The Pitt Panthers travel to the Queen City on Saturday to take on the Cincinnati Bearcats in a battle between former Big East foes.
The Panthers started off their season with a 55-24 win, but it came against Kent State — a team projected to finish near the bottom of the MAC. Giving up that many points to a team that had zero wins and scored more than 24 points just twice against FBS teams last season should be a little concerning for head coach Pat Narduzzi and Co.
It's also worth noting that Pitt will be out for revenge after losing to the Bearcats in 2023.
On the other side, Scott Satterfield's first season at Cincinnati did not go as planned. The Bearcats won just three games, and only one of those came against a Big 12 opponent.
However, a lot of experience returns on both sides of the ball, which has them trending upward heading into this game. They dispatched Towson, 38-20, in their opening game but will have to play better as short favorites on Saturday.
Where does the betting value lie in what used to be a conference clash? Let's dive into my Pitt vs. Cincinnati prediction for Saturday, Sept. 7 below.
Pitt vs Cincinnati Prediction
- Pick: Cincinnati-2
My Pitt-Cincinnati best bet is on the Bearcats to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Pitt Panthers vs Cincinnati Bearcats Odds
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 62.5 -112 / -108 | +110 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 62.5 -112 / -108 | -130 |
- Pitt vs Cincinnati Point Spread: Pitt +2 (-110) · Cincinnati -2 (-110)
- Pitt vs Cincinnati Total: Over/Under 62.5
- Pitt vs Cincinnati Moneyline: Pitt +110 · Cincinnati -130
Pitt vs Cincinnati Preview
Pittsburgh Betting Preview: Pitt Continues Downward Slide
Pitt is making a change on the offensive side of the ball, as Narduzzi brought in Kade Bell to be the Panthers' new offensive coordinator.
Bell was previously at Western Carolina, where his offense led the SoCon in scoring. Now, he's expected to pick up the tempo for Pittsburgh.
The Panthers do return a lot of experience on the offensive side of the ball, but they ranked outside the top 100 in Success Rate in 2023.
Eli Holstein transferred in from Alabama and won the job over 2023 backup Nate Yarnell. Holstein was impressive in the opener against Kent State, throwing for over 300 yards, but he had three turnover-worthy plays against a bottom-level FBS secondary.
Pitt returns three of its four top receivers from last season, which will help Holstein, but his performance Saturday will go a long way in determining what to make of this Panthers offense.
Pitt's top running back from last season, Rodney Hammond, has been ruled ineligible for the season, which means Bell is going to lean on his top back from Western Carolina, Desmond Reid.
Reid was really good in the opener, running for 145 yards on 14 carries, but he was held to just 11 yards on 11 carries in his lone FBS start against Arkansas last season.
The Panthers defense is likely going to struggle this season. They were gutted on their defensive line and lost their longtime defensive line coach in the process.
The secondary returns both starting safeties, who were their leading tacklers last year, but they're really inexperienced at cornerback. Ultimately, Cincinnati should find ways to move the ball effectively.
Cincinnati Betting Preview: Are Things Looking Up?
Satterfield's team had an effective rushing attack in 2023, and that unit should only get better this season.
They return top back Corey Kiner, who averaged 5.5 yards per carry and put up a PFF rushing grade of 84.6 a season ago. He torched Pitt in this game last season, going for 153 yards on 20 carries for his best game of the season.
Cincinnati returns its entire offensive line this season after ranking 20th in Offensive Line Yards and 34th in PFF run-blocking grade.
Given Kiner's return and the O-line's continuity, the Bearcats should run the ball with a lot of success against a weak front seven from Pitt.
At quarterback, Brendan Sorsby transferred in from Indiana to be the starter, which is an upgrade from Emory Jones.
The biggest thing with Sorsby is that he needs time to throw. He was under pressure on 33% of his dropbacks at Indiana, which resulted in an average of 4.8 yards per attempt and a 33% completion percentage while under pressure.
He now has a much better pass-blocking offensive line in front of him and will be facing a very weak Pittsburgh pass rush in this game.
Defensively, Cincinnati could not stop the run last season, ranking near the bottom in several defensive rushing metrics. However, it should improve this season after adding depth via the transfer portal and returning its top two defensive tackles.
It's also big news that defensive tackle Dontay Corleone, Cincy's best defensive player, has been cleared to play after dealing with blood clots over the summer and through Week 1.
That'll be a massive boost for the Bearcats, especially considering he earned first-team All-AAC honors after putting up a PFF run defense grade of 80.4 last season.
Full Quote From Scott Satterfield on the News of Dontay Corleone being cleared to return. @FrontOfficeNews@rivalspic.twitter.com/PMyQf3ybvI
— Neil Meyer (@MeyerNeil6) September 3, 2024
Cincinnati is switching to a 3-3-5 defensive scheme this season with former Iowa State linebackers coach Tyson Veidt coming over to be the defensive coordinator.
There may be some growing pains early on — the Bearcats gave up over 400 yards to Towson — but they added a lot of depth in their linebacking corps and secondary, bringing in five transfers who were full-time starters at their previous stops.
Pitt vs Cincinnati Pick & Prediction
Things are trending in the wrong direction for Pitt right now. Narduzzi won 11 games in 2021 and nine in 2022, but the Panthers have since started to slide toward the bottom of the ACC.
While defense was always this team's specialty, it can no longer stop the run or generate a pass rush. That's going to be a big problem against Cincinnati.
In this game last season, the Bearcats controlled the line of scrimmage and paved the way for Kiner to rack up five runs of 10 yards or more. He also forced 11 missed tackles by the Pittsburgh defense.
The Panthers' front seven has gotten significantly worse since then and will need to not only stop the run but put pressure on Sorsby. However, they couldn't do that last season, ranking 120th in PFF pass-rush grading.
With Corleone back on the defensive line, the Bearcats can only improve against the run.
If they can also slow Pitt down and put pressure on Holstein to throw after he recorded three turnover-worthy plays against Kent State, it will only increase their chances of walking away with a win.
Narduzzi used to be really good as an underdog, but he covered just once as a 'dog in 2023 while also failing to cover in all five of his team's road games.
I have Cincinnati projected as a -4.4 favorite, so I like the Bearcats at -2.
Pick: Cincinnati -2
How to Watch Pitt vs Cincinnati Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Pitt vs Cincinnati Betting Trends
- Pitt has landed 53% of the bets but has generated only 50% of the money,
- The over is the clear sharp side here. It has seen only 35% of tickets but has racked up an astounding 86% of the money.
Pitt vs Cincinnati Weather
