The No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) host the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1, 3-1) on Saturday in what could be a College Football Playoff elimination game for the Buckeyes.
Penn State is coming off an impressive 28-13 road win over Wisconsin in Camp Randall Stadium just one week after toppling new conference foe USC, 33-30, in Los Angeles.
Ohio State, meanwhile, struggled with Nebraska last week but ultimately came away with a 21-17 victory. Before that game, though, the Buckeyes suffered a 32-31 loss to now-No. 1 Oregon, making this a pivotal matchup for their postseason hopes.
Despite trending up and playing at home, Penn State enters as a +3 underdog with an over/under of 46.
Continue reading for our Penn State vs. Ohio State picks and college football predictions for Week 10.
Penn State vs. Ohio State Prediction and Best Bets
- Penn State +3
- Under 46
By Dan Keegan
This week’s Game of the Century takes us to Happy Valley, where Ryan Day’s Ohio State Buckeyes will look for another big win against James Franklin and his Penn State Nittany Lions, who have come up short in this exact spot over and over again in recent years
It's refreshing, in a season defined by Franken-matchups like Texas-Georgia, USC-Michigan, and Tennessee-Oklahoma, to have a high-stakes collision in a matchup that feels worn in and familiar.
Penn State’s inability to break through against the Big Ten’s elite tier has defined that league's standing in the playoff era. It's comforting, in a way, to see the same stakes this year too.
The Nittany Lions are a home underdog, getting 3.5 points in a game with a total of 46.
Both teams are well-rounded, currently in top form on defense, but looking for answers on offense. Key injuries to Ohio State left tackle Josh Simmons and Penn State quarterback Drew Allar change the calculus for how they approach this game.
Both teams are aiming for a Big Ten title and a College Football Playoff berth. They need this game to stay on pace for those goals.
Both coaches are running a reputation for not being able to win a big game. The fan-base grumblings could reach new heights for whichever team falls short on Saturday.
With so much at stake, we pulled 12 members of our college football staff to try to find a consensus on the best ways to bet this game.
Our staff is united and strongly recommends both Penn State getting 3.5 points at home and the under. Let’s get into our analysis.
Against the Spread
Spread Pick: Penn State +3
By Cody Goggin
Our staff believes Penn State will cover the 3-point spread as an underdog in this matchup, garnering 75% of the vote.
The Nittany Lions will have their crazy home environment on their side, as Beaver Stadium will be rocking. It’s always hard to fade Penn State at home.
Penn State’s defense has been one of the best in the country this season, ranking third in Success Rate allowed and 10th in EPA Per Play allowed.
Ohio State will want to pass the ball more often in this matchup, but it has been difficult to pass on Penn State this season.
The Nittany Lions rank 18th in PFF’s Coverage grade and 15th in PFF’s Pass Rush grade this season. Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton have been wreaking Havoc on opponents off the edge, as they both have 21 pressures this season and have combined for six sacks.
Ohio State ranks just 66th in PFF Pass Blocking grade and will be without its highest-graded offensive lineman in Josh Simmons, who's out for the season.
Penn State also ranks third in Rush Success Rate allowed and fifth in EPA Per Rush, so it stands a good chance of shutting down the run on early downs and forcing OSU quarterback Will Howard into some long passing situations on third down.
PSU head coach James Franklin has been playing coy this week, but most indications point toward Drew Allar starting at quarterback.
Penn State has thrived with Allar under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki this season, ranking third in Success Rate and eighth in EPA Per Play.
The Nittany Lions also come into the game second in Pass Success Rate and fifth in EPA Per Pass this season, underscoring how fantastic Allar has been.
Our staff believes in Penn State on both sides of the ball with Ohio State's offensive line being the main weakness between the two squads. With that potential mismatch, we're looking to take the home underdog at +3 in this massive matchup.
Over/Under
Over 46.5 | 3Â Picks |
Pass | 0Â FALSE |
Under 46.5 | 9Â Picks |
Over/Under Pick: Under 46.5
By Dan Keegan
Our staff is united in believing this game will go under 46.5.
Each offense enters the game with one major question mark, and they will be solving for these issues while facing ferocious, top-five quality defenses. The task at hand will be challenging for both attacks.
For Ohio State, the offense has struggled since the loss of left tackle Josh Simmons. The Buckeyes were already thin up front entering this season, a potential Achilles’ heel on a roster loaded with skill-position superstars.
That lack of depth is now exposed, and Chip Kelly’s outfit struggled to score only 21 points last week against a middle-of-the-pack Nebraska squad.
The Buckeyes do have a track record of excellent offense, but they're not clicking on all cylinders right now. Penn State’s attacking defense up front is a bad matchup for an offense looking to find its identity along the line.
Penn State enters with its own drama as well.
First-year offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has improved this unit’s overall outlook, but it still struggles to create big plays. The Nittany Lions rank in the 25th percentile for explosiveness, according to GameOnPaper.
But the big question surrounds the quarterback position, where starter Drew Allar did not finish the game last week against Wisconsin. Beau Pribula was effective in relief, but Ohio State will have a chance to game plan after seeing him on film.
Both defenses are excellent, ranking first (OSU) and third (PSU) in SP+. These are two of the best defenses in the country at snuffing out scoring opportunities. Both are top-six in the country in points allowed per ECKEL (Parker Fleming’s metric of scoring chances on CFB Insiders).
With such high-caliber defenses on display and two offenses fiddling with the knobs right now, the under 46.5 is an easy consensus pick from our staff.
Penn State vs. Ohio State Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 46.5 -120o / +100u | +135 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 46.5 -120o / +100u | -155 |
- Penn State vs. Ohio State Spread: Penn State +3 (-115) · Ohio State -3 (-105)
- Penn State vs. Ohio State Over/Under: 46.5 Points
- Penn State vs. Ohio State Moneyline: Penn State +135 · Ohio State -155
