We start the Week 13 college football slate with my four Saturday afternoon spots, includingSaturday college football predictions and picks for NCAAF Week 13.
My hope for this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 13, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 62-41-1 (60.2%)
- Overall: 161-111-2 (59.2%)
Stuckey's Saturday Afternoon College Football Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | Minnesota +12.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Kansas +3 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Northwestern +11.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Oklahoma State +3.5 |
Minnesota +12.5 vs. Penn State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
I've had this spot circled since Minnesota lost to Rutgers prior to its bye week.
I really like this Minnesota staff, especially defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman, who has his unit playing at a top-15 level nationally.
I expect a pristine game plan from the Gophers on both sides of the ball against a Penn State team that comes in a bit overvalued in the market for its second straight road game after back-to-back blowout wins over Washington (ideal matchup and spot) and lowly Purdue.
Defensively, Minnesota has enough horses up front to at least compete with Penn State's vaunted rushing attack.
I also believe it can keep its extremely underrated cornerbacks on islands against Penn State's underwhelming wide receiver room and dedicate more resources to slowing down Tyler Warren.
On the other side of the ball, Minnesota has a completely different-looking offense this season with New Hampshire transfer quarterback Max Brosmer, who has continued to improve with each passing week.
The Gophers are now extremely pass-heavy, ranking 113th in Rush Rate — just one season after ranking 13th in that category, going from 60% rush to 45%.
However, the passing attack works as almost an extension of the running game with a plethora of short-to-medium quick passes.
I think that's the best way to attack a Penn State defense that you simply can't run on. A few other opponents have had success doing just that against the Nittany Lions this season because the relative weakness of this very good stop unit is in coverage.
Brosmer also gets to work behind a plus offensive line that could get Tyler Cooper back out of the bye, which will enable the Gophers to go back to their original starting five after having to shift a few guys around the past two games.
That would certainly be helpful against Penn State's pass rush.
And again — a theme I've hammered home in this piece all season long — are we sure Penn State is as elite as some think? Tell me its most impressive win across a schedule that hasn't been overly difficult.
Plus, besides lowly Purdue, which I now have power-rated outside the top 100, Penn State's other two road league results weren't overly impressive.
It needed to storm back late from a two-touchdown deficit to beat USC in overtime (which has aged worse) and needed a pick-six to flip a close game in Madison against Wisconsin.
This offense still really lacks explosiveness, making it much more difficult to build big margins against competent defenses. And Minnesota certainly has a more-than-competent defense.
In a battle of two elite defenses and slow-paced offenses where points could come at a premium without many explosive plays, I'll take the home pup coming off of its bye week with a few matchups I like on both sides of the ball.
I actually think the Gophers will have a decent shot at pulling off this outright upset, assuming Brosmer can take care of the ball, which he's done for the most part this season.
Notable Nugget
PJ Fleck is 11-5 ATS (68.8%) when his team has 10 or more days between games, and that only includes regular-season contests. Keep in mind Fleck has also won all five bowls games he has appeared in with the Gophers.
Projection: Minnesota +10.1
Pick: Minnesota +12.5 (Play to +11.5)
| | |  |
Kansas +3 vs. Colorado
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
I've been all in on the Kansas bandwagon for weeks now, and I'm not hopping off now. This is more of a numbers play since I have these two teams power-rated very close to each other.
Both should obviously have plenty of motivation.
Colorado now controls its own destiny for a spot in the Big 12 playoff (and subsequently the College Football Playoff), while Kansas is looking to make an improbable run to bowl eligibility after starting out 1-5 due to the worst close-game luck in the country.
This is also a decent matchup for the Jayhawks.
On defense, they really struggle against opposing rush attacks, ranking in the bottom 20 nationally in both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush. However, that shouldn't hurt them too much against a pass-happy Colorado team that ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per Rush. In fact, only six teams have a higher pass rate than the Buffaloes in 2024.
Colorado's overwhelming strength lies with quarterback Shedeur Sanders and a bevy of explosive wide receiver options on the outside.
Well, that plays right into the teeth of the Kansas defense, which features the outstanding cornerback duo of Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant, who have combined for nine interceptions on the season while allowing only four total touchdowns.
Now, will Sanders still make plays through the air in this game? Of course. Colorado's offense is too good not to. Plus, Kansas does have some holes at safety, although Marvin Grant has really started to find his stride over the past month in the slot.
Regardless, Colorado will hit some explosives as it seemingly does every week, especially since Kansas doesn't generate consistent pressure.
But, at the bare minimum, having Dotson and Bryant certainly helps match up with this scary Colorado wide receiver corps.
Even if Colorado is locked in offensively from start to finish, there's no reason why Kansas can't match scores. Since coming out of the bye week, the Jayhawks have had one of the nation's top offenses.
