PHOENIX, Ariz. — The Penn State Nittany Lions (12-2, 8-1 Big Ten) and Boise State Broncos (12-1, 7-0 Mountain West) meet in the Fiesta Bowl in the College Football Playoff semifinals. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The College Football Playoff moves on to the next round, a quadruple-header of neutral-site games to be played in the New Year's Six Bowls.
The first comes from Glendale, Arizona, on New Year's Eve from State Farm Stadium.
Boise State won the Mountain West and received a bye in the bracket thanks to a better ranking than ACC champion Clemson. The Broncos will be fresh for the quarterfinal game against 6th-seeded Penn State.
On the other side, the Nittany Lions already obtained their 1st-ever playoff victory on Dec. 21 — a 38-10 romp over SMU.
The winner of the Fiesta Bowl will move on to the national semifinal game in the Capital One Orange Bowl on Jan. 9 and will meet Notre Dame or Georgia.
Penn State enters as a -11 favorite with the over/under set at 53.
Let's dive into my Penn State vs. Boise State predictions and college football picks for the Fiesta Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal on Tuesday, Dec. 31.
Penn State vs Boise State Pick, Prediction
- Penn State vs. Boise State Pick: Over 52.5
My Boise State vs. Penn State best bet is on both teams to go over the total, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs Boise State Broncos Odds, Line
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -115 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -105 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
- Spread: Penn State -11.5, Boise State +11.5
- Over/Under: 54.5 Total Points
- Moneyline: Penn State ML -500, Boise State ML +375
Penn State vs Boise State Fiesta Bowl CFP Preview
Penn State Nittany Lions
Head coach James Franklin gave the fan base a treat in the opening round, leading SMU at halftime in State College by a score of 28-0.
Defensive coordinator Tom Allen fired it up with a number of defensive scores, dominating the skies with three interceptions. In fact, a defensive pick-six got all of the scoring started for the Nittany Lions.
DOMINIC DELUCA 🤌 pic.twitter.com/QC8tWgXGub
— Onward State (@OnwardState) December 21, 2024
The Nittany Lions harassed the inside zone rushing attack of the Mustangs, limiting SMU to just 2.8 yards per play in 33 rushing attempts.
SMU failed to generate an explosive drive, a possession that averages more than 10 yards per play.
In the limited drives that crossed the Penn State 40-yard line, SMU averaged just 1.8 points per trip. The defense produced 11 tackles for loss and seven quarterback hurries.
The offense, under coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, posted four empty drives before rattling off four consecutive scoring possessions.
Running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen were consistent, combining for 25 carries and 160 yards using the run concepts of outside zone and man blocking with a one-two punch of counter and power.
Explosives continued to be an issue for Penn State's ground game, posting just a single rush over 20 yards. The good news is quarterback Drew Allar keeps playing mistake-free football in the pocket.
Allar's odds continue to climb in the NFL Draft markets, leading a Penn State offense that is 3rd in Passing Success Rate.
The junior dominates in a pressured pocket, failing to record a single turnover-worthy play in 125 dropbacks with a crowded pocket. Allar ranks 15th in this category when hitting receivers in stride, according to Sports Info Solutions' grades for quarterbacks' on-target rates.
Boise State Broncos
Every spring, Action Network's college team hands off a number of players to our NFL experts, Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon, for all things fantasy football.
The biggest present under the Christmas tree this season may be the arrival of running back Ashton Jeanty. Soon to be everyone's first-round hope, the junior challenged to be the single-season leading rusher in college football history during 2024.
Jeanty fell short with 2,496 yards, but 29 touchdowns and two fumbles make him the most dominant force in the game.
Any fan who didn't give college football enough attention knew Jeanty's name after a near upset of Oregon in Week 2.
Ashton Jeanty is the best college RB since __________ pic.twitter.com/N9mnRJLjIT
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 8, 2024
Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter returned to Boise in his position this season, calling a heavy amount of outside zone for his star rusher.
The Broncos run the ball on 57% of snaps and call rush at a top-20 rate during first downs.
Boise State received a major boost on the offensive line before the regular season's conclusion. Center Mason Randolph returned to action in Week 14 against Oregon State after a 13-week injury stint, paving the way for Jeanty to rush for 435 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the last two games.
The bigger question for Boise State comes when the offense gets off schedule.
Quarterback Maddux Madsen ended the season with an outstanding 22 touchdowns to three interceptions, but the inspection under the hood says something is off.
The junior finished with nine big-time throws to 16 turnover-worthy plays, a number that skyrocketed when opponents sent a quality pass rush.
Maddux ended the season with 104 pressured dropbacks, resulting in a single big-time throw and eight turnover-worthy plays. The Boise State quarterback saw his mistake rate of 2.6% zoom to 6.9% in a pressured pocket.
