Fresh off a bye week, the Pitt Panthers (4-0) head to Chapel Hill to face the North Carolina Tar Heels (3-2).
Pitt has been red hot with quarterback Eli Holstein at the helm. The first-year starter thrived against Youngstown State, a game in which Pitt won handily 73-17. Holstein threw for 247 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in that contest.
It has been a rough two weeks for the Tar Heels and I think the word “rough” is putting it nicely. First, they were brutalized 70-50 by James Madison, they then fell 21-20 to their rival, Duke.
So, where does the betting value lie in this ACC matchup? Take a look at my Pitt vs UNC predictions below.
Pitt vs North Carolina Prediction
- Pitt vs North Carolina Pick: Pitt -2.5 (-112)
My Pitt vs North Carolina best bet is for the Panthers to cover, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Pitt vs North Carolina Odds
| Pittsburgh Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -112 | 64 -110o / -110u | -142 |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -108 | 64 -110o / -110u | +120 |
- Pitt vs North Carolina Point Spread: Pitt -2.5 (-112) · North Carolina +2.5 (-108)
- Pitt vs North Carolina Total: Over/Under 64 (-110o / -110u)
- Pitt vs North Carolina Moneyline: Pitt -142 · North Carolina +12o
Pitt vs North Carolina Preview
Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Preview: Panthers on the Rise
The future of the quarterback position in Pittsburgh is in exceptional hands. Holstein, a redshirt freshman and transfer from Alabama, is completing passes at a 67% clip and also ranking second on the team in rushing.
Holstein’s presence has boosted this program. This team went 3-9 last year, but is now 16th in Passing Down Success Rate, 13th in Explosiveness and 36th in Passing Play Success Rate.
Desmond Reid has been an incredible force in this running game, averaging over seven yards per carry. He missed Week 4, but it’s reported that he’ll be available this week. He, along with Holstein and Daniel Carter, has helped Pitt rank 26th in Rushing SR.
Holstein has a myriad of options to throw to, so it’s not like the Panthers are throwing just to throw. Konata Mumpfield has been Holstein’s favorite target, averaging 15 yards per catch and over 78 yards per game.
Censere Lee is also a reliable option who averages 16 yards per catch. Against Youngstown State, he racked up 108 yards and had an 82-yard touchdown.
The defensive side of the ball is sort of an anomaly since Pitt is ranked 59th in Success Rate and 45th in Havoc while also ranking 120th in Explosiveness allowed and 108th in Points per Opportunity.
Pitt struggles against the pass and is susceptible to letting up explosive plays. Linebacker Rasheem Biles is a star, though, who’s already accounted for 6.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview: Disarray Since Week 1
UNC knew its program was going to take a hit with the loss of Drake Maye, which is why it brought in Max Johnson. Unfortunately for the Heels, Johnson went down for the season, which forced Mack Brown to look to Jacolby Criswell and Conner Harrell.
Criswell has taken the majority of the snaps and has done as well as you can imagine for a backup. It’s not all his fault, but UNC is ranked toward the bottom in nearly all passing categories. The Tar Heels are ranked 120th or worse in the following passing categories:
- 127th in Passing Play PPA
- 128th in Passing Play Explosiveness
- 131st in Passing Down Success Rate
- 132nd in Passing Down PPA
Amidst all of that, UNC is ranked 111th in Pass Success Rate.
I like who the Heels have in their wide receiver room, though. J.J. Jones and Bryson Nesbit are solid options who get a decent amount of volume, but Jones is more of the big play guy. Outside of him, there aren’t many receivers who can take over a game.
We all know the gravity that Omarion Hampton brings and with the quarterback play in flux, Hampton’s role is even more important. But is it possible that he could get run into the ground?
I love running backs like Hampton, and there is no doubt that he’s among the nation’s top rushers. The problem is he’s averaging three more carries per game than he was last season and about the same yards per carry.
Last week against Duke, he only averaged 3.6 YPC, while carrying the ball 29 times. I just worry that this amount of use is unsustainable, even if he and the Heels are among the best in Rushing SR.
The JMU game was especially confusing. North Carolina has typically held its opponents to lower-scoring games, and that shows in the metrics. The Tar Heels rank 21st in Success Rate, 29th in Havoc and sixth in Explosiveness allowed.
Perhaps allowing 70 to JMU was just an aberration, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Pitt vs North Carolina
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Pitt and North Carolina match up statistically:
Pitt Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 5 | 74 | |
| Line Yards | 7 | 100 | |
| Pass Success | 27 | 86 | |
| Havoc | 78 | 76 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 3 | 112 | |
| Quality Drives | 11 | 72 | |
North Carolina Offense vs. Pitt Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 40 | 30 | |
| Line Yards | 32 | 9 | |
| Pass Success | 70 | 107 | |
| Havoc | 84 | 19 | |
| Finishing Drives | 19 | 93 | |
| Quality Drives | 89 | 79 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 63 | 68 |
| PFF Coverage | 53 | 105 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 23 | 58 |
| Middle 8 | 78 | 121 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.8 (3) | 24.8 (24) |
| Rush Rate | 45% (123) | 55% (71) |
Pitt vs North Carolina Pick & Prediction
It just seems like UNC’s season was destined for failure from the jump. From losing out on Johnson, to the JMU disaster, to falling to Duke last week, the program seems like it needs a reset.
You will never see me say anything bad about Hampton — he’s the only thing going well for the Heels — but I worry about his longevity as long as he’s playing in Chapel Hill.
Pitt has bolstered its program in the biggest way possible. Holstein has stood out and made himself look like a top-20 quarterback.
I think this spread is a bit generous. Oddsmakers are giving UNC too much credit and I can’t see the Heels coming out on top or making it close. I feel like Pitt has separated itself from the majority of the ACC this season.
Pick: Pitt -2.5 (-112)
How to Watch Pitt vs North Carolina Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Kenan Memorial Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPNU |
Pitt vs North Carolina Betting Trends
- 55% of the tickets and 83% of the money is targeted towards Pitt covering the spread.
- 56% of the bets and 94% of the money is aimed for the Over.
- Pitt moneyline has been bet on 86% of the time, backed by 87% of the money.
