The San Diego State Aztecs face trouble on the road as they take on the Central Michigan Chippewas on Saturday, Sept. 28 at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
The Aztecs are coming off a bye week, but injuries have created uncertainty on the roster.
The Chippewas won last week's game against Ball State and are now 1-0 in MAC play. The victory moves the Chips to 2-2 on the season, and they're now 2.5-point home favorites.
The total has fallen to 53.5, and I would not be surprised to see it dip further.
Let's dive into my San Diego State vs. Central Michigan predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 28.
San Diego State vs Central Michigan Prediction
- San Diego State vs Central Michigan Pick: Central Michigan -2.5
My CMU-SDSU best bet is on the Chippewas to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
San Diego State vs Central Michigan Odds
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 / -110 | +120 |
| Central Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 / -110 | -140 |
- San Diego State vs Central Michigan Point Spread: San Diego State +2.5 (-110) · Central Michigan -2.5 (-110)
- San Diego State vs Central Michigan Total: Over/Under 52.5
- San Diego State vs Central Michigan Moneyline: San Diego State +120 · Central Michigan -140
San Diego State vs Central Michigan Preview
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview: Problems on Offense
The Aztec offense has been miserable. Quarterback Danny O'Neil suffered an injury a couple of weeks ago at Oregon State and has not played since.
O'Neil has been practicing this week, but there's no official word on whether redshirt freshman Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson will be in line for another start. He completed 13-of-29 passes and threw one touchdown and two interceptions in the 31-10 loss to Cal on Sept. 14.
Regardless, there are better situations to be in.
San Diego State entered the matchup 127th in Passing Success Rate and outside the top 130 in Finishing Drives and Quality Drives.
There's a reason that our BBOC podcast plays "Nowhere Fast" while Collin Wilson breaks down his weekly total pick for the Aztecs. The offense spends more time going backward than forward.
As if the QB situation couldn't be any worse, the Aztecs have not been able to generate a ground game, either. They're 112th in Rushing Success Rate despite ranking 20th in Line Yards.
The unit should be much more efficient for an offense that's 13th in the nation in seconds per play. The offensive line is metrically generating some push, but it needs help to sustain success.
To make matters worse, things are just as ugly on the defensive side of the ball.
The Aztecs rank outside the top 100 in the following defensive metrics:
- Rush Success Rate
- Line Yards
- Havoc
That also doesn't include a special teams unit that ranks outside the top 100 in SP+. SDSU might rank 15th in Defensive Passing Success Rate, but the Chippewas do most of their damage on the ground anyway.
There are far too many uncertainties on both sides of the ball for me to trust the Aztecs. If their defense struggles to stop the run, it could get ugly early.
Central Michigan Chippewas Betting Preview: Stellar Ground Attack
The Chips squeaked it out last week against Ball State, and it was an offensive slugfest. Ball State was projected to be one of the worst teams in the MAC entering 2024, and CMU put up 589 yards of offense, averaging 11 yards per play.
What was more impressive about the Chippewas' offensive performance was that they racked up over 400 yards of rushing on the ground. That's a great sign heading into the matchup against an Aztecs team that struggles to defend against the run.
The Chips rank top-25 in both Rushing Success Rate and Offensive Line Yards, as well as 32nd in Quality Drives. If the ground game is working, the offense will likely be able to sustain long drives.
The key for the Chips entering the matchup will be their ability to capitalize when crossing SDSU's 40-yard line. The Aztecs have been stingy defensively against their opponents in the red zone.
However, defense has been an entirely different story for the Chips. They rank outside the top 100 in multiple defensive metrics, including Defensive Passing Success Rate and Defensive Rushing Success Rate.
The good news is that the Aztec offense needs to be more proficient, regardless of who starts at quarterback.
Central Michigan's game plan entering the matchup will be to control the time of possession with its excellent rushing attack. I expect the Chips to win the time-of-possession battle, which should carry them to a home victory.
San Diego State vs Central Michigan Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Diego State and Central Michigan match up statistically:
San Diego State Offense vs. Central Michigan Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 112 | 101 | |
| Line Yards | 20 | 95 | |
| Pass Success | 127 | 110 | |
| Havoc | 82 | 83 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 132 | 106 | |
| Quality Drives | 129 | 110 | |
Central Michigan Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 23 | 112 | |
| Line Yards | 18 | 117 | |
| Pass Success | 113 | 15 | |
| Havoc | 80 | 107 | |
| Finishing Drives | 120 | 57 | |
| Quality Drives | 32 | 42 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 29 | 38 |
| PFF Coverage | 27 | 71 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 108 | 62 |
| Middle 8 | 75 | 89 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.0 (13) | 26.6 (55) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (75) | 52% (70) |
San Diego State vs Central Michigan Pick & Prediction
I like the Chippewas to take care of business at home here.
The Aztecs offense hasn't shown any signs of efficiency or consistency thus far, and their weak run defense gives me a lot of cause for concern.
The Chips must capitalize when they enter Aztec territory; otherwise, the game may slip away from them late. After rushing for over 400 yards last week, there's no doubt their potent rushing attack will take care of business.
I also lean toward the under, but I preferred it when it was still at 55.5. Regardless, I'm happy to lay under a field goal with Central Michigan.
Pick: Central Michigan -2.5 (Play to -3)
How to Watch San Diego State vs Central Michigan Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mt. Pleasant, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
San Diego State vs Central Michigan Betting Trends
- Central Michigan has been the sharp side here, landing 48% of the tickets and generating 70% of the cash.
- The over has also been a sharp side, taking 52% of the bets and garnering 71% of the money.
San Diego State vs Central Michigan Weather