Defensive coordinator Erik Chinander has a long history of calling three-man front defenses at UCF and Nebraska. One consistent issue at those stops is his team's ability to tackle in space.
Chinander cited "leverage issues [and] some eye control" as the root cause of Boise State's poor tackle grading.
PFF grades the Broncos as the second-worst tackling team in the nation, supported by a poor rank in broken tackles plus missed tackles allowed.
Penn State vs Boise State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Penn State and Boise State match up statistically:
Penn State Offense vs. Boise State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 31 | |
| Line Yards | 17 | 29 | |
| Pass Success | 3 | 58 | |
| Havoc | 12 | 19 | |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 26 | |
| Quality Drives | 5 | 33 | |
Boise State Offense vs. Penn State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 16 | 24 | |
| Line Yards | 39 | 4 | |
| Pass Success | 16 | 27 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 11 | |
| Finishing Drives | 7 | 25 | |
| Quality Drives | 19 | 17 |  |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 50 | 132 |
| PFF Coverage | 21 | 38 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 70 | 74 |
| Middle 8 | 8 | 24 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.0 (51) | 25.5 (41) |
| Rush Rate | 58% (34) | 58% (27) |
Penn State vs Boise State Picks, Best Bets
There are two main handicaps for the Fiesta Bowl when a semifinal spot in the Orange Bowl will be solidified.
First, will Boise State's rushing attack with Ashton Jeanty be enough to generate scoring opportunities? Second, will the Broncos contain Penn State ball-carriers in space to muster enough stops?
Starting with the Boise State offense, Penn State has been solid against outside zone with a 57% Success Rate. The Nittany Lions allow just one explosive every 10 attempts, but there may not have been a rusher with Jeanty's ability throughout Big Ten play.
While the domination of SMU is sure to be fresh in investors' minds, the Mustangs run an exclusive inside zone.
The better comparison for this Penn State defense is the outside zone nature of Oregon with running backs Jordan James and Noah Whittington in the Big Ten Championship game.
James and Whittington combined to force eight missed tackles on 15 rushing attempts, each creating two explosive rushing attempts.
Oregon found success behind an offensive line that ranks 12th in Line Yards, but Boise State has a major downshift in numbers. The offensive line for the Broncos comes in at 29th in Line Yards against a strength of schedule that sits outside the top 75.
Look for Jeanty to have some success breaking through a subpar offensive line.
Outside zone is the concept Oregon used to dominate Penn State in the conference championship, but the number of broken tackles made by Jeanty will dictate how many attempts Madsen will have in passing downs.
If Boise State gets off schedule with the offense, Madsen will be expected to throw into a Penn State defense that runs Cover 1, quarters and man coverage. The Broncos' signal-caller has only had success against Cover 3 this season, a scheme Allen rarely calls for the Nittany Lions defense.
There may be no resistance for the Penn State offense, as Kotelnicki continues to put up gaudy numbers after a horrific performance against Ohio State.
Not only do the run concepts for the Nittany Lions show that Allen and Singleton will have plenty of first downs, but Allar is expected to see minimal pressure from Boise State's pass rush that ranks 79th.
Furthermore, the Broncos defense is 115th in creating contested catches, a sign that Allar will continue to generate a high level of success and explosives against Boise's quarters coverage.
Ultimately, being the second-to-last ranked tackling team in the nation is what will keep Boise State from challenging in this game. The Broncos missed a combined 29 tackles in their last two games against UNLV and Oregon State.
No props can be considered for any of Penn State's weapons. Singleton and Allen should get the necessary rushing yards, while tight end Tyler Warren and wideout Harrison Wallace III are at the mercy of Kotelnicki's usage during the game.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings place Penn State as a 13-point favorite, a number that would give a lean to the Nittany Lions on the side.
The total may be the better investment, though, with a projection above the key numbers of 55 and 59.
The Penn State rushing attack should create scoring opportunities, and Allar isn't expected to receive pressure in passing attempts.
Tackling will remain the biggest issue for Boise State, as any Nittany Lions ball carrier should reach the second level for additional yards.
Look for Jeanty to replicate the success of James and Whittington from the Big Ten Championship, as Oregon prefers a similar run concept with an outside zone.
While Penn State owns a Success Rate of 57% in that scenario, there are signs those numbers are beefed up by a number of impotent rush offenses in conference play.
Boise State may challenge to backdoor the side or head coach James Franklin may decide to pour on another touchdown at the end, but the better wager is on plenty of points to be scored.
Pick: Over 52.5 (Play to 55)
Penn State vs Boise State Streaming, Channel, How to Watch, Location, Start Time
| Location: | State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ |
| Date: | Tuesday, Dec. 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Penn State takes on Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl in Phoenix on Tuesday, Dec. 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Penn State vs Boise State Betting Trends to Know
Penn State vs Boise State Weather Forecast
