The Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5, 4-5 Big Ten) finally showed that they belong in the Big Ten; their 7-5 record earned them a date with a Kansas State Wildcats (8-4, 5-4) team that was in Big 12 title contention before stumbling down the stretch.
While there's an apparent gap between these two programs, one thing that likely won't be missing from this matchup is many of its best players. Rutgers may be missing a few defensive starters, as well as star running back Kyle Monangai.
Can the Wildcats' depth help them close out the year strong, or will the Scarlet Knight cement their season with a great bowl performance?
Kansas State enters as a -7 favorite with an over/under of 52.
Let's dive into my Rutgers vs. Kansas State predictions and college football picks for the Rate Bowl on Thursday, Dec. 26.
Rutgers Scarlet vs Kansas State Predictions, Best Bets
- Rutgers vs. Kansas State Pick: Kansas State -7
My Kansas State vs. Rutgers bet is on the Wildcats to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Rutgers vs Kansas State Odds, Spread
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+7.5 -112 | 52.5 -108o / -112u | +235 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-7.5 -108 | 52.5 -108o / -112u | -290 |
- Rutgers vs Kansas State Spread: Kansas State -7.5, Rutgers +7.5
- Rutgers vs Kansas State Over/Under : 52.5
- Rutgers vs Kansas State Moneyline: Kansas State ML -290, Rutgers ML +235
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Kansas State Wildcats 2024 Rate Bowl Preview
Rutgers Scarlet Knights Betting Preview
We needed to highlight the status of running back Kyle Monangai, as he's the Scarlet Knights' offense. The senior running back carried the ball 256 times this season, and that's with missing a game due to injury.
Moanangai leads a relentless ground attack that averages 4.1 yards per carry and has shown to wear on opposing defenses. However, it remains to be seen if it can damage this Kansas State unit.
However, according to head coach Greg Schiano, Monangai won't play in Thursday's Rate Bowl.
The Wildcats defense is the unit that made them a conference title contender, and specializes in shutting down the run game. Kansas State ranked 29th in yards per rush allowed and will have tremendous edges in the trenches here.
Kansas State's front outranks Rutgers in Line Yards 17 to 86 on this side of the ball. That means there won't be much push for the ground game, and that will still be this Rutgers offense.
If the ground game is nonexistent, it will be up to quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis's arm, and that outlook is also bleak. Kaliakmanis ranked 121st in completion percentage and 95th in yards per pass this season.
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview
On the other side, the Wildcats also heavily rely on the ground game. They rank the ball at the 59th-highest rate in the country and have had great success doing so, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, which is good for fifth nationally.
However, running back DJ Giddens did the majority of that work. Giddens has declared for the NFL Draft and will be missed in this matchup, but given the Wildcats' edge in the trenches and solid depth, we may not see them miss a beat.
Rutgers was a team punished by the ground game this season, as their opposition averaged five yards per carry against them. We should see Kansas State move the ball at will on the ground as they outrank Rutgers 31 to 90 in Line Yards and 54 to 117 in Rush Success Rate.
Much of that work will likely be done by backup running back Dylan Edwards, who averaged 6.3 yards per carry on 56 attempts this season.
Like we've seen all season, the work on the ground sets up explosive pass plays, and those should be available against a Rutgers secondary that could be without two starters.
Kansas State vs Rutgers Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas State and Rutgers match up statistically:
Rutgers Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 55 | 2 | |
| Line Yards | 86 | 17 | |
| Pass Success | 52 | 47 | |
| Havoc | 4 | 49 | |
| Finishing Drives | 55 | 22 | |
| Quality Drives | 49 | 39 | |
Kansas State Offense vs. Rutgers Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 54 | 117 | |
| Line Yards | 31 | 90 | |
| Pass Success | 59 | 67 | |
| Havoc | 26 | 87 | |
| Finishing Drives | 64 | 82 | |
| Quality Drives | 74 | 54 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 55 | 75 |
| PFF Coverage | 72 | 93 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 71 | 20 |
| Middle 8 | 60 | 65 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.3 (75) | 27.1 (68) |
| Rush Rate | 57% (40) | 54% (53) |
Rutgers vs Kansas State Picks, Best Bets
The market has held firm on this matchup because this line is nearly correct. Kansas State can dominate the trenches on both sides of the ball, allowing them to pull away in this matchup.
We saw a quick dip to 6.5, but that was quickly brought back up to seven. If you can get it under seven, the juice is worth paying for, but laying seven or even an alt 9.5 are numbers you should be comfortable with here.
This is much more of a mismatch than the records show, and we'll see it on the scoreboard.
Pick: Kansas State -7 (Play to -7.5)
Rutgers vs Kansas State Channel, How to Watch, Start Time, Location, Streaming
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Thursday, Dec. 26 |
| Kickoff Time: | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Rutgers takes on Kansas State in the Rate Bowl in Phoenix on Thursday, Dec. 26 at 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Rutgers vs Kansas State Betting Trends
Rutgers vs Kansas State Weather
