Purdue vs Illinois Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -108 | 44.5 -106o / -114u | +198 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -112 | 44.5 -106o / -114u | -245 |
How do I put this kindly? Purdue and Illinois were both awful bets last Saturday.
The Boilermakers offense was put on a poster by Iowa's defense, while Illinois dropped a home game to Michigan State as three-score favorites.
If you're wondering which Big Ten team will respond better after their disappointing performances in Week 10, you're not alone.
However, the betting value for Saturday's game isn't on the spread.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue's pass-happy offense can look like a thing of beauty under normal conditions. Toss in 20-plus MPH winds, and that can wisp away in a hurry.
An offense that came into Week 10 averaging 32.8 points per game couldn't reach the end zone in a 24-3 rout against Iowa last Saturday. Quarterback Aidan O'Connell still attempted 43 passes against the gusts but compiled just 168 yards and was picked off twice.
You'll see a ton of targets go Charlie Jones' way come Saturday. He ranks second nationally in catches (83), sixth in yards (944) and fourth in receiving touchdowns (9).
Purdue's defense, meanwhile, has been perfectly fine across the board this season.
However, the rush defense is beginning to show chinks in the armor; the Boilermakers allow 4.1 yards per carry (65th nationally), but that number's ballooned to 5.7 over the last three games.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Running back Chase Brown is the nation's leader in rushing yards, but it's not reflective of Illinois' success as a whole — especially recently.
The Fighting Illini have averaged just 21 points per game across the previous four contests after averaging just under 30 over the first five.
Bret Bielema's club hasn't cashed an over since Oct. 1, but that's largely because the defense has played well above standards.
The Illini rank top-six in Line Yards, Rush Success, Havoc and Finishing Drives, among a bevy of other categories.
Purdue vs Illinois Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Purdue and Illinois match up statistically:
Purdue Offense vs. Illinois Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 23 | 2 | |
| Line Yards | 101 | 6 | |
| Pass Success | 58 | 4 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 119 | 22 | |
| Havoc | 9 | 1 | |
| Finishing Drives | 83 | 1 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Illinois Offense vs. Purdue Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 65 | 25 | |
| Line Yards | 80 | 47 | |
| Pass Success | 56 | 43 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 40 | 49 | |
| Havoc | 83 | 48 | |
| Finishing Drives | 116 | 77 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 86 | 28 |
| PFF Coverage | 96 | 3 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 118 | 55 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.7 (49) | 27.2 (89) |
| Rush Rate | 42.5% (121) | 59.5% (26) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Purdue vs Illinois Betting Pick
Both teams played under the total in wind games last week.
There are 15 MPH breezes slated for Saturday — which may have triggered the over/under market move from 46.5 to 44.5 — but at what point can we start buying these two teams over the total?
I say now.
The wind isn't necessarily a factor for an Illinois offense that doesn't throw the ball anyway. It's completely fine letting Brown run wild, as he has. The London, Ontario, native has compiled at least 129 rushing yards in all six Big Ten games.
Meanwhile, this is a pure buy-low on a Purdue offense that, despite relying heavily on the aerial attack, should look significantly better than it did last week. The forecast looks a whole lot cleaner.
The total's a bit soft, especially for a Boilermakers team that's cashed eight of the last 11 overs dating back to last season.
It's the Midwest. A little wind here and there isn't enough to scare me off the total, especially since it dipped south of 45.
Pick: Over 44.5 or Better |
