Let's take a look at the college football odds for Penn State vs. Michigan State and find a pick for their Big Ten NCAAF game on Friday, Nov. 24.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan State Spartans Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-22.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+22.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +1000 |
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If there’s a singular reason why conference realignment is bad, it’s because it has killed the yearly battle for the Land Grant Trophy between Penn State and Michigan State.
This season marks the final annual installment of this rivalry for the ugliest trophy in college football that looks like something from your sixth-grade woodshop class.
In 37 meetings between the teams, the rivalry is miraculously tied at 18-18-1, so this one is for all of the marbles.
An injury last week to Drew Allar leaves the Penn State offense in even more flux than usual. Will the Nittany Lions have enough offensive firepower to cover a three-score spread?
Penn State Nittany Lions
The post-Mike Yurcich era of Penn State football felt like more of the same for a Nittany Lions offense that has been the Achilles' heel to the team’s College Football Playoff hopes.
Penn State’s 322 yards of offense and 27 points against Rutgers were both below its conference average, contributing toward a small 10-6 Penn State lead at the half.
The ground game (234 yards, three touchdowns) had its best performance of the season against Big Ten competition, thanks in large part to the game’s leading rusher, Beau Pribula.
Pribula is the elephant in the room leading to this game. Drew Allar suffered a shoulder injury midway through the third quarter against Rutgers after completing just 6-of-13 passes for 79 yards.
Pribula replaced Allar for the rest of the game but only threw one pass — a completion for nine yards — as Franklin and the cast of new play-callers opted to just have the dual-threat Pribula use his legs or hand it off.
James Franklin said Monday, "We expect Drew [Allar] to go," but it doesn’t really feel like whoever is at quarterback for Penn State will make much of a difference to the outcome of the game.
Allar is a better traditional pocket passer, but Penn State is at its best in the Franklin era running an RPO offense a la Trace McSorley, something that Pribula excels at.
Either way, the Penn State defense will make sure its offensive counterparts don’t have to do much scoring. Rutgers was the fourth team to score single-digit points this season against a Penn State unit that ranks fourth nationally in scoring defense.
The Nittany Lions, who are second in total defense, also have one of the best front sevens in the country. Penn State’s 41 sacks and 89 tackles for loss are second and fifth, respectively, in the country.
Michigan State Spartans
It’s honestly a little impressive that Michigan State has scrapped together four wins given all the circumstances surrounding the program. The Spartans took down Indiana in Bloomington last week for their second win in three weeks.
Michigan State has avoided the cellar of the Big Ten East despite boasting one of the worst offenses in America. The Spartans switched from quarterback Noah Kim to Katin Houser full-time midway through the season, and it’s really only paid dividends in the turnover department.
The Spartans are just 87th in Pass Success Rate and average only 186 passing yards against Big Ten defenses.
While Michigan State has shuffled chairs at the quarterback position, its running attack is even worse. The Spartans are last in the Big Ten with 99.3 rushing yards per game and have scored only one rushing touchdown in eight conference games.
The Spartans aren't setting the world on fire defensively either. Michigan State’s 29.5 points allowed per conference game are the third-worst in the Big Ten, despite having played Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska — the three lowest-scoring offenses in the Big Ten other than Michigan State.
Sparty is worse against the pass, where it ranks 87th in Pass Success Rate Allowed. If Penn State's receivers were to finally have a semi-decent day, it’d be against a Spartans secondary that ranks 124th in PFF coverage grading.
Penn State vs Michigan State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Penn State and Michigan State match up statistically:
Penn State Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 14 | 73 | |
| Line Yards | 15 | 77 | |
| Pass Success | 60 | 87 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 49 | |
| Finishing Drives | 8 | 72 | |
| Quality Drives | 17 | 68 | |
Michigan State Offense vs. Penn State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 126 | 2 | |
| Line Yards | 114 | 2 | |
| Pass Success | 87 | 5 | |
| Havoc | 94 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 123 | 10 | |
| Quality Drives | 113 | 3 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 60 | 73 |
| PFF Coverage | 19 | 124 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 19 | 18 |
| Middle 8 | 9 | 90 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.3 (73) | 26.8 (63) |
| Rush Rate | 56.6% (32) | 48.8% (96) |
Penn State vs Michigan State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Regardless of how the quarterback situation plays out for Penn State, I don’t think it affects the final score much. The play-calling en route to a Nittany Lions victory will differ, but the amount of points scored is probably the same.
The Penn State defense is in line for its fifth game of the season holding its opponent to single digits, which will allow the Nittany Lions offense to stay pretty vanilla. That'll give them the opportunity to run the ball close to 40 times like they did against Rutgers.
The under has hit in Penn State’s last two games, and with the uncertainty at the quarterback position, it’s destined for three unders in a row.
