The San Diego State Aztecs (3-6, 2-2 MWC) head to Las Vegas, Nevada, to take on the UNLV Rebels (7-2, 3-1) in Mountain West action on Saturday, Nov. 16. This game kicks at 10:30 p.m. ET and can be seen live on CBS Sports Network.
UNLV is seeking to remain in the MWC Championship hunt after beating Hawaii, 29-27, on the island a week ago.
Meanwhile, the Aztecs are still fighting for bowl eligibility in head coach Sean Lewis’ first season at the helm. The Aztecs need to win their next 3 games against UNLV, Utah State and Air Force to reach the 6-win mark.
UNLV is listed as a -20.5 home favorite with the over/under set at 54.5. So, where does the betting value lie for this Mountain West matchup?
Let's take a look at my San Diego State vs. UNLV predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 16.
San Diego State Aztecs vs UNLV Rebels Prediction, Picks
- San Diego State vs UNLV Pick: UNLV -20.5
My UNLV vs. San Diego State best bet is on the Seminoles to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
San Diego State vs UNLV Odds, Spread, Lines
| San Diego State Aztecs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+22 -110 | 54.5 -110 / -110 | +900 |
| UNLV Rebels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-22 -110 | 54.5 -110 / -110 | -1800 |
- San Diego State vs UNLV Spread: San Diego State +22 · UNLV -22
- San Diego State vs UNLV Over/Under: 54.5 Total Points
- San Diego State vs UNLV Moneyline: San Diego State ML +900 · UNLV ML -1800
San Diego State vs UNLV College Football Betting Preview
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview: Not the Right Personnel
San Diego State comes in off a tough stretch where three straight losses have eliminated any momentum built earlier in the season.
SDSU lost to New Mexico last week, 21-16. The Aztecs were outgained by 130 yards and really struggled to move the ball consistently.
The Lobos defense is one of the worst statistical defenses in FBS football, and it was shocking that SDSU amassed only 341 yards on 88 plays.
This season has been a struggle for SDSU. It doesn't have the personnel required to run Lewis' offense, and the defense has allowed 1,016 combined yards over the last two weeks.
SDSU has a weapon in running back Marquez Cooper, who has taken 70% of the team’s rushing attempts. However, he has still been held under 100 rushing yards in three of the last four outings.
The UNLV front seven is excellent against the run, holding teams to an average of 113 yards on the ground and 3.5 yards per carry on average.
The unit ranks top-40 nationally in both Defensive EPA Per Rush and Rush Explosiveness allowed on defense. I can't see SDSU running the ball effectively here, which will create passing situations that will not favor the Aztecs.
UNLV Rebels Betting Preview: In Mountain West Contention
UNLV escaped a trip to the Hawaiian Islands with a slim 29-27 win over Hawaii last week. The spot was tricky, traveling out to Hawaii off a massive loss to Boise State that preceded a bye week.
UNLV did an excellent job defensively, containing Hawaii's attack with the exception of two deep “Schager-Bombs” from Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager that kept the Rainbow Warriors in the game.
The Rebs allowed only 92 rushing yards and 3.0 yards per carry on the ground. Plus, Schager completed just 40% of his throws and was sacked six times.
Two missed UNLV field goals kept the score closer than what the Rebels would have preferred, but they're still squarely in the Mountain West race and would love nothing more than a rematch with Boise State.
Offensively, UNLV has been much more dynamic in the passing game with the switch to Hajj-Malik Williams at quarterback. Williams has completed 64% of his throws with a 13:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio with outstanding wide receiver Ricky White III being the primary beneficiary.
This added layer of the attack has opened up the “Go-Go” offense to gash opponents in the run game.
SDSU has allowed 519 rush yards over the last two weeks and was completely decimated against UNM last week. UNLV should execute on the ground, and I'd expect plenty of explosives in the rush attack.
UNLV vs San Diego State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UNLV and San Diego State match up statistically:
San Diego State Offense vs. UNLV Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 125 | 35 | |
| Line Yards | 65 | 44 | |
| Pass Success | 114 | 53 | |
| Havoc | 102 | 22 | |
| Finishing Drives | 121 | 116 | |
| Quality Drives | 106 | 43 | |
UNLV Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 46 | 114 | |
| Line Yards | 10 | 128 | |
| Pass Success | 58 | 61 |  |
| Havoc | 50 | 111 | |
| Finishing Drives | 31 | 82 | |
| Quality Drives | 15 | 79 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 115 | 85 |
| PFF Coverage | 69 | 23 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 106 | 24 |
| Middle 8 | 53 | 45 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.3 (18) | 27.2 (70) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (87) | 68% (6) |
How to Bet My San Diego State vs UNLV Pick
I'm going to lay the points with UNLV at home this week.
This is a massive spot for the Rebels to get things clicking on offense against an Aztecs team that's just not any good.
The UNLV defense will have massive advantages against an SDSU offense that continues to go nowhere fast.
SDSU ranks just 131st nationally in Offensive Finishing Drives and 1288th in Havoc Allowed. This is a bad sign for a UNLV defense that has registered 28 sacks and 62 tackles for loss this season to go along with 14 interceptions.
UNLV has an exquisite secondary full of ballhawks who fly to the football. This team ranks 12th nationally in Defensive Passing Down Success Rate allowed and 26th in Passing Down EPA Per Pass allowed.
SDSU runs the ball quite often on first and second down in an attempt to get ahead of the chains, but there's a path where the UNLV defensive line takes over this game and makes life very difficult for the SDSU offensive line.
This is simply a bad matchup for the Aztecs. After the squeaker last week, I can see UNLV being laser-focused in this game and notching a convincing win over an inferior opponent. Lay anything under three touchdowns.
Pick: UNLV -20.5
San Diego State vs UNLV Channel, How to Watch, Location, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
San Diego State faces UNLV in Las Vegas on Saturday, Nov. 16 at 10:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
San Diego State vs UNLV Betting Trends
San Diego State vs UNLV Weather
