The Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2, 8-1 Big Ten) host the SMU Mustangs (11-2, 8-0 ACC) in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday, Dec. 21.
Penn State is coming off a 45-37 loss to No. 1 Oregon in the Big Ten Championship, but it's held its ground throughout the season. The Nittany Lions' only 2 losses this season have come against top-10 teams in 1-possession games — the aforementioned Big Ten title game loss and a 20-13 defeat at the hands of Ohio State on Nov. 2.
SMU, meanwhile, suffered a 34-31 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship when the Tigers won on a game-winning field goal.
Penn State enters as a -8.5 favorite with the over/under set at 53.5.
Let's dive into our Penn State vs. SMU picks and college football predictions for their College Football Playoff game on Saturday, Dec. 21.
Penn State vs. SMU Odds, Spread, Line
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | -500 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | +375 |
- Spread: Penn State -8.5, SMU +8.5
- Over/Under: 52.5
- Moneyline: Penn State -500, SMU +375
By Pete Ruden
The 12-team College Football Playoff is finally here.
College football fans and bettors have been waiting for this day since the playoff announced its expansion, and now it's time to make the most of it.
Penn State has been in CFP contention many times before, but James Franklin's team never cracked the top four at the end of the season.
The Nittany Lions' downfall often came against the other top teams in the Big Ten East — namely Ohio State and Michigan. But with divisions gone and the playoff expanded, James Franklin's team has a chance to make a statement with a College Football Playoff Whiteout.
On the other side, SMU earned the nod to slip into the 12-team field, leaving out an Alabama team that finished 9-3 with a 5-3 mark in SEC play.
The Mustangs would have earned an automatic bid if they completed their wild comeback against Clemson in the ACC title game, but the Tigers' game-winning field goal made Selection Sunday all the more tense in Dallas.
Now, with the field settled, there's only one thing left to do: play the game.
We polled nine members of our college football staff to see whether or not they believe Franklin can get over the hump in a big game and whether or not we should expect a boatload of offense.
Let's get to it.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. SMU Mustangs Picks, Predictions
Penn State vs. SMU Spread
Spread Pick: Penn State -8.5
By John Feltman
Most of our staff appears to lean toward Penn State -8.5, and I agree. SMU had an incredible season, but it's time for a reality check.
The Mustangs had a valiant comeback attempt in the ACC Championship against Clemson, but the Tigers are another team I can't get behind. Their strength of schedules is not comparable to what the Nittany Lions faced throughout the regular season.
Also, there's a massive talent gap between these two programs. Say what you want about Penn State head coach James Franklin in big games, but you could never question the caliber of talent he consistently brings into the program.
SMU is heading in the right direction as a program, and I would undoubtedly buy stock moving forward, but it's time to hop off the wagon.
The most significant discrepancy between these two teams is their ability to run the football. The SMU offense can't really run the ball and lacks any sort of rush explosives.
The strength of the Penn State defense is that it doesn't allow explosive plays.
I expect Nittany Lions offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to have plenty of creative offensive sets cooked up to involve tight end Tyler Warren.
The SMU defense has been gashed by the tight end position all year long, so I expect Warren to explode on Saturday afternoon.
A lot of sharp money is pouring in on the Penn State side, so our experts are riding with the wise guys here.
Penn State vs. SMU Over/Under
Over 53.5 | 6 Picks |
Pass | 0 Picks |
Under 53.5 | 3 Picks |
Total Pick: Over 53.5
By John Feltman
Our staff leans toward the over, and I also agree there.
The Penn State offense should have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of an SMU defense that allows far too many explosive plays.
SMU loves to play at a rapid tempo on offense, which should correlate to more offensive plays for both sides. And even if Kevin Jennings turns the ball over — as he's done in three of his last four games — it will likely give the Penn State offense a short field.
Again, the biggest factor is that tight end Tyler Warren should have ample opportunities for explosive plays for Penn State.
Quarterback Drew Allar will also have more opportunities to use his arm against this SMU secondary, as the Mustangs allowed a ton of explosives through the air.
We saw a glimpse of that during the ACC Championship game, so I expect that trend to continue here.
I can't envision a world where the Nittany Lions struggle to move the ball, and even if the game is out of hand, I expect the SMU offense to eventually find its form to contribute to the total.
Player Props
Roderick Daniels Jr. Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-121 · Play to 45.5)
By Doug Ziefel
The SMU offense was revitalized once Kevin Jennings took over duties under center. His mobility and accuracy have opened up the offense, and the Mustangs enter the College Football Playoff ranked 13th in yards per pass nationally.
One player who has greatly benefited from the Mustangs' vertical passing attack is Roderick Daniels Jr.
Daniels' role in the offense has slowly increased. He's now third on the team in targets after having no more than two catches in a game before November.
Since Nov. 16, Daniels has had no less than five targets, and he's been extremely efficient with them, averaging 18.8 yards per reception. The Mustangs will have to throw the ball, as the Nittany Lions will likely shut down their run game.
Look for Daniels to be involved and make one of the longer catches of the matchup on his way to hitting this over.
