The Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-5) travel to East Lansing, Michigan, on Saturday, Nov. 30, to play the Michigan State Spartans (5-6) for NCAAF Week 14 action.
The Scarlet Knights are bowl-eligible, while the Spartans could get there with one more victory.
Michigan State is a 1.5-point favorite on the spread with a 47.5-point over/under.
Read on for our Rutgers vs Michigan State predictions and college football picks.
Rutgers vs Michigan State Prediction
- Rutgers vs. Michigan State Pick: Michigan State 1H ML (-122)
My Rutgers vs. Michigan State best bet is on the Spartans ML in the first half, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Rutgers vs Michigan State Odds
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 / -105 | +102 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 / -105 | -118 |
- Rutgers vs Michigan State Point Spread: Rutgers +1.5 (-110) · Michigan State -1.5 (-110)
- Rutgers vs Michigan State Total: Over/Under 47.5
- Rutgers vs Michigan State Moneyline: Rutgers +102 · Michigan State -118
Rutgers vs Michigan State Preview
I refer to Michigan State as the script team. Its offense has been leaps and bounds better early in the game during the scripted portion, especially relative to their second-half output. The opposite holds for Rutgers.
Against FBS teams, Michigan State averages 11.5 points in the first half compared to just a paltry 6.3 in the second half, making it one of only four teams in FBS to average fewer than a touchdown over the final 30 minutes of games.
Look no further than last week against Purdue, in which it built a 24-3 halftime lead and had to hold for dear life for a 24-17 victory.
Conversely, Rutgers averages 11.8 points per first half and an even better 13.2 in the second half — a touch higher than the national average and almost an entire touchdown more than Michigan State.
Given Michigan State's struggles in the secondary, I wouldn't be surprised if Rutgers mounts a second-half comeback to pull out the road win after a hopefully slow start.
Also, situationally, this is a perfect spot for Michigan State, which profiles as one of the teams I think values getting to a bowl in Jonathan Smith's first season.
Rutgers vs Michigan State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Rutgers and Michigan State match up statistically:
Rutgers Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 52 | 23 | |
| Line Yards | 77 | 22 | |
| Pass Success | 58 | 117 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 96 | |
| Finishing Drives | 63 | 89 | |
| Quality Drives | 60 | 82 | |
Michigan State Offense vs. Rutgers Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 45 | 121 | |
| Line Yards | 107 | 102 | |
| Pass Success | 104 | 71 | |
| Havoc | 116 | 90 | |
| Finishing Drives | 118 | 72 | |
| Quality Drives | 54 | 60 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 46 | 37 |
| PFF Coverage | 74 | 124 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 101 | 56 |
| Middle 8 | 70 | 118 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.0 (64) | 29.7 (118) |
| Rush Rate | 56% (45) | 53% (86) |
Rutgers vs Michigan State Pick & Prediction
I expect Sparty to come out fully motivated, sitting with five wins on the season. It would certainly be an impressive feat, given all the offseason changes and a gauntlet of a schedule.
Meanwhile, where is Rutgers mentally after inexplicably blowing that game against Illinois last week? Already bowl-eligible, the Scarlet Knights could come out a bit flat here.
Plus, from a matchup perspective, Michigan State should be able to get its ground game going early on against Rutgers (121st in Success Rate), which will undoubtedly help with the script.
Plus, the Spartans' strong run defense (16th in Success Rate) can slow down Rutgers on the ground, which is the key to slowing down the Scarlet Knight offense.
Give me the more motivated team that has played a more difficult schedule and excels early in games at home with a shot at bowl eligibility — especially with a few key matchup advantages on both sides of the ball.
For what it's worth, Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith is 18-10 ATS in the first half as a favorite in his coaching career.
Pick: Michigan State 1H ML (-122, FanDuel)
Rutgers vs Michigan State Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Rutgers vs Michigan State will be played at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan, on Saturday, Nov. 30 at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FS1.
