The Pitt Panthers (7-5, 3-5 ACC) enter the GameAbove Sports Bowl to square off against the Toledo Rockets (7-5, 4-4 MAC) up at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. Kickoff is set for 2 p.m. ET on ESPN.
With it being bowl season, there are a handful of transfers and opt-outs on both sides to consider when analyzing this matchup. Check out Stuckey's bowl opt-out/transfer portal tracker to keep up to date on the latest moves.
The Pittsburgh Panthers are currently a 7-point favorite against Toledo with an over/under of 50 points.
Will the ACC show dominance in this one, or can the Rockets and the MAC keep this one close?
Pitt Panthers vs Toledo Rockets Prediction, Picks
- Pitt vs. Toledo Pick: 1H Under 24.5
My Toledo vs. Pitt best bet is for both teams to stay under the first-half total. Find the best line currently available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Pitt vs Toledo Odds, Spread, Lines
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | -250 |
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | +210 |
- Pitt vs Toledo Spread: Pitt -6.5 · Toledo +6.5
- Pitt vs Toledo Over/Under: 49.5
- Pitt vs Toledo Moneyline: Pitt ML -250 · Toledo ML +210
Pitt vs Toledo GameAbove Sports Bowl Betting Preview
Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Preview: New Starting QB?
The Panthers finished the season on a sour note after starting the year 7-0 and dropping five straight to close the season. Head coach Pat Narduzzi would like to send his seniors out on a positive note in a game they're supposed to win.
He will have to do so without starting quarterback Eli Holstein, backup quarterback Nate Yarnell and starting running back Desmond Reid, who are all out with injuries.
Narduzzi will also be without leading wide receiver Konata Mumpfield, who has opted out of this one.
Freshmen David Lynch or Julian Dugger will look to lead the new-look Panther offense that averaged 31.8 points per game this season.
The Panthers ranked 26th in Rush Success Rate, but that was with their starting running back and a more mobile Holstein.
The top leading rusher remaining has only 208 rushing yards on the season, so we will see if senior running back Daniel Carter is ready to step up with an offensive line that remains mostly intact.
A new starting QB makes the pass attack the real question mark, whether it be Lynch or Dugger. The unit ranked 36th in Pass Success Rate and 40th in Pass Explosiveness. Without its best offensive skill positions, I expect this offense will struggle, especially in the first half trying to gel with all of the new players.
The Panthers defense has a few opt-outs, namely defensive tackle Nahki Johnson, but most of this unit will be back together. They allowed 26.8 points per game this year and normally hold their own in terms of Success Rate. The Panthers rank 59th in Success Rate allowed, but their problem has been limiting big plays.
If they want to cover the touchdown, they will need to be better than 120th in Explosiveness allowed and win the turnover battle, where they're net -1 on the season.
Toledo Rockets Betting Preview: Secondary Holding Its Own Key for Toledo
Toledo, like Pitt, finished on a sour note after losing their last two, including a blowout loss against Ohio and a bad road loss at Akron.
The Rockets should have everyone back who played in their season finale against the Zips. This will be crucial, as they can't afford many opt-outs in this one despite Pitt losing many skill players.
Quarterback Tucker Gleason and the Rockets offense averaged 26.7 points per game. This offensive production has leaned on a stellar pass attack that ranks 30th in Pass Success Rate and 18th in Pass Explosiveness. It's no secret the Rockets want to run the ball, ranking 36th in Rush Rate.
Look for them to try to lean into the ground game early but put the ball in Gleason’s hands late to win them the football.
Toledo has done pretty well defensively this season, allowing just 21.3 points per game. It's done so mainly by limiting explosive plays, ranking 50th in Explosiveness allowed.
This defense's weakness is in the secondary for a team that ranks 70th in Pass Success Rate allowed. Taking advantage and holding its own against the new quarterback Pitt will bring will be the test of the night.
I suspect they will find success early as Pitt’s quarterback tries to settle in but could be exposed in the second half if the Panthers figure it out offensively.
Toledo vs Pitt Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Toledo and Pitt match up statistically:
Pitt Offense vs. Toledo Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 85 | 30 | |
| Line Yards | 67 | 52 | |
| Pass Success | 82 | 37 | |
| Havoc | 126 | 40 | |
| Finishing Drives | 58 | 65 | |
| Quality Drives | 83 | 40 | |
Toledo Offense vs. Pitt Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 120 | 34 | |
| Line Yards | 119 | 3 | |
| Pass Success | 37 | 66 | |
| Havoc | 72 | 16 | |
| Finishing Drives | 97 | 63 | |
| Quality Drives | 125 | 64 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 30 | 16 |
| PFF Coverage | 52 | 21 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 8 | 102 |
| Middle 8 | 105 | 24 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.4 (6) | 24.1 (15) |
| Rush Rate | 43% (129) | 50% (91) |
How to Bet My Pitt vs Toledo Pick
With so many new pieces for Pitt’s offense in key positions playing in this one, I suspect the Panthers to come out slow in this one trying to make quick throws and let their quarterback settle in.
With Toledo’s emphasis on running the football, I don't think they will force the issue of scoring points in this one unless they have to as the game progresses.
Because of Pitt’s new-look offense and Toledo’s ground game, I plan to take the first-half under 24.5 in this one.
Pick: Under 24.5 1H
Pitt vs Toledo Channel, How to Watch, Start Time, Streaming, Location
| Location: | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Thursday, Dec. 26 |
| Kickoff Time: | 2 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Pitt vs Toledo Betting Trends to Know
- 52% of bets and 56% of the money are on Toledo to cover the spread
- 89% of bets and 80% of the money on the moneyline are on Pittsburgh to win outright
- 61% of bets and 44% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
