Penn State vs Indiana Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -520 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +410 |
Penn State could not hang on to a fourth-quarter lead against Ohio State last week and fell by a score of 44-31.
The Nittany Lions enter this matchup at 6-2 overall (3-2 Big Ten) and came in at No. 15 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. Penn State will look to bounce back when it heads to Bloomington this week to battle Indiana.
The Hoosiers are coming off of a bye week after losing to Rutgers, 44-31, on Oct.22. Indiana started off 3-0 but has since to fallen to 3-5 and 1-4 in Big Ten play. It'll be looking to snap its five-game losing streak against Penn State. However, that won't be an easy proposition.
Penn State has dominated this series since joining the Big Ten and holds a 23-2 series lead. It has won seven of the last eight meetings, including a 24-0 victory in Happy Valley last season.
However, Indiana has covered three of the last five meetings.
Penn State is a two-touchdown favorite this week. Can the Nittany Lions handle the big number this year?
Penn State had the No. 2 team in the country on its home field with a five-point lead in the fourth quarter.
However, it was undone by turnovers. Penn State gave the ball away four times last week, which turned into 24 points for Ohio State. That's particularly gut-wrenching in a game lost by 13 points.
Quarterback Sean Clifford was the man responsible, as he threw three interceptions and lost a fumble. Aside from the turnovers, he had a solid day with 371 passing yards and three touchdowns.
For the season, he has 1,816 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions on a 62.8% completion percentage. He'll have a favorable matchup against Indiana, as the Hoosiers rank 122nd in Defensive Passing Success Rate.
Penn State has two talented freshman running backs in Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Singleton leads the team with 606 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 6.3 yards per carry. Allen has racked up 472 rushing yards and five score on 5.2 yards a tote.
However, it was Allen who had the better day against OSU with 76 yards rushing and a touchdown.
Wide receiver Parker Washington is also coming off of a big game last week with 11 receptions for 179 yards and a touchdown. He has 41 receptions for 567 yards and two touchdowns, which have come in his last two games.
Western Kentucky transfer Mitchell Tinsley has hauled in 33 passes for 364 yards and four scores. Meanwhile junior tight end Brenton Strange has set career-highs with 21 receptions for 258 yards and four touchdowns.
Penn State's run defense took a notable hit when it allowed 400 rushing yards to Michigan. It has since fallen to 57th in rushing yards allowed per game and 58th in rushing success rate. However, it allowed just 98 rushing yards against Ohio State and should fare well against Indiana as well.
Where Penn State excels is defending the pass. It leads the nation with 60 pass breakups. It also ranks eighth in the FBS in completion percentage allowed and 39th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
Having potential first-round pick Joey Porter Jr., along with safety Ji'ayir Brown, on the back end helps. Porter has 11 breakups, while Brown has three interceptions, 3.5 tackles for loss, a sack and two pass breakups.
Penn State also ranks sixth in Havoc and 17th in pass-rush grade.
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana makes no illusions about attempting to run the ball. Indiana ranks dead last in the FBS in run rate at 38.1%, and it's not very successful when it does run. The Hoosiers rank 105th in Rushing Success Rate. Top back Shaun Shivers averages just 3.9 yards per carry.
Indiana isn't much more successful when it throws, ranking 98th in Passing Success Rate. However, Indiana ranks first in the FBS in seconds per play. Its quick tempo can give opponents fits at times and catch them out of position. It was particularly notable in the first half against Michigan.
Quarterback Connor Bazelak has thrown for 2,099 yards, 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions. However, he's completing just 54.9 of his passes and averaging 5.1 yards per attempt. With 47 pass attempts per game, there are a lot of receptions to go around to his receivers.
Indiana has nine players with double-digit receptions and four with over 20 receptions. Wide receiver Cam Camper leads the way with 46 receptions for 569 yards and two touchdowns. However, he went down with a torn ACL against Rutgers last week and will miss the rest of the season.
North Carolina transfer Emery Simmons has 29 receptions for 309 yards and touchdown.
Indiana could really struggle on the line of scrimmage against Penn State. Offensively, it ranks 129th in Line Yards, 114th in pass blocking and 93rd in Havoc Allowed. That has contributed to Bazelak being sacked 23 times and struggling to finish drives.
Defensively, Indiana will have an advantage in Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate Allowed, where they rank 27th.
The key will be limiting explosive runs, particularly when Singleton is in. Singleton has six runs of 30 yards or more, but outside of that, he averages three yards per carry.
Penn State might opt to focus on attacking Indiana's porous pass defense instead. The Hoosiers are 102nd in passing yards per game and 127th in passing touchdowns allowed per game.
Additionally, it's unlikely that Indiana will put much pressure on Clifford, as it ranks 125th in pass rush grade.
Penn State vs Indiana Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Penn State and Indiana match up statistically:
Penn State Offense vs. Indiana Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 102 | 27 | |
| Line Yards | 77 | 53 | |
| Pass Success | 50 | 122 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 60 | 125 | |
| Havoc | 26 | 96 | |
| Finishing Drives | 30 | 55 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Indiana Offense vs. Penn State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 105 | 58 | |
| Line Yards | 129 | 26 | |
| Pass Success | 98 | 39 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 114 | 17 | |
| Havoc | 93 | 6 | |
| Finishing Drives | 102 | 31 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 98 | 108 |
| PFF Coverage | 55 | 117 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 60 | 43 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.6 (46) | 19.0 (1) |
| Rush Rate | 50.9% (78) | 38.1% (129) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Penn State vs Indiana Betting Pick
Penn State lost by 20 or more points to Michigan and Ohio State, but it also won handily in the majority of its wins this season. In fact, it has won by double digits in each of its last five wins, including its last two Big Ten victories.
I expect Penn State to have little difficulty with Indiana this week, especially given that the Nittany Lions' strengths match up well with the Hoosiers' weaknesses on both sides of the ball.
The number is the key here, as Penn State is a 14-point favorite. PSU should win handily, and I would play it up to -15, which offers a bit of protection in case the Nittany Lions win a 28-13 kind of game.
Pick: Penn State -13.5 ⋅ Play to -15 |
