Who would've thought at the beginning of the season that Friday night's matchup between the San Jose State Spartans (3-0) and Washington State Cougars (3-0) would be a battle between two undefeated squads?
The Cougars are coming off an Apple Cup victory over Washington last weekend and now have to shift focus to their matchup against the Spartans quickly.
Meanwhile, the Spartans are a surprising 3-0 with a solid win over Air Force in their conference opener. This is their first real test of the season against a team coming from a power conference last season.
Washington State enters as a -12 favorite with an over/under of 56.
Let's dive deeper into my San Jose State vs. Washington State predictions and college football picks for Friday, Sept. 20.
San Jose State Spartans vs Washington State Cougars Prediction
- San Jose State vs Washington State Pick: Over 55.5
My SJSU-Washington State best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
San Jose State vs Washington State Odds, Line, Spread
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -105 | 55 -115o / -105u | +450 |
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -115 | 55 -115o / -105u | -600 |
- San Jose State vs Washington State Point Spread: San Jose State +13 · Washington State -13
- San Jose State vs Washington State Total: Over/Under 55.5 Total Points
- San Jose State vs Washington State Moneyline: San Jose State ML +450 · Washington State ML -600
San Jose State Football vs Washington State Football
San Jose State Spartans Betting Preview: Great Numbers, Weak Schedule
The Spartans entered the year full of uncertainty, and many depicted them as one of the worst FBS programs in the country. We'll find out if that take is accurate on Friday night — and we should find out rather quickly.
The biggest reason for their success thus far has been wide receiver Nick Nash. Nash is by far the Spartans' biggest weapon, as he has 34 catches on 45 targets thus far in 2024.
Nash also has six receiving touchdowns and one passing score. The offense flows through him, so they'll be in serious trouble if he can't get anything going.
It's tough to figure out what to make of some of San Jose State's opponents. Thus far, SJSU has faced Sacramento State, Air Force and Kennesaw State, which tells me we should take its metrics with a grain of salt.
First, the Spartans rank 127th in Rushing Success Rate and 134th in Line Tards. That's atrocious, given the teams they've faced thus far.
However, they rank 22nd in Passing Success Rate, as quarterback Emmett Brown has been lighting it up through the air. He has a 9:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio through three games.
The Cougs' secondary hasn't been great this season, so the Spartans should be able to maintain success through the air. However, it'll be a step up in talent and competition for Brown, especially since the Cougs are 24th in PFF coverage grading.
San Jose State's numbers are also substantial defensively. But given the teams it's faced, I can't take the metrics seriously.
The Spartans rank top-50 in the following defensive categories:
- Line Yards (22nd)
- Passing Success Rate (15th)
- Havoc (41st)
- Finishing Drives (48th)
- Quality Drives (20th)
- PFF Tackling (40th)
- PFF Coverage (27th)
Looking at these stats without context would tell a story about the defense being vital to this team. But remember, take these statistics with a grain of salt.
The Cougars offense is nothing special, but I'm still determining how legit the Spartans are on the defensive side of the ball. I believe in the Brown-Nash duo, so they should generate offense through the air.
Washington State Cougars Betting Preview: Smoke and Mirrors?
Washington State was fortunate to leave the Apple Cup victorious. The Cougs finished last week's game with a -1.54 Total EPA, whereas the Huskies finished with a mark of 3.51.
I didn't see anything from the Cougars that made me think they were the better team, so I wouldn't put too much stock into their 3-0 record. Both defenses seemed to be getting gashed in that game, but the offenses couldn't capitalize on the scoreboard.
Wazzu's metrics are underwhelming considering its undefeated start. It ranks 80th in Rushing Success Rate and 60th in Passing Success Rate, but on paper, the Spartans' secondary has been a shutdown unit thus far.
The Cougars will find success offensively in the matchup, especially with quarterback John Mateer. Mateer has been excellent thus far despite his two interceptions. To counter that, he's thrown seven touchdowns.
He's also a dual-threat who has run for 335 yards and added four scores on the ground.
There's no questioning the potential ceiling of this Cougs offense, but from what I saw last week, I'll have to get another data point to have a better idea of what to expect moving forward.
The offense ranks top-60 in both Finishing Drives and Quality Drives, so I expect them to cap possessions with touchdowns rather than settling for field goals.
Defensively, the Cougs are a big question mark in this matchup. They could be in trouble against the duo of Brown and Nash.
Wazzu sits 120th in Defensive Havoc and outside the top 75 in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and Quality Drives Allowed. The Spartans have played cupcakes thus far, but there's no denying some of their offensive talent.
The Cougars' special teams have been among the worst in the nation, ranking outside the top 125. They're also 128th in PFF tackling, so there are many problems that need to be solved.
Washington State vs San Jose State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Washington State and San Jose State match up statistically:
San Jose State Offense vs. Washington State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 127 | 83 | |
| Line Yards | 134 | 69 | |
| Pass Success | 22 | 68 | |
| Havoc | 115 | 120 | |
| Finishing Drives | 52 | 55 |  |
| Quality Drives | 107 | 75 | |
Washington State Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 80 | 65 | |
| Line Yards | 77 | 22 | |
| Pass Success | 60 | 15 | |
| Havoc | 43 | 41 | |
| Finishing Drives | 55 | 48 | |
| Quality Drives | 42 | 20 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 40 | 128 |
| PFF Coverage | 27 | 24 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 107 | 128 |
| Middle 8 | 3 | 14 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.3 (30) | 25.9 (39) |
| Rush Rate | 46% (105) | 57% (39) |
How to Bet My San Jose State vs Washington State Pick
I can't trust the Spartans because of their weak strength of schedule. These metrics look appealing, but it's not wise to trust them in this instance.
One thing I am sure about is that both of these offenses are going to find success. For that reason, I like the over in the matchup.
A lot of sharp money has started to pour in on the total at 55.5, so I would advise grabbing that number before it reaches 56.
These offenses are also lightning quick, ranking inside the top 40 in seconds per play. Many are overrating the Spartans defense and must realize the competition they've faced thus far.
This is an over play for me and one of my favorite bets of the entire weekend.
Pick: Over 55.5 (Play to 56)
How to Watch San Jose State vs Washington State
| Location: | Martin Stadium, Pullman, WA |
| Date: | Friday, Sept. 20 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | The CW |
Washington State vs San Jose State Betting Trends
- San Jose State has been the sharp side here, landing 37% of the tickets but 69% of the money.
- The over has taken 34% of the bets but generated 52% of the cash.
Washington State-SJSU Weather
