It's here.
Week 14 of the college football season is upon us, which means Championship Week and bowl season are inching ever closer. Yet, rather than preemptively mourning the waning weeks of this year's college football season, there is cause for celebration: Despite COVID-19 constantly wreaking havoc on each week's schedule, we've made it this far.
To celebrate, our college football staff has broken down its eight favorite bets on the Week 14 slate, ranging from important games like Alabama vs. LSU and BYU vs. Coastal Carolina to less highly-acclaimed matchups, such as Marshall vs. Rice and Florida Atlantic vs. Georgia Southern.
Now, let's make the most of these games while we still can.
Saturday College Football Best Bets for Week 14:
Check our top Saturday picks below, each of which comes from one of the following eight games. Click any of the games below to navigate to a specific matchup.
All listed odds have been updated as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Specific bet recommendations at the end of each matchup breakdown come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing.
Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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#15 Oklahoma State vs. TCU
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| Oklahoma State Odds | -2.5 [BET NOW] |
| TCU Odds | +2.5 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | -130 / +107 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 51.5 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
The story for most of the season was the success of the Oklahoma State defense. After allowing just 17.8 points per game through the first six games, the Pokes have allowed 41 and 44 points over the last two weeks. Giving up 41 points and 492 yards against Oklahoma is understandable and can be excused, but allowing 44 points and 639 yards to Texas Tech is a cause for concern.
Despite the struggles recently, Oklahoma State still has one of the best secondaries in the Big 12. Cornerbacks Rodarius Williams and Jarrick Bernard-Converse are both elite shutdown defenders on the outside.
The Pokes defense ranks eighth in the country in Passing Success and should have no problem shutting down a TCU passing attack that has been non-existent this season.
The Horned Frogs are averaging just 119.5 passing yards over their last four games. They rank 115th in the country in passing Success Rate this year.
The TCU defense has been strong all season, no surprise for a Gary Patterson-led team.
But the Horned Frogs have benefited from strong performances against the bad teams in the Big 12. Against Kansas State, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Kansas, TCU allowed just 286.5 yards per game.
But against Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas and West Virginia, the TCU defense allowed 425.3 yards per game.
Oklahoma State has been inconsistent this year, but it has been able to win even when it isn’t at its best. The Pokes know they need to win out to have any chance at the Big 12 title game.
Tylan Wallace, a Fort Worth native, will be the best player on the field for either team, and as good as the TCU defense is, it has no answer for Wallace.
TCU is too one-dimensional on offense, and the Pokes defensive line has been fantastic all year, ranking 21st in Stuff Rate, 28th in Line Yards, and seventh in Power Success.
This line has been bouncing all over the place, and Oklahoma State is actually listed at +1 at the time of this writing. If the Pokes remain the underdog, I would take them on the moneyline. If it swings back to them as favorites, I would take them up to -2.5.
Pick: Oklahoma State ML -108 or better
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Purdue vs. Nebraska
by Pat McMahon
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| Purdue Odds | -2 [BET NOW] |
| Nebraska Odds | +2 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | -122 / +100 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 63.5 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | Big Ten Network |
In a game involving two teams with a combined 3-7 record, you’re not going to see many elite units on the field. However, the Purdue passing game has been fantastic this season and is the one unit for either team you can trust to produce on a nightly basis.
The Boilermakers have one of the most talented wide receiver duos in all of college football in Rondale Moore and David Bell. Moore was out with an injury for the first three games of the season, but the future first-round draft pick hasn’t missed a beat since his return to the lineup. He’s already amassed 22 receptions for 192 yards and a rushing touchdown in just two games. Bell has been a constant all season, posting nearly 500 receiving yards and seven touchdowns through five games.
Starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell has missed the last two games with an injury, but the Purdue passing game has been just as good with backup Jack Plummer under center. Plummer is an experienced player who started six games for the Boilermakers a year ago. In fact, Plummer’s numbers the past two games have actually been better than O’Connell’s in the first three. Plummer has a higher passing rating than O’Connell and is completing 71.4% of his passes. Plummer has had the benefit of getting Moore back into the lineup, which would make any quarterback’s life easier.
On the flip side, the Nebraska quarterback position has been a back and forth battle between Adrian Martinez and Luke McCaffrey all season. Neither has performed well enough to secure the starting job for good, and the offense as a whole has struggled to find any sort of consistency.
Martinez got the start last week at Iowa and posted his best passing performance to date, going 18-of-20 through the air for 174 yards. However, he still only managed to put together two touchdown drives in the loss. Nebraska has failed to get the deep ball going at all this season, and it’s unlikely it’ll have a fix this year with its current personnel.
McCaffrey is a dangerous runner, but the offense has become too predictable when he’s in the game. Turnover and accuracy issues were a big reason he saw his snaps reduced last week.
With two suspect defenses and a pair of offenses that have struggled to finish off drives, I’m willing to back the passing attack that can consistently move the chains and will give its team more scoring chances on Saturday. Getting the Boilermakers at home laying less than a field goal to the Huskers is too good to pass up.
