Three weeks ago, the Pittsburgh Panthers (7-3) were undefeated and eyed an ACC championship game bid.
However, things have not gone well since then.
They have lost three straight and will likely be without their starting quarterback, Eli Holstein, for the second straight game.
However, that may not impact our angle as much as you think.
As for their opponents, the Louisville Cardinals (6-4) have been an enigma this season. They enter with a 6-4 record and hold wins over Clemson and Georgia Tech but recently lost to Stanford.
However, the Cardinals and the Panthers have the potential to combine for an exciting matchup. Louisville is an 8.5-point favorite on the spread with a 57.5-point over/under.
Let's examine this one to uncover the best betting angle for my Pitt vs Louisville predictions and college football picks.
Pitt vs Louisville Prediction
- Pitt vs Louisville Pick: Over 57.5
My Pitt vs. Louisville best bet is on both teams to go over the total, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Pitt vs Louisville Odds
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 / -110 | +250 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 / -110 | -310 |
- Pitt vs Louisville Point Spread: Pitt +8.5 (-110) · Louisville -8.5 (-110)
- Pitt vs Louisville Total: Over/Under 57.5
- Pitt vs Louisville Moneyline: Pitt +250 · Louisville -310
Pitt vs Louisville Preview
Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Preview
We're aware of the Panthers' quarterback change, and initially, it looked like the Panthers were in for a change in philosophy with Nate Yarnell under center.
However, against Clemson, we saw Yarnell drop back 54 times.
Yarnell has shown he's not as much of a dropoff as the oddsmakers are implying with the spread over the last two weeks. Yarnell has completed 63% of his passes but only averages 6.5 yards per pass.
This matchup could produce the best performance yet from Yarnell. The Cardinals rank 95th in opponent completion percentage and 66th in yards per pass allowed.
We've seen the Louisville secondary be attacked throughout this season, and if Yarnell has earned the trust, we should see him lead the Panthers on multiple scoring drives in this matchup.
Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview
Louisville's struggles this season have not been due to a lack of offense. The Cardinals rank 25th nationally in scoring, averaging over 33 points per game.
They have proven to be efficient in both facets, but Tyler Shough will need to fire back offensively in a fast-paced matchup.
Shough has been overshadowed in a talented conference, ranking 27th among FBS quarterbacks in yards per pass and 47th in completion percentage.
While the Panthers' secondary has been solid this season, we saw Kevin Jennings of SMU put up 306 yards passing on just 25 attempts. Shough has proven that he will push the ball down the field and do so with much more volume.
Louisville ranks fifth in Quality Drives, and keeping the chains moving is the key against the Panthers. Pitt ranks 25th in third-down conversion rate allowed but 67th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Pitt vs Louisville
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Pitt and Louisville match up statistically:
Pitt Offense vs. Louisville Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 60 | 45 | |
| Line Yards | 42 | 50 | |
| Pass Success | 67 | 84 | |
| Havoc | 120 | 70 | |
| Finishing Drives | 49 | 107 | |
| Quality Drives | 61 | 68 | |
Louisville Offense vs. Pitt Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 23 | 30 | |
| Line Yards | 73 | 5 | |
| Pass Success | 31 | 44 | |
| Havoc | 17 | 7 | |
| Finishing Drives | 41 | 67 | |
| Quality Drives | 5 | 54 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 12 | 55 |
| PFF Coverage | 47 | 65 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 11 | 114 |
| Middle 8 | 87 | 21 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.4 (5) | 26.6 (55) |
| Rush Rate | 45% (126) | 46% (111) |
Pitt vs Louisville Pick & Prediction
There has not been much market movement on the spread or the total. Much of it is due to the unknown of what Pitt's offense will look like with Yarnell.
However, the reigns have been taken off after last week's performance. Yarnell will lead college football's second-fastest offense in terms of yards per play, and Louisville will keep up as they rank 53rd nationally in seconds per play.
Louisville is 7-3 to the over this season, and Pitt is the perfect partner to extend that trend.
Take the over.
Pick: Over 57.5
Pitt vs Louisville Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Pitt vs Louisville will be played at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky, on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 4 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN2.
