The Boise State Broncos (6-1) are coming off a massive win over UNLV, and they now have a clear path to gain an at-large bid for the College Football playoff.
The Broncos are getting set to host the incoming San Diego State Aztecs (3-4), who are 2-0 in Mountain West play.
The Aztecs fell short last week against the Washington State Cougars, but it was a valiant effort, considering they were massive underdogs before the matchup.
Oddsmakers have the Aztecs as 23.5-point underdogs, and the total set is at 57.5. The game kicks off at 8:00 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FS1.
Read on for my San Diego State vs Boise State predictions and college football picks for their NCAAF Week 10 matchup.
San Diego State Aztecs vs Boise State Broncos Prediction
- San Diego State vs. Boise State Pick: Boise State Team Total Over 40.5
My San Diego State-Boise State best bet is on the Broncos team total over 40.5 points, with the best available line at DraftKings Sportsbook.
San Diego State vs Boise State Odds, Lines, Spread
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | +1300 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | -2800 |
- San Diego State vs Boise State Spread: Boise State -23.5
- San Diego State vs Boise State Over/Under: 57 Points
- San Diego State vs Boise State Moneyline: Boise State -2800 · San Diego State +1300
San Diego State Football vs Boise State Football Preview
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview
The Aztecs stunningly had a two-point lead late in the game against the Cougars last week, but Cougs quarterback John Mateer rallied his team to victory, scoring the final fourteen points of the contest.
It has been a rough season for the Aztecs, but they have yet to suffer a loss in conference play.
Well, that statement will no longer be valid after Friday night because there is no world where I envision the Aztecs pulling off the upset. They have too many questions on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, it's been an outright disaster from the beginning. The Aztecs rank 131st nationally in Rush Success Rate and 102nd in Pass Success Rate.
They rank 115th in Havoc allowed, nightmare fuel for head coach Sean Lewis, as the Bronco's defense ranks among the top 10 FBS squads in defensive Havoc. It's not only been complete ineptness with a lack of explosives, but even when the Aztecs enter the scoring area, they struggle to finish off drives with a touchdown.
Running back Marquez Cooper is having an excellent season, as he's up to eight touchdowns while averaging over five yards per carry. But the Aztecs only run the ball 54% of the time, and the one area you can try to expose the Bronco's defense is through the air.
Cooper will be the focus of the Broncos' defense in game prep, adding even more weight to quarterback Danny O'Neil's shoulders. O'Neil is having a fine season, racking up over 1200 yards through the air but just six touchdown passes to two interceptions.
The Broncos are vulnerable in the secondary but rank 27th in PFF's Coverage grades, so their success rate statistics on the defense side of the ball might be misleading.
The Aztecs love to go up-tempo under Sean Lewis' offensive system, but you are playing with fire if you are going to try to keep up in a track meet against the Broncos.
Defensively, it is another nightmare scenario for the Broncos. Not only are they going up against the best running back in the nation in Ashton Jeanty, but they struggle mightily to defend the run.
They are outside the top 100 teams nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards. Their secondary is a much superior unit, but the Broncos run the ball nearly 56% of the time.
They are a decent defense at preventing Finishing and Quality Drives and are 51st in tackling. My worry is that Jeanty can rip off nonstop explosive runs during the evening, which will force the defense to be in constant catch-up mode.
I can not back the Aztecs here; there are too many glaring concerns in their rush defense, and their offense's inconsistency will put them behind the chains for most of the game. If Lewis does not slow the game, it could get ugly quickly.
Boise State Broncos Betting Preview
Many will say the Broncos were fortunate to beat UNLV last week due to some questionable officiating, but they proved they were the best team in the conference.
It is an exciting time in Boise, Idaho, as the Broncos can earn a spot in the College Football Playoff if they win out.
Heisman front-runner running back Ashton Jeanty has put up ridiculous video game numbers in 2024. Jeanty is averaging 8.76 YPC with 18 rushing touchdowns and almost 1400 yards on the ground through seven games.
That means he averages around 200 rushing yards and three scores per contest. That is unheard of, which is why it might be the rare case that a running back wins the Heisman Trophy at the conclusion of the season.
Jeanty is licking his chops because the Aztecs can not defend the run if their lives depended on it. No matter how loaded the box gets, Jeanty will shred the defense numerous times, and we could see his best performance of the season to date.
That is a lofty expectation, but the Bronco's offensive line will bully the Aztecs in the trench all evening long. The Broncos' passing attack through quarterback Maddux Madsen has also been impressive, as they rank 35th nationally in Pass Success Rate.
The Aztecs' secondary is the strength of their defense, but I have a feeling there will be numerous occasions when they focus too much on stopping Jeanty, and Madsen will have the ability to throw over the top, leading to explosive pass plays down the field.
The Bronco's offense is amongst the FBS best in Quality and Finishing Drives, ranking in the top 15 in both categories. 29 points is a bit of a disappointment for the Bronco's offense, which is what they scored last week against the Rebels.
Defensively, they should be able to stuff the Aztecs' running game. They've also created a ton of Havoc, and they should have their way with the miserable Aztec offensive front.
They've been a bit exposed in the secondary, but as I alluded to earlier, they rank 27th in PFF's Coverage grades, so I do not have too many concerns about them being exposed through the air.
San Diego State vs Boise State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Diego State and Boise State match up statistically:
San Diego State Offense vs. Boise State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 131 | 56 | |
| Line Yards | 67 | 48 | |
| Pass Success | 102 | 92 | |
| Havoc | 115 | 9 | |
| Finishing Drives | 126 | 63 | |
| Quality Drives | 118 | 59 | |
Boise State Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 28 | 104 | |
| Line Yards | 39 | 124 | |
| Pass Success | 35 | 30 | |
| Havoc | 8 | 70 | |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 72 | |
| Quality Drives | 14 | 53 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 51 | 125 |
| PFF Coverage | 28 | 27 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 126 | 76 |
| Middle 8 | 39 | 31 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.7 (22) | 27.2 (65) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (83) | 56% (40) |
How to Bet My San Diego State vs Boise State Pick
Instead of targeting the game's total, I am going to focus on the Broncos' total.
Not only is it a tremendous matchup for the offense, but their edges on the defensive side of the ball will set them up to dominate the field position battle.
The Aztecs rank outside the top 120 FBS teams in Special Teams, so their inability to be consistent in this area will help the Broncos' offense immensely.
The Broncos' defensive front will have their way with the Aztecs' offensive trench all night, and I would not be surprised to see them force a couple of turnovers.
That said, the offense has a dream matchup against the Aztecs' soft rushing defense, and I have a feeling Jeanty is going to put up another ridiculous video-game performance.
I would not be surprised to see them run up the score, especially with Jeanty in the heat of a Heisman Trophy race. They may let their foot off the gas a bit late, but I do not think that will stop them from accumulating a ton of offense early before that occurs.
That is why I will stay away from the spread, but that will be enough time for their offense to hang a crooked number, and they should bounce back from their 29-point performance last week.
If you are worried about them being flat after last week’s win, that is more reason to take the team total, just in case the offense takes a bit to wake up.
Pick: Boise State Team Total Over 40.5 (Play to 42)
San Diego State vs Boise State Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID |
| Date: | Friday, Nov. 1 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
San Diego State vs Boise State will be played at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho, on Friday, Nov. 1 at 8 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FS1.
San Diego State vs Boise State Weather
