The Purdue Boilermakers (1-3) will travel to Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin, on Saturday afternoon to take on the Wisconsin Badgers (2-2). Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on the Big Ten Network.
Wisconsin comes into this game with a 2-2 record as 14-point home favorites. Purdue has struggled to a 1-3 record and will look to get its offense moving the right direction in a game with a total of just 45.5 points set.
The Badgers are -575 on the moneyline for this Big Ten duel.
I think that this total provides a valuable betting opportunity in this game, so here's my Purdue vs. Wisconsin predictions and my college football picks for Saturday, October 5.
Purdue vs Wisconsin Prediction
- Purdue vs Wisconsin Pick: Over 45.5
My Purdue vs Wisconsin best bet is on the over with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Purdue vs Wisconsin Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 45.5 -110 / -110 | +425 |
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 45.5 -110 / -110 | -575 |
- Purdue vs Wisconsin Point Spread: Purdue +14 (-110) · Wisconsin -14 (-110)
- Purdue vs Wisconsin Total: Over/Under 45.5
- Purdue vs Wisconsin Moneyline: Purdue +425 · Wisconsin -575
Purdue vs Wisconsin Preview
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview: Shaky Start
Purdue hasn't had the season it wanted, as it's started 1-3 with its offense not looking good at all.
Purdue ranks 98th in offensive success rate this season. The Boilers pass at the 24th-highest rate in FBS but rank just 92nd in passing success rate and 93rd in passing PPA.
After scoring just 10 points against Nebraska and seven points against Notre Dame, Purdue fired Graham Harrell from his position as offensive coordinator this week.
Quarterback Hudson Card is completing 66% of his passes this season with 618 yards on 91 passing attempts. He has seven touchdowns, four interceptions and has been sacked 10 times already, while averaging -0.22 EPA per drop back.
Part of this is due to the offensive line, as Purdue ranks 87th in PFF pass blocking grade.
While it hasn't been good down-to-down, Purdue does rank first in finishing drives and 21st in explosiveness. This is due to its running game, as it ranks ninth in explosiveness and 24th in rushing PPA. However, the Boilers are just 86th in rushing success rate.
Purdue’s defense ranks 51st in success rate allowed this season but 131st in explosiveness allowed, 112th in finishing drives and 108th in Havoc generated.
The Boilers have faced the third-highest rate of rushing plays and are 43rd in success rate allowed but 134th in rushing explosiveness allowed and 116th in rushing PPA allowed.
They rank 103rd in PFF run defense grade and 106th in tackling grade.
The passing defense has only been marginally better, ranking 68th in passing success rate allowed, 77th in PPA allowed and 102nd in passing explosiveness allowed. The Boilers are 67th in PFF pass rushing grade but 125th in coverage grade.
Wisconsin Badgers Betting Preview: Can Defense Reach Expectations?
Wisconsin ranks 36th in offensive success rate this season but just 80th in finishing drives and 132nd in explosiveness.
The Badgers' rushing game has been effective down-to-down, ranking 21st in success rate and 45th in PPA, but they're just 123rd in rushing explosiveness.
The passing offense hasn't been what many had hoped for when Phil Longo was hired as offensive coordinator. They're 81st in passing success rate, 94th in passing PPA and 120th in passing explosiveness.
Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke did go down with a season-ending injury in the third game of the year, but prior to that, he was still averaging just 0.04 EPA per drop back. Meanwhile, his replacement Braedyn Locke is averaging 0.02 against a hard slate of opponents.
Defensively, this Wisconsin team hasn’t been what we've grown accustomed to. It ranks 88th in success rate allowed, 89th in explosiveness allowed, 102nd in finishing drives and 123rd in Havoc.
The Badgers are 107th in rushing success rate allowed, 96th in PFF run defense grade and 104th in rushing PPA allowed.
The passing defense has been the better unit, ranking 42nd in PFF coverage grade and 43rd in passing success rate allowed, but they're just 118th in passing explosiveness allowed and 87th in passing PPA allowed.
The Badgers have played tough offensive opponents the last two games in Alabama and USC, so we should see some improvement there. However, the defense has still been a bit of a concern to this point.
Purdue vs Wisconsin
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Purdue and Wisconsin match up statistically:
Purdue Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 83 | 93 | |
| Line Yards | 34 | 95 | |
| Pass Success | 99 | 110 | |
| Havoc | 112 | 111 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 14 | 115 | |
| Quality Drives | 126 | 98 | |
Wisconsin Offense vs. Purdue Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 22 | 81 | |
| Line Yards | 51 | 110 | |
| Pass Success | 97 | 70 | |
| Havoc | 33 | 124 | |
| Finishing Drives | 87 | 65 | |
| Quality Drives | 99 | 87 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 112 | 16 |
| PFF Coverage | 125 | 42 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 95 | 54 |
| Middle 8 | 134 | 126 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.4 (88) | 26.8 (60) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (83) | 56% (43) |
Purdue vs Wisconsin Pick & Prediction
Neither one of these defenses have been extraordinarily good this season. Purdue’s rushing defense has been terrible, and this is where Wisconsin has been able to find success on offense.
On the other side, Purdue’s offense likely isn’t as bad as it has looked to this point, and I think it could put up at least decent numbers against a Wisconsin defense that's struggled overall and doesn’t generate any Havoc.
At just 45.5 points, I like taking the over in this game.
I don’t think this will be some sort of shootout, but I could see Purdue pushing 20 points while helping to push this game over its total.
Pick: Over 45.5 (Play to 47.5)
How to Watch Purdue vs Wisconsin Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Big Ten Network |
Purdue vs Wisconsin Betting Trends
- 55% of the bets and 51% of the money is on Purdue to cover the spread.
- 94% of the money is on the under for Purdue vs. Wisconsin.
- 58% of the bets are on the over for this Big Ten matchup.
