The Houston Cougars (0-2) will host the Rice Owls (1-1) on Saturday night in a crosstown rivalry game streaming on ESPN+. The game will take place at 8:00 p.m. ET in TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas.
Houston is a consensus 4.5-point favorite at home against Rice, as the Cougars have been all day Saturday. The over/under has moved a half-point from 44 up to 44.5 points at every major sportsbook. Houston is a -200 favorite on the moneyline, with Rice a +165 underdog to win outright.
The Cougars are going through a rebuild, but will they be able to take down the Owls? Let’s look at my Rice vs. Houston predictions and my college football picks and predictions for Week 3 on Saturday.
Rice vs. Houston Prediction
Pick: Houston -4.5
My Rice vs. Houston best bet is on the Cougars to cover the 4.5-point spread at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to shop around for the best lines on all your college football bets with our live NCAAF odds page.
Rice vs Houston Odds
| Rice Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
- Rice vs. Houston Spread: Houston -4.5
- Rice vs Houston Over/Under: 44.5 points
- Rice vs Houston Moneyline: Houston -200, Rice +165
- Rice vs. Houston Pick: Houston to cover the spread
Rice vs. Houston College Football Preview
Rice Football
Rice finished last season 103rd in SP+. They had the 69th-ranked offense but just the 114th-ranked defense. The Owls ranked 50th in offensive Success Rate and 33rd in Pass Success Rate, throwing the ball 55% of the time (the 23rd-highest rate in FBS).
This season, the Owls’ offense returns seven starters. EJ Warner takes over at quarterback following the last two seasons at Temple. Through the first two games of this season, Warner has 385 passing yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions, averaging -0.04 EPA per dropback.
This year, the Rice passing game has been a weakness, ranking 108th in passing Success Rate and 97th in EPA per Play. The Owls' rushing attack, which they don’t use nearly as much, ranks 23rd in Success Rate and fifth in EPA per play.
Rice made easy work of FCS Texas Southern by scoring 69-7, but they lost to Sam Houston State by 20 points in their season opener. In that game, the Owls had just a 17th-percentile offensive Success Rate and 18th-percentile EPA per Play against a defense ranked 98th by SP+.
The Rice defense projects to be a better unit this season as eight starters return, including their top five tacklers. This helped them hold Sam Houston State to a 26th-percentile offensive Success Rate and 46th-percentile EPA per Play.
Houston doesn’t project to have a great offense, but the Cougars will be a step up from anyone the Owls have faced this season.
Houston Football
Many expect Willie Fritz’s first season in Houston to be a rebuilding year.
The first two weeks have looked this way, as the Cougars are 0-2, but they have played two really solid teams.
UNLV trounced the Cougars, but if you look closer at this game, neither offense had much success. Houston had an eighth-percentile offensive Success Rate, but UNLV was only able to muster a 10th-percentile Rate.
The Cougars then showed up against Oklahoma last weekend by holding Jackson Arnold and the Sooners’ offense to a 15th-percentile Success Rate and 16th-percentile EPA per Play. SP+’s post-game win expectancy had this as an eight-point win for the Cougars rather than the four-point loss that was the final result.
I don’t have much faith in this offense as their offensive line and receiving group may both be weaknesses, but they still look like the best offense that Rice will have faced this year.
On the defensive side of the ball, Houston has impressed. They have risen from 102nd in SP+ on defense last year to 93rd. The Cougars rank 26th in Success Rate allowed and 50th in EPA per Play allowed. Their rush defense has been exceptionally strong, which may pose an issue for Warner if he can’t turn things around.
Rice vs Houston Pick & Prediction
We saw Houston play close against Oklahoma last weekend, and the result shocked many.
However, Houston’s defense appears to be strong. After watching two games, I don’t have much faith in Rice's offensive attack.
I don’t love the Houston offense either, but Rice’s defense will be the easiest they have faced to this point in the season, and I think we will see a little bit more from them.
Overall, I think the gap between the talent on these two teams is wider than this line shows. I like taking Houston to cover the 4.5-point spread at home for the first win in the Willie Fritz era.
Pick: Houston Cougars -4.5 (Bet to -5.5)
How to Watch Rice vs Houston: Time, TV Channel, Streaming
| Location: | John O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium, Houston, Texas |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
