The Oregon Ducks are riding high after knocking off the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes at Autzen Stadium on Saturday night.
Now, they turn around and crisscross two time zones on a short week to take on a lowly Purdue Boilermakers team that's winless against FBS opponents in 2024.
This has “letdown” written all over it. So, how do we attack a sleepy start from the Ducks? With a same-game parlay.
Let’s group the legs of this parlay into two buckets: Gameflow and player props.
It's time to take a look at my Purdue vs. Oregon picks and predictions in my Week 8 same-game parlay.
Purdue vs. Oregon Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+30 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | +1650 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-30 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | -6600 |
Purdue vs. Oregon Same-Game Parlay
- Purdue 1Q +6.5 (+138)
- Oregon 2Q -8.5 (-108)
- Oregon 3Q -6.5 (-158)
- Ryan Browne Over 174.5 Passing Yards
- Jordan James Over 109.5 Rushing Yards
Parlay Odds: +1638 via FanDuel
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
Purdue vs. Oregon Gameflow
If you dig into any of Purdue’s stats this season, you’ll find that they’re bleeding out… red all over the spreadsheet.
The Boilermakers are awful against the run, checking in at 132 in rush defense EPA. They can’t stick with any receivers downfield, grading out as the 127th-best coverage unit in America.
And offensively, they’ve been unable to pass the ball all season long. But their Pass EPA (127th) and Success Rate (109th) come with a monster asterisk. The majority of those metrics measured Purdue’s offense with Hudson Card as its QB1.
Now, Card and his 40.3 QBR (107th) are out. Ryan Browne is in, and that’s where this parlay begins.
Browne looked fantastic against nationally-ranked Illinois last week. How good was the freshman? Try 415 total yards, three passing touchdowns and just one turnover-worthy play. If it weren’t for his massive frame (6-foot-4, 210 pounds) Purdue fans could have confused him for another famous No. 15 in the Boilermaker Gold and Smokestack Black.
With Browne at the controls, this offense has juice — at least in the early going.
It’s also worth noting that Oregon has scored to open the game just once in six games. The Ducks have punted on their first drive or opted to kick off to their opponents in five of those six contests.
So, you mix an intriguing new quarterback with the opportunity to grab an early lead, and you get the first leg of this parlay: Purdue +6.5 in the first quarter at +138.
From there, I anticipate Oregon waking up a bit. The Ducks have the third-highest scoring average in the second quarter in the country at 14.6 PPG. They usually take a little time to settle in, but once they do, this offense is highly efficient.
Against lowly Michigan State, UCLA and Oregon State in recent weeks, they pulled away in the second stanza by scoring 50 points in total against that trio.
When they’re supposed to handle an overmatched opponent, they handle their business in the second quarter. So, let’s tack Oregon -8.5 (-108) in the second quarter onto this parlay.
But why stop there? If Purdue is still within striking distance in the third quarter, we can count on Dan Lanning jamming down on the accelerator after halftime.
While the Ducks have struggled at times offensively after the break, their defense has roared in the third quarter. FBS opponents have mustered all of 10 points in the third quarter this season. That includes third-quarter shutouts of Boise State, Oregon State and Michigan State.
This speaks to Tosh Lupoi’s halftime adjustments. Given we’re up against a quarterback with limited tape, I anticipate Oregon to improve as the game progresses. So, let’s add Oregon -6.5 (-158) in the third quarter to the parlay.
Purdue vs. Oregon Player Props
Three legs down, two to go. Let’s start with the aforementioned redshirt freshman quarterback for Purdue.
Ryan Browne Over 174.5 Passing Yards
Purdue will be playing from behind in this game, which means we’ll get more attempts out of Browne than the 26 he threw against Illinois last week.
More dropbacks can be dicey if you can’t protect your quarterback, but luckily Purdue is pretty decent in this department. It ranks 54th in pass blocking, and Browne was sacked just once on 32 dropbacks against the Fighting Illini.
Jordan Burch is also a game-time decision at best for Oregon, so if the Ducks are without their best edge rusher, I like Browne’s chances in the pocket even more.
Oregon’s secondary is talented, and its average yardage allowed (189.3) would lead you to believe that it's uncrackable on the back end.
But when I look at the quarterbacks the Ducks have faced, frankly, I’m unimpressed.
Idaho ranks 83rd in passing… at the FCS level. Boise State just fed Ashton Jeanty the ball for four quarters. Oregon State’s Gevani McCoy is known more for his legs than his arm. There are L.A. area high schools with more dynamic passing attacks than UCLA. And Michigan State’s Aidan Chiles attempted just 17 passes against the Ducks.
The theme here is bad quarterback play or teams that simply aren’t interested in passing the football. When Oregon finally faced a quality quarterback last week, Will Howard threw for 326 yards.
I’m not expecting fireworks from Browne, but it’s high time that the underdog at least tried to throw against the Ducks.
Jordan James Over 109.5 Rushing Yards
If this all goes to plan and Oregon sleepwalks through its first drive or two, I know who it will turn to: Jordan James.
The Ducks have fed their bell-cow back 67 times in the past three games. He’s rewarded their faith in him by averaging 128 yards per game on the ground.
The reason this number remains relatively modest is because Oregon hasn’t been dominant on the ground. The days of Penei Sewell opening massive holes for Oregon runners are over.
The Ducks are still finding ways to gouge defenses, but they use a lot of misdirection and RPO gadgetry to do it.
They make defenses defend the width of the field, which is why James has excelled running it right up the middle. In fact, James averages 6.6 yards per carry in the A-gap to the left and right of the center. At 210 pounds, he’s Oregon’s hammer and will be running over Purdue defenders in the box.
Speaking of the Purdue run defense, it’s pretty lousy. Rated 113th by PFF, teams are tearing off massive runs left and right. The Boilers in the bottom 10 of rushing explosive surrendered, team tackling and Rush EPA.
Even if they gamble correctly, they often miss the first tackle — and James has a history of killing teams after contact. He ran for 111 yards after contact against Michigan State and ranks fourth in the Big Ten in that category.
He’ll eat against this paper-mache defense.
When you add it all up, this five-leg parlay comes out to +1638. If we can get a scoring drive from Purdue in the first quarter, I have a feeling this will all fall into place.
