The Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten) continue to roll over the poor competition, and they find themselves in the thick of the College Football Playoff picture. The Nittany Lions have a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way. Still, they must first travel to West Lafayette, Indiana, on Saturday afternoon to take on the Purdue Boilermakers (1-8, 0-6).
It's been another dreadful season for the Boilermakers, entering the matchup 0-6 in conference play and 1-8 overall. Last week, they were blanked by Ohio State, 45-0, in Columbus. Penn State, meanwhile, is coming off a 35-6 demolition of Washington in its annual "White Out" game in Happy Valley.
Oddsmakers have the Nittany Lions as 28-point road favorites, with the total set at 50.5. Let's dive into my Penn State vs. Purdue predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 16.
Penn State vs Purdue Odds and Betting Line
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-30 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -7000 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+30 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +1800 |
- Penn State vs Purdue Spread: Penn State -30
- Penn State vs Purdue Over/Under: 51.5
- Penn State vs Purdue Moneyline: Penn State ML -7000 · Purdue +1800
Penn State Nittany Lions vs Purdue Boilermakers Prediction
Pick
- Penn State vs. Purdue Prediction: Penn State Team Total Over 39.5
Moneyline
I'm passing on the Penn State vs. Purdue moneyline.
Spread
My Purdue vs. Penn State best bet is on the Nittany Lions to go over their team total of 39.5 points, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the Purdue vs. Penn State over/under.
Penn State Football vs Purdue Football Betting Preview
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview
Offensively, they Nittany Lions should be able to run all over the Boilermakers' defense. The running back tandem of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton has been effective while they split the carries, but I would like to see Singleton get more involved.
Singleton has been dealing with some injuries over the past couple of weeks, so OC Andy Kotelnicki has limited his touches. He's averaging two more yards per carry than Allen, so once Singleton is fully healthy, I expect him to reclaim most of the work.
Regardless of who's running the ball, the Boilermakers allow a ton of explosive plays, specifically on the ground. The Nittany Lions are top 15 in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards, so the offensive line has done a superb job in that area.
Run blocking has been one of many offensive strengths, as Penn State is third in Havoc allowed. QB Drew Allar has completed 70% of his passes and has only been sacked nine times.
Even if the Nittany Lions' ground game is not working, they are fourth in Pass Success Rate. The secondary has been a disaster for Purdue, so there are multiple ways that the Nittany Lions can sustain and finish drives.
Defensively, they've been a dominant unit once again in 2024. They rank inside the Top-20 in the following key metrics:
- PFF Coverage
- Rush and Pass Success Rate
- Havoc
- Finishing and Quality Drives Allowed
- Line Yards Allowed
You might question the legitimacy of these metrics, but the Nittany Lions are 15th in Strength of Schedule. Despite the losing teams they've been beating up, the schedule still suggests they've taken care of business against quality opponents.
After Purdue was blanked by the Buckeyes last week, I cannot see why the Nittany Lions cannot put forth a similar defensive effort. However, the unknown aspect of the matchup is when Franklin decides to let his foot off the gas in the second half and pull some of their key starters on both sides of the ball.
As great of a matchup as it is for the Nittany Lions, it's too large of a spread for my liking. If the number dips below four touchdowns, consider them more seriously.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview
Purdue has returned to QB Hudson Card as the starter, and most of you already know his song and dance by now.
Card completed 8-of-18 passes for 65 yards last week, and it was as bad as the stat line illustrates. In a run-heavy offensive approach, Card has yet to prove that he is a competent passer, even when he's tasked to throw the ball as little as he already does.
It says little about their overall talent, but I believe QB Ryan Browne is a better fit for the offensive approach. He is a better runner than Card, but the offense is completely broken.
The Boilermakers are 18th in Line Yards and 65th in Rush Success Rate, but that will not be much of a factor against a stout Nittany Lions defensive front.
Besides, the Nittany Lions' defense is elite in Stuff Rate, Rush EPA and Rush Explosiveness Allowed, so there is no path for the ground game to get going here.
The Boilermakers are 110th in Havoc Allowed, so I do not know how they will move the ball here. Their offensive approach is snail-paced, and we could see a lot of short possessions from them.
Purdue vs Penn State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Purdue and Penn State match up statistically:
Penn State Offense vs. Purdue Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 9 | 85 | |
| Line Yards | 16 | 104 | |
| Pass Success | 4 | 129 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 121 | |
| Finishing Drives | 16 | 120 | |
| Quality Drives | 7 | 128 | |
Purdue Offense vs. Penn State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 65 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 18 | 3 | |
| Pass Success | 111 | 21 | |
| Havoc | 110 | 9 | |
| Finishing Drives | 111 | 10 | |
| Quality Drives | 118 | 23 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 36 | 112 |
| PFF Coverage | 14 | 128 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 93 | 112 |
| Middle 8 | 13 | 134 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.1 (113) | 28.8 (105) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (29) | 55% (70) |
Penn State vs Purdue Pick and Betting Analysis
I like the Nittany Lions team total over here. The offense's performance last week was somewhat underwhelming, and I expect them to rebound in a tasty matchup here.
There are many uncertainties about whether the Nittany Lions will pull their starters early, so it's best to attack the team total rather than the spread. After all, they need to put up some style points the rest of the way in order to bolster their resume for the College Football Playoff.
The Nittany Lions are more than capable of explosive passes and rushes given the right matchup, which is undoubtedly the case here.
Kotelnicki's offense should put in a huge effort, and I know Franklin will be more than happy to pour points on the scoreboard.
Pick: Penn State Team Total Over 39.5 (-115)
Penn State vs Purdue Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS |
Penn State heads to Indiana on Saturday to face Purdue at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Purdue vs Penn State Betting Trends
- 71% of bets and 74% of the money are on Penn State to cover the spread
- 67% of bets and 70% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Purdue vs Penn State Weather
