It’s a long trip from Happy Valley to Los Angeles, but that's what the fourth-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0) are taking to take on the USC Trojans (3-2).
The Nittany Lions find themselves in a unique situation.
They’ve hardly traveled all season, and the furthest they went was in Week 1 to Morgantown — about a 3-hour bus ride. Last week, Penn State handily defeated UCLA, 27-11, with Drew Allar completing 71% of his passes for 237 yards and 1 passing touchdown.
USC is lucky it’s not 2-3 instead.
The Trojans had a close win against LSU in Week 1, 27-20, and since then, it’s been up and down. They fell to Michigan in Ann Arbor by the score of 27-24 and then to Minnesota, 24-17.
This is a massive test coming up with Penn State coming into town.
Where does the betting value lie? Check out my Penn State vs. USC predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 12.
Penn State vs USC Odds, Spread, Pick
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -175 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +145 |
- Penn State vs USC spread: Penn State -3.5
- Penn State vs USC over/under: 51 points
- Penn State vs USC moneyline: Penn State -180
- Penn State vs USC pick: Over 51
My USC vs Penn State best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Penn State vs USC BettingPreview
Penn State Football
Allar has always been a pretty competent quarterback. Last season, he completed passes at a 59% rate but led the Big Ten in passing touchdowns. He’s also averse to turnovers, throwing only three interceptions in 28 games played.
I just think the biggest question will be the team as a whole. Your offense can be as efficient as possible, but if nothing else is clicking, you’re out of luck.
He’s been able to form decent connections with tight end Tyler Warren and receiver Harrison Wallace III to generate the 15th-ranked passing attack in terms of Success Rate while ranking second in explosiveness and third in PPA.
Penn State loves to run the ball, and it missed out on its top running back last week, Nick Singleton. Kaytron Allen took the bulk of the carries against UCLA, and there’s hope that Singleton is available for USC. The junior back is a menace, rushing for nearly eight yards per carry while leading the team in scrimmage yards.
Defensively, this team can give people headaches. The Nittany Lions can cause problems up front and create pressure, but the results don’t seem to add up.
Penn State’s 5-0, but it struggles in passing downs, and it's very susceptible to giving up explosive plays, primarily on the ground.
USC Football
It’s Miller Moss’ first season as a starter, and despite his team’s record, I don’t think he’s disappointed.
The junior QB is completing 64.5% of his passes, with the majority of them going to his three-man wide receiver corps in Ja’Kobi Lane, Zachariah Branch and Kyron Hudson.
It’s been a very efficient season for Moss, similar to his counterpart in Allar. USC is among the best in Passing Success Rate.
I love the Trojans’ run game, as they have the fourth-best run game in the FBS, led by Woody Marks. The Mississippi State transfer has taken over games, rushing for over 100 yards in three contests.
With Penn State’s knack for giving up big plays to opposing rushers, I see this being a big game for Marks.
What will be interesting to analyze is the passing defense against Allar. USC does a wonderful job stopping explosive plays through the air, and Penn State doesn’t create a lot of big plays.
I do expect Allar to be surgical with the Trojans, though. Even though USC can stop a big play, it struggles with premier playmakers, and it’s currently ranked 120th in Passing Play Success Rate.
Penn State vs USC Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Penn State and USC match up statistically:
Penn State Offense vs. USC Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 12 | 75 | |
| Line Yards | 17 | 92 | |
| Pass Success | 3 | 19 | |
| Havoc | 6 | 83 | |
| Finishing Drives | 19 | 56 | |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 26 | |
USC Offense vs. Penn State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 8 | 4 |  |
| Line Yards | 11 | 2 | |
| Pass Success | 32 | 41 | |
| Havoc | 59 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 63 | 21 | |
| Quality Drives | 45 | 11 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 26 | 49 |
| PFF Coverage | 37 | 45 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 106 | 26 |
| Middle 8 | 17 | 46 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.3 (108) | 27.0 (63) |
| Rush Rate | 64% (12) | 41% (124) |
Penn State vs USC Prediction
I think it’s a Battle of the Overrated here. Nothing about either program moves the needle for me. It doesn’t help that each is very similar to each other.
Allar is a solid game manager, and I love that he limits turnovers, but he hasn't proven to be spectacular yet in his college career. Moss is definitely someone who’s continuing to improve every game, but he still has a small sample size as a starter.
There will be a lot of groundwork in this battle. You have two teams who love to pound the rock, while both defenses consistently allow big plays to occur through the run game.
I think Penn State comes out with a win here, but I’m not sure if it'll be by margin or not.
This game should go over.
The total is set for 51, and while both program’s averages amount to less than that, the fact that they’re so both offensively driven makes me think it’ll be a long day for the defensive units.
Pick: Over 51 (-105)
Penn State vs USC Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | L.A. Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS |
USC vs Penn State Weather
