Saturday Night College Football Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 11 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Let’s close out the final regular-season college football Saturday strong.
Our staff has found three best bets for Week 13’s evening slate, including picks for Florida State vs Florida, Clemson vs South Carolina and Colorado State vs Hawaii.
Read on for our Saturday college football best bets for Nov. 25.
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Florida State vs. Florida
Florida State responded well last week despite the injury to star quarterback Jordan Travis, but that was against North Alabama.
The Florida Gators present a different challenge, especially at night in The Swamp.
Florida is also without starter Graham Mertz after he broke his collarbone last week, but backup Max Brown looked solid down the stretch of the Missouri game.
I think each team’s run game will be essential to help these inexperienced quarterbacks find rhythm and success.
The Gators have the edge in that department, ranking 50th nationally in Rush Success Rate and 21st in Rush Success Rate allowed. Conversely, Florida State ranks 93rd in Rush Success Rate and 32nd in Rush Success Rate allowed.
The advanced metrics are skewed, given the Gators have faced the nation's fourth-toughest schedule while Florida State's faced the 62nd-toughest one. This is likely the toughest team that Florida State has played since LSU in Week 1.
I expect the Gators to cause some problems for junior quarterback Tate Rodemaker. This will be a much faster defense than FSU is accustomed to seeing.
I figure Florida should be able to jump out to an early lead and utilize their ground game to maintain possession and control the clock.
So, give me the Gators in this rivalry game at +6.5, a line I'd play down to +5.
Pick: Florida +6.5
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Clemson vs. South Carolina
It’s hard to explain precisely why or how South Carolina will win here. The on-the-field matchup is brutal, with the Gamecocks’ pass-happy attack running directly into Clemson’s stellar pass rush and secondary.
But this is what Shane Beamer does.
There’s something about playing spoiler at this time of year. The Gamecocks beat Tennessee and this Clemson team to close last year. The season before, they beat Florida and Auburn as heavy ‘dogs in the season’s final month.
I think the Gamecocks do it again.
For what it’s worth, South Carolina is playing better. The ‘Cocks have won three straight and have covered in three of their past four. They’re coming off a win against Kentucky. Beamer-led teams seem to improve as the season progresses.
Beamer-led teams also fare well in non-con matchups. The Gamecocks are 5-3 ATS in such games underneath Beamer’s tutelage. The coaching staff pulls out all the stops against non-SEC competition.
Also, South Carolina has a clear motivational advantage. The Gamecocks need one more win for bowl eligibility, while Clemson’s season has already ended in frustration – I’m unsure if the Tigers can get up and finish the season with pride.
I also don’t trust Clemson’s offense, which has been relatively lackluster this season behind Cade Klubnik.
Spencer Rattler is a gamer, and I’d rather catch a touchdown with him at home than lay one with Klubnik on the road, especially when factoring in motivation.
Pick: South Carolina +7.5
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Colorado State vs. Hawaii
The Rams need one more win to achieve bowl eligibility. They’ve won their past two against Tin Cans in the MWC, and Hawai’i qualified as another.
The ‘Bows defense has been dreadful against the run and the opposite of opportunistic against the pass.
Earlier in the season, the Rams would have been ill-suited to take advantage of the Rainbows’ weaknesses, but that's no longer the case in Week 13.
In the past two weeks, freshman sensation Justin Marshall has emerged, tallying 37 carries for 217 yards. He should shred the Hawai’i run defense, limiting Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi’s turnover-worthy plays.
On that front, BFN has just two picks in the past two games after operating as a turnover machine for much of the season.
Given the motivation factor favoring CSU and the fact Hawaii has been insanely boom or bust on the island, I have to play CSU in this spot.
At home, Hawaii's pulled upset victories over New Mexico State and Air Force. But when the bottom falls out, it’s ugly. They gave up 41 to SDSU, and 35 to San Jose State in a shutout loss.
I’m banking on the ‘Bows raising the white flag early with the chance of a bowl game off the table in Week 13.
Pick: Colorado State -5.5
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