The Michigan State Spartans (4-6, 2-5 Big Ten) will take on the Purdue Boilermakers (1-9, 0-7) in Spartan Stadium on Friday, Nov. 22, at 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
The Boilermakers have lost nine consecutive games; all hope is lost for this season. Beyond that, there are questions on what Purdue's football staff will look like next season. Head coach Ryan Walters may feel he is coaching for his job this week.
Michigan State has also fallen off a cliff, losing six of their last seven contests. The young Spartan offense hasn't developed as many fans hoped, but there is still plenty to play for as Michigan State attempts to become bowl-eligible.
Michigan State enters this Week 13 contest as a 13.5-point favorite on the spread, while the over/under sits at 47.5
So, where's the betting value here? Let's dive into my Michigan State vs. Purdue predictions and college football picks for Saturday.
Purdue vs Michigan State Prediction
- Purdue vs Michigan State Pick: Purdue +13.5
My Purdue vs Michigan State best bet is on the Boilermakers to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Purdue vs Michigan State Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +420 |
| Michigan St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -580 |
- Purdue vs Michigan State Point Spread: Purdue +13.5 (-105) · Michigan State -13.5 (-115)
- Purdue vs Michigan State Total: Over/Under 48.5 (-110o / 110u)
- Purdue vs Michigan State Moneyline: Purdue +420 · Michigan State -580
Purdue vs Michigan State Preview
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview: Outscored By A Ton
Purdue fans could not have imagined this season would go this poorly.
Against four top-20 opponents (Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State), Purdue has been outscored by a total of 195-17.
Now, a blowout loss counts the same as a one-point loss in the record books, but Purdue is a long way from playing competitive football against quality opponents.
The brutal schedule has made its winnable game opportunities more critical, though. We have seen Purdue play inspired football a handful of times in Big Ten, despite their season effectively being over for a month.
The Boilermakers took both Illinois and Northwestern to Overtime before falling short.
Purdue's only area of semi-successful play has been its rushing attack. Purdue ranks 64th in the nation at Rush Success Rate, and leaning on running back Devin Mockobee has been a successful formula. Mockobee is averaging 5.7 yards per carry on the year, and he will need a hefty workload this week to keep Purdue in the game with a Michigan State team looking to clinch a bowl appearance.
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview: Defensive Disaster
Michigan State is an opponent that Purdue should be able to hang with if past precedent holds. The Spartans have been a disaster against teams of all shapes and sizes during Big Ten play, outside of a win over Iowa a few weeks ago.
Like Purdue, the only area in which Michigan State does well on offense is its rushing attack, which ranks 52nd in the country in Rush Success Rate. The two-headed combo of KayRon Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter have a pick-your-poison feel, but both have been inconsistent week-to-week.
Defensively, it used to be the rushing defense that Michigan State held its hat on, but that has changed as of late. The Spartans still rank 31st nationally in Rush Success Rate Allowed, but Illinois wore them down last week on the ground. Lead back Josh McCray ran nine times for 61 yards and three touchdowns, part of an all-around day of 138 yards rushing on 31 carries.
Mockobee has more upside as a rusher than McCray, and Purdue would be wise to lean on their star player repeatedly to control this game.
As all Michigan State games seem to do, this game may come down to Aidan Chiles' turnovers at the quarterback spot. Chiles has thrown 11 picks to just 10 touchdowns.
Chiles finally cleaned up his act last week, but it should be taken as a major red flag that Chiles avoided turnovers, and Michigan State still lost by 22 points to an Illinois team that Purdue took to Overtime.
Purdue vs Michigan State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Purdue and Michigan State match up statistically:
Purdue Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 64 | 31 | |
| Line Yards | 23 | 25 |  |
| Pass Success | 114 | 115 | |
| Havoc | 116 | 119 | |
| Finishing Drives | 117 | 93 | |
| Quality Drives | 122 | 85 | |
Michigan State Offense vs. Purdue Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 52 | 87 | |
| Line Yards | 116 | 107 | |
| Pass Success | 94 | 134 | |
| Havoc | 124 | 124 | |
| Finishing Drives | 123 | 125 | |
| Quality Drives | 62 | 130 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 107 | 59 |
| PFF Coverage | 131 | 123 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 117 | 30 |
| Middle 8 | 134 | 126 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.8 (107) | 29.8 (121) |
| Rush Rate | 55% (82) | 54% (88) |
Purdue vs Michigan State Pick & Prediction
While it is hard to trust either of these teams, it is even harder to see Michigan State winning a game by two or more touchdowns.
The only opponent the Spartans have created separation against all year was Prairie View, and Purdue has perked up against the teams it has played this month that aren't monsters.
Michigan State may win, but Purdue will make things interesting.
Pick: Purdue +13.5
Purdue vs Michigan State Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Spartan Stadium, Lansing, MI |
| Date: | Friday, Nov. 22 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Purdue vs Michigan State will be played at Spartan Stadium in Lansing, Michigan, on Friday, Nov. 22 at 8 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FOX.
Purdue vs Michigan State Betting Trends
Purdue vs Michigan State Weather