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#21 Marshall vs. Rice
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| Marshall Odds | -22.5 [BET NOW] |
| Rice Odds | +22.5 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | -5000 / +1300 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 45 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
The Rice Owls (1-2) and No. 21 Marshall Thundering Herd (7-0) both come into this affair ranked in the top 50% of total offenses in FBS. Rice has scored 10 touchdowns in three games this season all through the air. Rice is ranked 35th in FBS passing offense. Marshall has scored 34 touchdowns this season, evenly split at 17 through the air and on the ground. Marshall is ranked 51st in passing offense.
Rice is ranked 11th in FBS passing play Predicted Points Added with 0.49 points per passing attempt this season. Marshall has an excellent defense, with its passing defense being slightly weaker than its run defense. The Marshall passing defense is ranked 23rd in the country. Rice will have to look to pass the ball heavily in this outing.
Marshall is ranked 39th in FBS passing play PPA with 0.36 points per passing attempt this season. It would be ranked higher in this metric if it threw the ball more, but it features a solid run game. In terms of defensive rushing PPA, Rice’s run defense is better than its passing defense. I expect Marshall to look to the air early and often against the Rice defense in an effort to open up the run game.
My model has the total for this game at 55.5 points. Marshall is averaging 37.4 points per game while running the ball on more than 60% of plays. Rice is averaging 27 points per game with all scores coming from the passing game. The Owls will be forced to pass to keep up with the undefeated Herd. Marshall has the top-ranked rush defense in the country, so I expect the Rice passing attack to be a top priority. Take the over here as a motivated and undefeated Marshall will look to make a statement.
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#16 Wisconsin vs. #12 Indiana
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| Wisconsin Odds | -13 [BET NOW] |
| Indiana Odds | +13 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | -530 / +380 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 44.5 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
This number opened at 10.5 and has been on a steady march to two touchdowns. Keep in mind, when you’re dealing with a well-established power program, losing a key offensive starter, even a quarterback, still leaves room for a savvy coaching staff to get creative. In this case, Indiana is far from a program that can confidently play the “next man up” card. Indiana is the definition of new money, and unfortunately for the Hoosiers, losing their star quarterback is more than a setback. It’s the end of their magical season altogether.
Before going down with a season-ending knee injury, Michael Penix Jr. was on an unbelievable heater. The redshirt sophomore had thrown for an average of 348 yards over his last four full starts, including an impressive 13:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He nearly single-handedly won a road game at Ohio State and had saved his best for the fourth quarter all season long.
Before Penix Jr. took over as the full time starter, Indiana had cracked the top 50 in scoring offense just once under Tom Allen. This season, the Hoosiers were a threat to score on every possession until Saturday, and they’re catching a well-rested Badger team that finally has the kind of quarterback play to cover big numbers.
This bet is predicated on my belief that Graham Mertz, the highest-rated quarterback recruit in Wisconsin football history, will light up the Indiana defense. The Hoosiers defense has excelled at exactly two things this season: red-zone defense (first) and takeaways (fifth). Wisconsin, historically, has been a middle-of-the-pack team in the red zone, but its added passing threat this season has translated into a perfect 100% scoring percentage inside the 20.
The Badgers also have the third-highest touchdown percentage in the red zone. On the turnover front, the Badgers gave the game away to Northwestern, turning the ball over five times in their last game. Other than that, Wisconsin has only lost a fumble for the rest of the season. I see the Badgers tightening things up in that department and breaking through the middling Indiana defense.
I would play this all the way up to 17 points and foresee a blowout in favor of Wiscy.
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#13 BYU vs. #18 Coastal Carolina
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| BYU Odds | -10.5 [BET NOW] |
| Coastal Carolina Odds | +10.5 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | -400 / +290 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 61.5 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
BYU has full grown men on its offensive line. Pro Football Focus ranks it the No. 11 run-blocking line (89.0 grade) in all of college football. In particular, standout left tackle Brady Christensen has a run-blocking grade of 96.0.
We all love what the Chants have been able to do all season. In fact, their run defense (4.1 yards per rush against) has been one of their many strengths. However, the Sun Belt has yet to see anything like BYU. Wait… nevermind. Troy saw BYU up close and personal this season. The game ended 48-7 in favor of the Cougars.
I’ve already talked about how BYU will move the ball. That point had nothing to do with Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback Zach Wilson. This means the Coastal Carolina defense could be in for a long night. Wilson is near the top of almost every passing list: second in yards per attempt (11.5), third in passing touchdowns (26), third in completion percentage (74.3%), and seventh in passing yards (2,724).
Guess who is right behind him in many of these categories? None other than Coastal Carolina freshman quarterback Grayson McCall. Simply put, McCall has been a revelation this season for the 9-0 Chanticleers. However, by no means is McCall making the offense go all by himself. Statistically, Coastal also boasts one of the best rushing attacks in college football (5.1 yards per carry). In fact, running the ball out of its unique, two-back spread offense is what it most prefers to do.
The BYU defense has not had enough time to prepare for what Coastal will show it on Saturday. This is going to lead to big plays.
While I would have preferred the 58.5 world opening total, I like this play so much that 61 is not too bothersome. Take the BYU-Coastal Carolina over 61 (up to 63).
