Making a pick between Michigan and TCU is not an easy one.
But this much is true: I love Michigan and TCU's offenses more than their respective defenses.
And it's not hard to. Michigan and TCU are the fifth- and ninth-most potent offenses in the country.
Here's the issue. TCU hasn't faced a defense like Michigan. They haven't faced a Top 50 defense all season. All season. And Michigan are the top ranked scoring defense and among the best defenses in college football.
Meanwhile, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy has been on point all season, with 20 touchdowns and three interceptions. He seldom makes mistakes and constantly chooses the correct progressions.
Seeing Donovan Edwards run for 400 yards in his two games of real action makes me say this guy is the real deal, too.
Is there any greater test than playing against Ohio State at Ohio State?
That was until I looked into how Michigan scored their points this year. If you look at every in-conference game, Michigan didn't have a single contest where it scored more than half its points in the first half. They're notoriously slow starters and turn on the gas later on in the game.
That's all I needed to see. I'm confident TCU will have issues with Michigan, especially at first.
And I know Michigan will start slow.
At BetMGM, you're actually getting 29.5 as a first half total on a 58 total, which, if you believe what I do, is value.
So take the under 29.5 at BetMGM in the Fiesta Bowl first half and you get it at -110.
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