The Big Ten West may not be around anymore, but the Big Ten West lives on in spirit when the No. 23 Illinois Fighting Illini host the Purdue Boilermakers at Memorial Stadium.
Illinois enters this game smack-dab in the middle of the Big Ten standings (1-1), while Purdue tries to escape the conference basement (0-2).
The Illini are 22.5-point favorites on the point spread in a game with a 48.5-point over/under. The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be streamed on Fox Sports 1.
It's another beautiful fall Saturday in Big Ten country, and I've got you covered with my Purdue vs Illinois predictions and college football picks for this NCAAF Week 7 matchup.
Purdue vs Illinois Picks, Prediction
- Purdue vs Illinois Picks: Illinois -22.5
My Purdue vs Illinois best bet is on the Illini to cover, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Purdue vs Illinois Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -110 | 47.5 -105o / -114u | +1200 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -110 | 47.5 -105o / -114u | -3000 |
- Purdue vs Illinois Point Spread: Purdue +22.5 (-110) · Illinois -22.5 (-110)
- Purdue vs Illinois Total: Over/Under 48.5
- Purdue vs Illinois Moneyline: Purdue +1200 · Illinois -3000
Purdue Football vs Illinois Football Preview
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview: At Least Basketball Season is Soon
We're about half way through the season, and unfortunately, the Purdue Boilermakers have established themselves as the worst team in the Power Four.
The Boilermakers rank 13oth in EPA per play, sit at 114th in ESPN FPI, and there's plenty of red in their Action Network metrics. Despite beating FCS Indiana State 49-0, Purdue has a -93 point differential on the season and all four of its losses have been by at least 17 points.
In short, they're awful.
Things came to a head last week in Madison when the Wisconsin Badgers — who hadn't scored more than 28 points in a game this season — dropped 52 points on the Boilermakers. It was the lowest low in the season of lows, and I'm not sure rock bottom has arrived yet.
Quarterback Hudson Card has thrown for seven touchdowns, but four came against Indiana State, and two more came in garbage time of Big Ten games, so those touchdowns haven't been that impactful. Unsurprisingly, Purdue ranks 106th nationally in Pass Success Rate.
The Boilermakers also rank 105th in Rush Success Rate, with 151 rushing yards through two Big Ten games.
It's the same story on defense. Purdue's 36.8 points allowed per game is the worst in the Power 4, and its problems start on the ground, where it is surrendering 239.2 rushing yards per game. The Boilermakers also rank 117th in Pass Success Rate allowed, 107th in Defensive Line Yards, and 121st in Havoc rate.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview: Top Half Big Ten Team
After a restful bye week, Illinois is ranked 23rd in the latest AP Poll at 4-1 overall and .500 in Big Ten after two road trips. With two wins over then-ranked teams and a respectable road loss to Penn State on their resume, the Illini are sitting pretty as they enter October football.
Quarterback Luke Altmyer has been excellent this season, completing 70% of his passes for 1,047 yards, 11 touchdowns and one pick. Pat Bryant (348 receiving yards, six TDs) and Zakhari Franklin (286 receiving yards) have been great outside targets, and Illinois also has a competent run game powered by Kaden Feagin (306 rushing yards, 3 TDs) and three other backs with at least 100 yards on the ground.
The Illini rank 28th nationally in Pass Success Rate and 29th in Quality Drives.
Illinois' defense is also solid, allowing just 14.2 points per game and ranking 33rd nationally in EPA per Play allowed. Linebacker Gabe Jacas is probably the top defensive contributor, with a team-leading three sacks, 25 total tackles, and two forced fumbles, while defensive back Xavier Scott also contributes with three interceptions.
Purdue vs Illinois Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Purdue and Illinois match up statistically:
Purdue Offense vs. Illinois Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 105 | 90 | |
| Line Yards | 36 | 102 | |
| Pass Success | 106 | 59 | |
| Havoc | 116 | 93 | |
| Finishing Drives | 21 | 22 |  |
| Quality Drives | 128 | 20 | |
Illinois Offense vs. Purdue Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 111 | 76 | |
| Line Yards | 93 | 107 | |
| Pass Success | 28 | 117 | |
| Havoc | 111 | 121 | |
| Finishing Drives | 65 | 94 | |
| Quality Drives | 29 | 108 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 123 | 29 |
| PFF Coverage | 125 | 64 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 88 | 16 |
| Middle 8 | 134 | 37 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.7 (117) | 29.6 (114) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (83) | 57% (51) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My Purdue vs Illinois Prediction
Now that Purdue has been blown out by Notre Dame, Oregon State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin, it's hard to imagine the Boilermakers keep it close with Illinois.
The Illini are better than all of those teams aside from Notre Dame, and they are coming off a bye, so this one has the chance to get ugly. Illinois is a solid, well-coached team that won't look over a familiar opponent in Purdue.
Fade the free-falling Boilermakers again and take the Fighting Illini to cover on their home turf.
Pick: Illinois -22.5 (-110, FanDuel) | Play to -23 (-110)
Purdue vs Illinois Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Purdue vs Illinois will be played at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois, on Saturday, Oct. 12 at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on Fox Sports 1.
