra frame on a pick six near the goal line.
