San Diego State vs. Boise State Odds
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
The Mountain West has been nothing short of a disaster to begin the 2022 season and two of its top underperformers will meet in Boise on Friday night.
Following a loss to UTEP last week, Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal. The Broncos also fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough and are looking for a fresh start with a new OC and quarterback.
San Diego State did manage to beat Toledo, but it was an uninspiring performance offensively from the Aztecs. They broke a couple of big runs and scored in the final minutes to beat Toledo at home, 17-14, but it proved to be another lackluster passing performance from transfer quarterback Braxton Burmeister.
Given how much the league is struggling as a whole, the conference remains wide open. Neither team is out of the picture despite terrible nonconference showings.
Boise State has a lot more uncertainty with the changes on offense, but it's hard to imagine things getting worse than they were last week. This presents a good buy-low spot on the Broncos.
San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs have one of the highest rush rates in the entire country, and it's just about the only way they've moved the ball offensively this season.
San Diego State may have beaten Toledo, but Burmeister finished the game 13-of-25 for 65 passing yards. That brings his season-long total to 230 yards on 65 attempts (3.6 per attempt) with two touchdowns and two interceptions.
San Diego State ranks 131st in Passing Success Rate. Yes, dead last. If it gets stuck behind the chains, the Aztecs have almost no chance of converting in obvious passing-down situations without flukes.
They do have a decent rushing attack, but it's very hard to run the ball on Boise State's defense. While SDSU ranks 49th in Rushing Success Rate, the Boise defense that ranks top-30 in both Rushing Success Rate Allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
Look back at Boise's game against Oregon State — outside of one long run that the run-heavy Beavers broke, Boise did an excellent job bottling up OSU's top two rushers to just 79 yards on 21 combined carries.
Burmeister also registered his worst passing grade of the season against Toledo last start. He has one big-time throw and three turnover-worthy plays to this point in the year.
Boise State Broncos
Boise brought in former Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach and former Boise State head coach Dirk Koetter to try to improve the Broncos offense. Koetter was helping as an offensive analyst to this point in the season, but the word out of Boise is that he's now running the entire offense his way.
He's chosen to simplify the quarterback's job at the line of scrimmage and make the reads and checks at the line easier. 6-foot-6 quarterback Taylen Green will make his first career start for the Broncos after he came on in relief against Oregon State in Week 1.
Green finished that game 19-of-27 for 155 yards and one interception. The offensive line and receiving room are pretty underwhelming at Boise right now, but Green could potentially use his legs to extend plays and create some offense in a game that doesn't expect to have much of it.
The Broncos probably won't find much success running the ball in this game against the SDSU front, even though this is not the same elite Aztec defensive line from years prior.
San Diego State vs. Boise State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Diego State and Boise State match up statistically:
San Diego State Offense vs. Boise State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 49 | 19 | |
| Line Yards | 91 | 28 | |
| Pass Success | 131 | 4 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 45 | 23 | |
| Havoc | 114 | 60 | |
| Finishing Drives | 120 | 33 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Boise State Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 92 | 68 | |
| Line Yards | 119 | 77 | |
| Pass Success | 98 | 83 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 59 | 75 | |
| Havoc | 108 | 79 | |
| Finishing Drives | 80 | 59 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 115 | 8 |
| PFF Coverage | 66 | 40 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 6 | 72 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.5 (107) | 27.7 (92) |
| Rush Rate | 63.6% (12) | 52.0% (80) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
San Diego State vs. Boise State Betting Pick
It's nearly impossible to be worse than the Broncos offense was against UTEP last week. The decision to fire Plough, combined with Bachmeier's transfer, may end up being addition through subtraction.
Koetter has experience running offenses at the NFL and collegiate levels. Even if the talent isn't up to par, you'd expect an inspired, all-in Boise effort for this Friday night home conference opener.
Boise's defense shouldn't have any issues at all stopping SDSU's rushing attack and completely shutting down any Aztec offense.
The real question is whether or not the Broncos can really get out to a margin. A week ago, I'd have probably said no.
But a new week, a new quarterback and a new coordinator have me willing to buy low on this offense. Given that San Diego State ranks so poorly in tackling grades, per PFF, it wouldn't take much for the Broncos to break a big play or two and get separation in this game.
