The No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2, 8-1 Big Ten) meet the No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) in the Orange Bowl and College Football Playoff showdown on Thursday, Jan. 9. The game will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Penn State has rolled through the first two rounds of the playoff, dismantling SMU in the 1st round by a score of 38-10 before dominating Boise State in the quarterfinals, 31-14.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, has had 2 impressive showings in the CFP as well. The Fighting Irish beat upstart Indiana, 27-17, in the 1st round and toppled Georgia, 23-10, in the Sugar Bowl last week.
Notre Dame enters this game as a -1.5 favorite with the over/under set at 44.5.
Let's take a look at our Penn State vs. Notre Dame picks and college football predictions for the Orange Bowl and CFP semifinals on Thursday, Jan. 9.
Penn State vs. Notre Dame Picks, Predictions
By Pete Ruden
And then there were four.
Penn State and Notre Dame kick off the semifinals of the College Football Playoff on Thursday, Jan. 9 with a spot in the national title game on the line.
That's right. That means either James Franklin — who has infamously struggled to win big games against top-10 teams — or a team that lost to Northern Illinois at home will play to hoist the CFP trophy in the biggest game of the season.
But over the last few weeks, these teams haven't looked like those programs with past scars.
Penn State rolled through an SMU team that impressed in its first season in the ACC, as well as a Boise State squad led by Heisman finalist Ashton Jeanty — one of the best players in the country.
On the other side, Notre Dame has rattled off 12 straight wins since dropping that game to the Huskies, including a double-digit victory over a Georgia program that has won two of the last three national titles.
If anything, Penn State and Notre Dame seem to be in the process of shedding their old identities as teams that couldn't hang with the best of the best in the College Football Playoff era.
With the spread within a field goal, we polled 12 members of our college football staff to get their takes on the side and over/under, as well as a couple of other markets. Let's dive in.
Spread
Our Spread Pick: Notre Dame -1.5
Our staff is almost perfectly split down the middle on Irish vs. Lions.
There are plenty of ways to break down this game.
You could look at the coaching mismatch, which pits Small Game James Franklin (5-12 ATS vs. top-five competition; notoriously can’t win the big one) against Big Game Marcus Freeman (10-2 ATS vs. ranked competition).
Freeman’s been excellent during this two-game College Football Playoff run with his aggressiveness and decisiveness.
On the flip side, Penn State’s only losses this season came against literal top-five teams in Oregon and Ohio State.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame didn’t play a top-five team until the second round of the College Football Playoff — when it beat Georgia and its backup quarterback — and also lost to Northern Illinois in the non-con.
From a schematic perspective, I’m unsure if Notre Dame’s rush-heavy offense can find sustained success against Penn State’s elite front seven.
The Irish aerial attack has been far from elite this year (sub-50th nationally in EPA per Dropback), mainly leaning on the explosive Riley Leonard-Jeremiyah Love-Jadarian Price rushing trio that ranks ninth in EPA per Rush.
You can’t run on Penn State, which ranks in the top 10 in every defensive rush metric imaginable. The Nittany Lions allowed just 3.1 yards per carry all year, and only two opposing backs to rush for more than 100 yards in a game.
That said, how will the Penn State defense adjust if stud edge rusher Abdul Carter can’t suit up?
But, at the same time, how will the Irish rushing attack fare if Love can’t suit up?
On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame is an impenetrable three-level passing defense ranking third in PFF’s Coverage grades, ninth in its Pass Rush grades and first in EPA per Drobpack allowed.
It’ll be challenging for the Andy Kotelnicki-Drew Allar duo to scheme up an efficient passing offense, especially if Freeman brings a perfect game plan for superstar tight end Tyler Warren.
But Penn State is not a lifeless rushing attack. Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton are as good of a running back room as you’ll see in the nation. The Nittany Lions rushed for over 200 yards in nine separate games this year, including five of the past seven after a midseason swoon.
Is there a red-zone edge to be found? Both teams rank among the top 12 nationally in Finishing Drives on offense and defense.
Ultimately, the game could come down to special teams. Notre Dame’s kicking situation has been sketchy this season, but it seems to have resolved itself in the playoff with Mitch Jeter getting healthy (5-for-6 on field goals, including 3-for-3 against Georgia).
Still, both teams rank below average in SP+’s Special Teams ratings.
This game has the makings of an all-timer. Good luck whichever way you bet it. I wouldn’t blame you if you decided to sit back and enjoy as a college football fan.
Over/Under
Over 44.5 | 1 Pick |
Pass | 0 Picks |
Under 44.5 | 11 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 44.5
Contrary to the spread, our staff is almost entirely convinced we’re in for a low-scoring game.