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Florida Atlantic vs. Georgia Southern
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| Florida Atlantic Odds | +2 [BET NOW] |
| Georgia Southern Odds | -2 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | +105 / -127 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 41 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 6 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Almost all of Florida Atlantic’s success has come on the ground this year. Entering the season, the Owls returned their top four running backs and have been gaining 4.8 yards per rush attempt. Malcolm Davidson has been their best back, averaging 7.2 yards per carry.
The passing attack has struggled, though, as Nick Tronti averages only 5.6 yards per attempt. However, Javion Posey took over at quarterback against UMass and is a legit dual-threat option. Posey is averaging 7.2 yards per carry on the ground but only 6.4 per pass attempt. Georgia Southern's weakness is in the secondary, so Posey may be forced to throw more than he wants to.
Georgia Southern has been incredible against the run, allowing only 3.1 yards per carry. Additionally, they rank inside the top 40 in the nation in Defensive Line Yards, Stuff Rate, and Power Success Allowed, per College Football Data.
However, Georgia Southern has a ton of injury issues to deal with on the defensive side of the ball. Ten players are either out or questionable to play against Florida Atlantic, so depth is going to be a major concern against the Owls' dynamic rushing attack.
Senior quarterback Shai Werts has been under center for Georgia Southern for what seems like 10 years, but he runs the triple option effectively. Werts is gaining 5.0 yards per carry but has struggled in the passing game, throwing for only 7.7 yards per attempt. However, Werts is questionable to play on Saturday, and if he can't go, the Eagles are going to be in big trouble.
Georgia Southern also lost star running back JD King for the rest of the season and has seven other offensive players either out or questionable for Saturday.
Florida Atlantic has been outstanding versus the run and pass, ranking inside the top 25 in both Defensive Rushing Success and Passing Success. Its strength, though, has been against the run, as it's allowing only 3.3 yards per rush attempt. This will be the first time that the Owls will be seeing the triple option in over two years, so it will be interesting to see how they match up against it.
I have Florida Atlantic projected as -3.49 favorites on the road, so I think there's plenty of value on the Owls at +2.5.
Pick: Florida Atlantic +2.5 or better
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Arizona vs. Colorado
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| Arizona Odds | +7.5 [BET NOW] |
| Colorado Odds | -7.5 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | +210 / -275 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 58 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Arizona has been horrendous on both sides of the ball. The Wildcats are one of only 11 teams in the nation to rank outside the top 100 in Expected Points Added per play on both offense and defense.
One of the biggest reasons why the offense has been so terrible is that it currently has the worst average starting field position in the nation. For an offense that ranks 112th in EPA per play, 121st in Touchdown Rate, and 116th in Sack Rate, giving it long fields every drive only makes it harder.
Quarterback Grant Gunnell is questionable for the game, and if he can’t go, true freshman Will Plummer will see the field. He filled in for Gunnell last game after he got injured and finished with a Pro Football Focus passing grade of 50.5. Gunnell is only grading at 58.0 this season, so Arizona’s quarterback situation looks bleak regardless of who is under center on Saturday.
Colorado’s defense has been one of the biggest turnarounds in the country from 2019 to 2020. After ranking 125th in Success Rate allowed a season ago, the Buffaloes sit at third in the country in that metric. Colorado’s defense also ranks ninth in EPA per play allowed and seventh in First-Down Rate allowed.
The Buffaloes also rank fourth in both Havoc rate and busted drive rate, so they should be able to dominate a terrible Arizona offensive line. Twenty-five isn’t a great number for team totals, so try to look for a 24.5 with lower juice.
Pick: Arizona team total under 25 or better
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#1 Alabama vs. LSU
by Stuckey
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| Alabama Odds | -29.5 [BET NOW] |
| LSU Odds | +29.5 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | -5000 / +1300 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 66 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
You should get an angry Alabama squad on Saturday night, looking to avenge last season's loss to eventual national champion LSU.
Expect a max effort from start to finish from the Bama defense, which is full of Louisiana kids. And this is a Tide defense that has allowed 16 total points over its past three games against SEC opponents. I don't think it’ll have any issues shutting down an LSU offense led by a freshman QB fresh off a 9-of-25, 118-yard performance with two interceptions against Texas A&M. LSU didn't even score a single point until the final drive in that game. Oh, and their best offensive player, Terrace Marshall had 10 catches for 134 yards and LSU’s only touchdown of the game. Well, he opted out this week, leaving this offense in even worse shape.
On the other side of the ball, the LSU defense has looked better of late, which I think helps this under. The Tide will get theirs, but even just forcing a punt or two — or holding Bama to a field goal or two instead of touchdowns — should get the under there. LSU has simplified things on defense and made some personnel changes at linebacker that have helped. The Tigers do still boast one of the best cornerbacks in all of college football in Derek Stingley, who's now as healthy as he's been all year.
I fully expect Bama's defense to shut down LSU's offense and not let up for 40 minutes. If the shutout is a possibility late, Saban will want it. I can already picture him getting mad if LSU gets in the end zone.
Pick: Under 67 or better
