The SMU Mustangs (7-1, 4-0 ACC) are currently undefeated in their inaugural ACC conference schedule, but hurdles await in the final month of games. That includes a matchup against the undefeated Pitt Panthers (7-0, 3-0) in Week 10.
SMU struggled on the road in its last game at Duke, needing a blocked field-goal attempt to end regulation and eventually take a 28-27 victory from the Blue Devils.
The Mustangs posted 6 turnovers, including 3 interceptions while losing 3 of their 6 fumbles. SMU travels back home to get healthy in the Havoc allowed category, prepping for a fellow undefeated ACC team.
The Panthers have been a huge success in terms of surpassing oddsmakers' win total of 5.5 games. Head coach Pat Narduzzi enters Week 10 undefeated at 7-0, looking to win a fourth consecutive conference game.
SMU is favored by 7.5 at home in Gerald J. Ford Stadium with an over/under of 58.5.
Let's take a look at my Pitt vs. SMU predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 2.
Pitt vs SMU Prediction
- Pitt vs. SMU Pick: SMU -7.5
My SMU vs. Pitt best bet is on the Mustangs to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Pitt vs SMU Odds
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 / -110 | +240 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 / -110 | -300 |
- Pitt vs SMU Spread: Pitt +7.5 (-110) · SMU -7.5 (-110)
- Pitt vs SMU Over/Under: 58.5 Points
- Pitt vs SMU Moneyline: Pitt +240 · SMU -300
Pitt vs SMU Preview
Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Preview: Holstein Cleared to Play
Starting quarterback Eli Holstein was injured in the fourth quarter of Pitt's last game against Syracuse after a 13-yard run. While Narduzzi is typically tight-lipped about injuries, Holstein has been cleared and expects to start against the Mustangs.
Holstein has racked up 17 touchdowns to five interceptions, but a turnover-worthy play rate of 5.2% has sky-rocketed over the past two games.
If he were to re-aggravate an injury, backup Nate Yarnell is in his third season with Pitt but has thrown just 26 passes in new coordinator Kade Bell's system.
The junior may not be a complete drop-off at the position, posting a lower 3.3% turnover-worthy play rate in his career while doubling the number of big-time throws.
The bigger issue may be a Pitt offense that's outside the top 70 in pass blocking and Havoc allowed.
On the other side, defensive coordinator Randy Bates' 4-3 unit has overachieved relative to preseason expectations, controlling the line of scrimmage while posting a top-15 number in Havoc.
The front seven consistently plays in the opponent's backfield, posting 57 tackles for loss and 145 pressures.
Nate Matlack's 17 quarterback hurries is one of the best marks in the country from all left defensive edge players in FBS.
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview: Advantages on Offense
In the wake of losing the top target on the team in tight end RJ Maryland, SMU played one of the worst games of the season in an overtime victory over Duke.
Quarterback Kevin Jennings connected on half of his passing attempts, racking up three interceptions while ball carriers fumbled six times.
The good news for Lashlee is the offensive momentum, doubling the national average in methodical drive rate while adding three other possessions with an average of 10-plus yards per play.
Tight end Matthew Hibner nearly doubled his season total in targets with six, while running back Brashard Smith bulldozed 26 rushing attempts that included two touchdowns.
It's #TouchdownTuesday with Brashard Smith's OT TD to secure No. 22 SMU's 4th conference dub and to improve to 7-1 overall with a 28-27 win over Duke 💪@SMUFB | @SMUMustangs | #PonyUpDallaspic.twitter.com/NO3qHhQps5
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) October 29, 2024
The usage of inside zone took on a higher Success Rate once Jennings ascended to starting duties at quarterback. SMU has two key run concepts that generate a high Success Rate of 60%: inside zone read to power.
There's an expectation that Jennings will come back to the median, as five of his six turnover-worthy plays came against Duke.
The good news for SMU's passing attack is that Pitt uses a heavy amount of quarters coverage, which Jennings has a mid-FBS success rate and neutral EPA (Expected Points Added) against.
Despite high-ranking numbers across the board defensively, Duke pushed SMU down the field. The Blue Devils averaged just 2.3 points in scoring opportunities, defined by drives that extend beyond the 40-yard line.
The Mustangs rank 12th in Defensive Finishing Drives, allowing just 2.9 points on 47 opponent trips to the extended red zone.
Elijah Roberts is the highest-rated defensive edge in FBS football in terms of pass-rush productivity, per PFF. The fifth-year senior has terrorized opponents with 41 pressures this season.
Elijah Roberts gets the SACK pic.twitter.com/RK2m2wE3GM
— NMD Grant (@NMDgrant) October 5, 2024
Pitt vs SMU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Pitt and SMU match up statistically:
Pitt Offense vs. SMU Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 31 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 21 | 12 | |
| Pass Success | 38 | 45 | |
| Havoc | 76 | 31 | |
| Finishing Drives | 19 | 12 | |
| Quality Drives | 42 | 19 | |
SMU Offense vs. Pitt Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 39 | 23 | |
| Line Yards | 65 | 8 | |
| Pass Success | 66 | 41 | |
| Havoc | 60 | 15 | |
| Finishing Drives | 33 | 49 | |
| Quality Drives | 43 | 39 |  |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 7 | 62 |
| PFF Coverage | 30 | 49 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 1 | 50 |
| Middle 8 | 78 | 22 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.5 (4) | 25.0 (27) |
| Rush Rate | 46% (118) | 61% (17) |
Pitt vs SMU Pick & Prediction
Don't be fooled by the recent scores of SMU and Pitt in Week 9. The Mustangs had six takeaways in the overtime win, while Pitt generated five takeaways from Syracuse in the blowout victory.
Jennings doesn't have a troubling track record against quarters coverage, a look that the Pitt defense will use heavily.
The bigger question is Pitt's ability to defend inside zone and power run concepts. The Panthers ranks 86th in broken tackles allowed, indicating the SMU ground game should gain traction.
The biggest handicap comes in Pitt's ability to provide solid pass blocking for either Holstein. Pitt ranks top-15 in Rush EPA, running straight into the teeth of an SMU defense that's also top-15 in allowing opponents chunk plays on the ground.
Ultimately, the chance for Pitt to win this game comes on the arm of Holstein.
The Panthers will be expected to throw under pressure, as Roberts will come off the edge against offensive tackle Ryan Baer. Baer's numbers have been poor, generating the lowest pass-blocking grade of any starter with 19 pressures allowed this season.
Both Holstein and Yarnell have struggled in a pocket that sees pressure. Yarnell had 21 dropbacks with pressure in 2023, generating three turnover-worthy plays and an adjusted completion rate drop of more than 40%.
SMU plays a strict Cover 3 in the secondary, a coverage scheme that has hindered Yarnell to a 44% Success Rate in his career.
Our Action Network projections make SMU a favorite of 10 points with a total just south of the key number of 59.
Both offenses will work with tempo, but SMU's advantages in Defensive Quality Drives and Defensive Finishing Drives should keep Pitt from cashing in at the goal line.
Furthermore, Pitt's explosiveness on the ground won't show up against an SMU defense that ranks 12th in opponent Rush EPA.
Pick: SMU -7.5 or Better
Pitt vs SMU Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
Pitt takes on SMU in Dallas on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Pitt vs SMU Betting Trends
- 77% of bets and 77% of the money are on Pittsburgh to cover the spread
- 97% of bets and 99% of the money on the moneyline are on SMU to win outright
- 65% of bets and 89% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Pitt vs SMU Weather
