San Jose State vs San Diego State Odds
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -102 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -152 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -120 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +126 |
This is potentially a big game in the Mountain West Championship race. With Jake Haener back for Fresno State and an easy schedule down the stretch, both of these teams need to win out to have any chance at winning the West division.
San Jose State is tied for the division lead with a 4-1 conference record. Unfortunately, that one loss did come to Fresno State, which would give the Bulldogs the tiebreaker.
Regardless of the title picture, the Spartans are having a fantastic season at 6-2 and have secured their second bowl game in the last three years.
Following a 12-2 season and a run to the Mountain West championship game last year, the Aztecs have taken a step back and enter this week with a 5-4 record. They lost a lot from last season but have still won three of the last four games.
If Fresno State were to falter, the winner of this game could be right there to take advantage. So who has the edge in the El Camino Real Rivalry?
San Jose State Spartans
While I have never been the biggest fan of Chevan Cordeiro, he has been much better at cutting out the mistakes that plagued him at Hawaii. He has just two interceptions this season with 11 touchdown passes and is averaging 278 yards per game through the air.
The Spartans have the sixth-highest passing rate in the country and lead the Mountain West in passing. Elijah Cooks is the go-to on the outside, averaging over 87 yards per game.
When they do run the ball, Kairee Robinson has been solid, and Cordeiro has seven scores with his legs too.
San Jose State’s strength has been its defense, though. This has been the best defense in the conference, and they rank 17th in the country in Success Rate on defense. They have been terrific at stopping the run, allowing just 99 yards per game on the ground during conference play.
Two edge rushers for the Spartans have made life miserable for opposing quarterbacks this year.
Viliami Fehoko and Cade Hall lead a defense that ranks 13th in the nation at creating Havoc. Fehoko leads the Mountain West with 14 tackles for loss and has seven sacks. As a team, they lead the conference in sacks and rank top 10 in the country.
San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State’s offense has been a mess this season. They’re averaging less than 20 points per game and rank 108th in the country in Success Rate, and when they do move the ball, they are even worse once they get into scoring position.
Unlike San Jose State, the Aztecs are clearly a run-first team, as they have been for years. The problem is, with Greg Bell moving on, they have really struggled to run the ball. They’re just 113th in Success Rate on the ground, and Jordan Byrd has averaged just 40 yards per game.
Quarterback Braxton Burmeister has been hurt, but whether it’s him or Jalen Mayden, neither has had much success through the air. The Aztecs have eight touchdown passes with seven interceptions this year.
Defense has always led the way for San Diego State, but this unit isn’t as dominant as they have been in the past. It's still solid, but 45th in the country in Success Rate is a step back from the usual top 25 range they’ve been in.
A big issue for the Aztecs has been tackling. They rank 125th in the country in tackling this season, and that is a huge problem. Jonah Tavai gets a ton of pressure on the quarterback, but if he gets the ball off it could be trouble for San Diego State.
San Jose State vs San Diego State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Jose State and San Diego State match up statistically:
San Jose State Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 64 | 30 | |
| Line Yards | 77 | 64 | |
| Pass Success | 69 | 79 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 12 | 42 | |
| Havoc | 74 | 43 | |
| Finishing Drives | 54 | 8 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
San Diego State Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 113 | 22 | |
| Line Yards | 110 | 37 | |
| Pass Success | 98 | 38 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 79 | 48 | |
| Havoc | 120 | 13 | |
| Finishing Drives | 127 | 12 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 78 | 125 |
| PFF Coverage | 76 | 39 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 130 | 6 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.1 (85) | 28.9 (114) |
| Rush Rate | 43.6% (118) | 60.7% (19) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
San Jose State vs San Diego State Betting Pick
As solid as this San Diego State defense has traditionally been, they have struggled to defend the pass the season.
The Aztecs rank just 79th in the country at passing Success Rate on defense this season and now have to face a team that throws the ball a ton.
The best weapon the Aztecs have is Tavai getting after the quarterback, but the Spartans are 12th in the country in pass blocking, and Cordeiro is able to use his legs when needed.
All San Diego State wants to do is run the football, but they haven’t had much success at it this season, and San Jose State is elite at defending the run. They’re 22nd in the country in Success Rate and rank 14th in Stuff Rate.
San Jose State has scored at least 28 points in five of their last six games, and should be able to reach that mark again against a San Diego State team that has struggled against the pass.
If it does, San Diego State would need to score over 25 points to cover, something they have done just once all season against an FBS opponent.
Expecting the Aztecs to do that against the best defense in the conference that has excelled at stopping the run seems unlikely. Look for the Spartans to stay alive in the Mountain West title picture with a big win over San Diego State here.
Pick: San Jose State -2.5 ⋅ Play to -3 |
