On Saturday at the Spring Break Capital of the Northeast, the Maryland Terrapins (4-5) will host the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-4).
Considering both teams' bowl season aspirations, this is a critical matchup.
I'm sure the Terps are happy to return home after traveling across the country just to get thumped by Oregon. Meanwhile, the Knights had a solid win at home against Minnesota, where they were 5.5-point underdogs entering the matchup.
Oddsmakers have the Terps as 5.5-point favorites, and the total is 51.5. Let's dive into the matchup breakdown below with a Rutgers and Maryland prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 16th.
Rutgers vs Maryland Prediction
- Rutgers vs Maryland Pick: Maryland -5.5
My Rutgers vs Maryland best bet is on the Terrapins to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Rutgers vs Maryland Odds
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -112 | 52 -112o / -108u | +170 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -108 | 52 -112o / -108u | -205 |
- Rutgers vs Maryland Point Spread: Rutgers -5.5 (-108) · Maryland +5.5 (-112)
- Rutgers vs Maryland Total: Over/Under 52 (-112o / -108u)
- Rutgers vs Maryland Moneyline: Rutgers +170 · Maryland -205
Rutgers vs Maryland Preview
Rutgers Scarlet Knights Betting Preview: Mismatch on the Ground
The Knights had an impressive win over the Gophers last week, especially since they did not have star tailback Kyle Monangai. Monangai is an integral part of the Knights' offense, and he is trending toward playing on Saturday after being a game-time decision last weekend.
HC Greg Schiano has done a great job revitalizing the football program over the years, but it has been a disappointing season thus far. Rutgers needs one more victory to earn bowl eligibility, but there have been multiple games on the schedule that it will look back at and wish it had gotten the job done.
It's not an easy matchup for the Knights' offense, especially because they love to use Monangai as their focal point when healthy. The Knights run the ball 56% of the time and are 60th in Rush Success Rate.
The problem is that Maryland's defense is extremely stout against the run and does an outstanding job of limiting rush explosives. The way to attack the Terps' defense is through the air, but the Knights still need to be a consistent passing team, including a lack of explosive passes.
QB Athan Kaliakmanis has 11 TD passes and 4 INTs, but he has yet to provide enough with his arm every week. The Knights are 75th in Pass Success Rate and rank outside the Top 90 in Finishing Drives.
It will be up to Kaliakmanis to provide the offense for the Knights, but I need more faith that they will ditch their usual game plan of running the ball most of the time. It's usually adequate for them because of the talent of their backfield, but it is not a good matchup for them to expose the Terps rushing defense.
Defensively, they are in for a load of trouble against the Terps rushing attack. Maryland doesn't have the greatest rushing attack on paper, but they have an edge in the rush explosives department.
The Knights are also outside the top 80 in Line Yards Allowed and PFF Coverage, so they could be in trouble even if the Terps decide to go through the air more than usual.
I can not back the Knights on the road here, especially after their big win at home. I wouldn't be shocked to see them come out flat.
Maryland Terrapins Betting Preview: Strong on Defense
The Terps entered the matchup after a rough west-coast trip to Oregon, but they did not play as poorly as the scoreboard suggested. They nearly outgained the Ducks, and it should have been a much closer matchup, according to the box score.
Maryland has a strong edge heading into the matchup, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I spoke about how the Knights love to run the ball, but the Terps' defensive front has been outstanding in that department.
Defensively, they're among the top 50 in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards Allowed, and I already mentioned how they are elite at limiting rush explosives. With Monangai expected back for Rutgers, that is a massive edge to have.
The secondary has been brutally bad, but Rutgers does not throw the ball too often, either. They also struggle to get any sort of pass explosiveness, so I am not too concerned.
QB Billy Edwards has had a fine season, throwing 14 TDs and 5 INTs. He's been better than expected, as his dual-threat ability has been massive for the offensive philosophy.
I expect a lot of success from the Terps' rushing attack, and there will be a lot more running lanes opening up this week than last. It's a great bounce-back spot for the Terps, especially since they need to win two more games to earn a bid to Bowl season.
Rutgers vs Maryland
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Rutgers and Maryland match up statistically:
Rutgers Offense vs. Maryland Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 60 | 48 | |
| Line Yards | 73 | 22 | |
| Pass Success | 75 | 105 | |
| Havoc | 8 | 100 | |
| Finishing Drives | 92 | 104 | |
| Quality Drives | 69 | 84 | |
Maryland Offense vs. Rutgers Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 111 | 119 | |
| Line Yards | 112 | 84 | |
| Pass Success | 55 | 70 | |
| Havoc | 57 | 82 | |
| Finishing Drives | 78 | 81 |  |
| Quality Drives | 68 | 47 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 36 | 75 |
| PFF Coverage | 74 | 106 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 101 | 77 |
| Middle 8 | 85 | 73 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.0 (60) | 25.5 (31) |
| Rush Rate | 56% (49) | 43% (122) |
Rutgers vs Maryland Pick & Prediction
I am riding with the public and laying it with the Terps at home. It seems like many points, but I think oddsmakers realize there are many advantages on both sides of the ball for the Terps.
The Terps' offense should expose Rutgers's poor rush defense. Their defense should also have no issues containing the Knights' rush-heavy approach.
It's a bad spot for Rutgers, coming off a big home victory, and even with Monangai back, I do not upgrade them enough to consider backing them here, given the matchup.
Pick: Maryland -5.5
Rutgers vs Maryland Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | SECU Stadium, College Park, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 6 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Rutgers vs Maryland will be played at SECU Stadium in College Park, Maryland, on Saturday, Nov. 16 at 6 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FS1.
Rutgers vs Maryland Betting Trends
Rutgers vs Maryland Weather