I agree — I was one of the staff members who voted for the under.
I don’t know how Notre Dame moves the football.
I’m not overly worried about Carter’s injury, as most of his value comes as an edge rusher (his 75.7 PFF Rush Defense grade ranks 176th of 868 qualified FBS edge rushers). Opponents can’t run on Penn State, with or without Carter.
If Notre Dame can’t create those ever-important rush explosives, the Irish will end up in obvious passing situations, and Leonard will get flustered.
He’s toast if he’s forced to make a downfield throw on third-and-long under pressure, given he posted an absurd 41.3 PFF Passing Grade in crowded pockets this season with a 42% completion percentage, 3.8 yards per attempt, two Big-Time Throws and five Turnover-Worthy Plays.
Notre Dame scored 23 points in its quarterfinal matchup, but seven came off a short field, and another seven came from a 98-yard kickoff return. Penn State won’t make the same mistakes.
Meanwhile, I don’t trust Allar to beat Notre Dame’s transcendent passing defense. The Irish boast an uber-aggressive unit, blitzing often while playing man coverage on the back end. Allar’s pre-snap motion calls have been concerning recently, and he’s completed less than half his passes in pressured pockets (47%).
If — as we expect — Freeman doubles or brackets Warren while playing Cover 1, Allar will be forced into sideline completions down the field.
How the Lions fare depends on Harrison Wallace and Omari Evans consistently winning in one-on-one coverage. While the duo has trended up lately (especially Evans), I’m not fully ready to put my money behind a duo that barely eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards this season.
Penn State can run the ball, but that will create more methodical drives than explosive drives, churning the clock and limiting possessions. The under will look pretty good if we get a seven-minute, 15-play Nittany Lions drive that ends in a field goal because Notre Dame refuses to break in the red zone.
More Ways to Bet Penn State vs. Notre Dame
Alt. Total Under 38.5 (+190 · Play to +175)
By Alex Hinton
In its first two College Football Playoff games, Penn State has allowed 10 points to SMU and 14 points to Boise State despite four red-zone trips for the Broncos. This season, the Nittany Lions are seventh in scoring defense, surrendering 15.8 points per game.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame gave up 17 points to Indiana and 10 points to Georgia. It's allowing just 13.6 points per game, which is second-best in the FBS behind Ohio State.
With these two elite defenses, points will be at a premium. The total for this CFP semifinal opened up at 46.5 points and has come down to 44.5 at some books. However, we may see even less scoring than that.
Notre Dame’s quarterfinal win over Georgia saw 33 points scored. Its opening win over Indiana needed three touchdowns in the last five minutes to reach 44 points. Additionally, its other big games against Ohio State over the last three years both finished with 31 points.
In 2022, Penn State had a shootout against Ohio State in a 44-31 loss. However, the last two meetings finished with 32 and 33 points. Additionally, last year’s loss to Michigan finished with 39 points, which would just go over this number, but it continues the trend of low-scoring affairs in big games.
Penn State may not have star edge rusher Abdul Carter (game-time decision) for this game, but either way, this Notre Dame passing attack is not one to fear. The Fighting Irish won despite just 90 passing yards from Riley Leonard, who's averaging only 170 passing yards per game.
Between Leonard, Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, both of these teams want to run the football. That will also keep the clock running.
While I love the under at its current line, it's worth sprinkling the alternate total of under 38.5 for the value as well.
Kaytron Allen Anytime TD (+120 · Play to +100)
By Doug Ziefel
The Penn State Nittany Lions have one of the country's best dynamic duos at tailback.
For the majority of the season, Nicholas Singleton has led the way on the ground and through the air, but down the stretch, we've seen Kaytron Allen carve a more significant role in the offense.
Over the last four games, Allen has led the way in terms of carries, averaging 14 to Singleton's 12.
This shift has also led to more valuable carries for Allen, as he's recorded seven red-zone rush attempts to Singleton's eight in that same span — but five of Singleton's eight red-zone carries came in one game against Maryland.
It's clear that Allen is well involved down on the goal line, as he should be since he's the more bruising back. He has scored in 9-of-15 games, which means his odds of finding pay dirt in this matchup should be higher regardless of the matchup.
Take the value here at any plus-money price, as the Nittany Lions should pound the ball into the end zone with Allen against the Fighting Irish.
Penn State vs. Notre Dame Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 44.5 -115o / -105u | +100 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 44.5 -115o / -105u | -120 |
- Penn State vs. Notre Dame Spread: Penn State +1.5 · Notre Dame -1.5
- Penn State vs. Notre Dame Over/Under: 44.5
- Penn State vs. Notre Dame Moneyline: Penn State +100 · Notre Dame -120