A now 100% healthy Jalon Daniels has cut out the mistakes and has full control of a group that can beat opponents on the ground or through the air. His legs, in particular, should give this Colorado defense fits.
The bottom line is Kansas' offensive ceiling can match Colorado's ceiling if this turns into a shootout. In that case, I'd be happy to have the field goal with the home team (although with a diminished home-field advantage) and better coach/special teams.
Kansas is also the more disciplined team in terms of penalty yards per game and is better overall at finishing drives with touchdowns since it has a much more balanced attack. All of those factors could swing what should be a close game in its favor.
And while I agree this Colorado defense and offensive line have improved, who has it played?
Four of its six league wins have come against the seven Big 12 teams that are currently below .500 in conference play. The other two came against Baylor (in overtime at home thanks to a Hail Mary before the Bears really started clicking) and Texas Tech.
Those six teams have a combined 16-26 (38.1%) league record. And if you include the home loss to Kansas State, that only improves to 20-29 (40.8%).
The Buffs also benefited from the timing of when they played a number of those teams in addition to the aforementioned Baylor game:
- Off a bye against a Texas Tech team dealing with injuries and coming off an upset over Iowa State
- UCF before the Knights made the necessary QB change
- Utah the week after the Utes lost a heartbreaker to BYU and were decimated by injuries
Even Arizona had recently been crushed by injuries ahead of its matchup. Meanwhile, Kansas has gone 2-1 against three of the top four teams in the league and nearly swept all three. Among those group of teams under .500, Kansas has only played one. Its Big 12 opponents have a combined 31-18 (63.3%) record in Big 12 play.
Colorado won the scheduling lottery, while Kansas certainly did not. Give me Rock Chalk again.
Notable Nugget
For his career, Lance Leipold is 17-7-1 ATS (70.8%) as a home underdog, covering by over six points per game.
Projection: Kansas -0.4
Pick: Kansas +3 (Play to +2.5)
| | | |
Northwestern +11.5 at Michigan
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
From a scheduling perspective, this isn't the most ideal situation for Northwestern. While the Wildcats had to play Ohio State last weekend at Wrigley Field, Michigan enjoyed a bye.
However, I'm not sure how motivated Michigan will be to get to a meaningless bowl game just one year removed from winning a national title.
Its Super Bowl is next week against Ohio State, so I wouldn't be surprised if it spent a good portion of the bye week preparing for "The Game."
Conversely, I do believe getting to a bowl game is super important for Northwestern, which needs to beat Michigan and Illinois to finish 6-6.
Plus, are we sure Michigan can beat anybody by more than 10? The 5-5 Wolverines have only done it once — in their season-opener against Fresno State in a game they only led 16-10 midway through the fourth quarter.
This is still an extremely limited offense that will struggle to build margin against anybody.
Regardless of who has been under center this season, the Wolverines have obviously still leaned into their run game.
Well, that likely won't work well against Northwestern, which features a nationally elite run-stopping unit that ranks in the top 20 in both EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate.
Even without two key defenders last week against Ohio State, I thought the Wildcats fared well. Keep in mind they had three failed red-zone trips and had a punt blocked in a 7-7 game late in the first half that led to a one-yard Buckeyes touchdown drive.
That defense should be closer to full strength this week with the return of top cornerback Theran Johnson, who leads the Big Ten in passes defensed.
The Cats could also get a boost to their run defense with the return of linebacker Xander Mueller, who David Braun sounded optimistic about.
Overall, the Wildcats have a top-25 FBS defense that can keep them in this game. Their run defense is elite, and they do as good of a job as any team in the country at limiting explosive plays.
The best way to attack the Wildcats is to efficiently move the ball through the air, as they rank outside the top 100 in Pass Success Rate. Well, Michigan is simply incapable of doing that on a consistent basis with an offense that also ranks outside the top 100 in that same department offensively.
The Northwestern cornerbacks can also match up with a very underwhelming wide receiver room, allowing for more resources than usual to be dedicated to containing the Michigan running backs and tight end Colston Loveland.
Now, my main concern is how Northwestern will score. That's a very fair question, and I've thought about it way too often this week. It's not going to be easy, especially since they likely won't be able to get anything on the ground.
At least quarterback Jack Lausch has looked better of late after a midseason mini-slump.
Plus, Northwestern saw the return of wide receiver Bryce Kirtz to the lineup last week when he had seven catches for 92 yards against Ohio State. He's absolutely critical to Northwestern's offense and should make a few key plays on third downs to keep drives alive.
With that said, it's not going to be easy for Northwestern to score points, but even 7-10 might get the job done in this particular matchup between two very slow-paced teams.
Ultimately, I had to take the 11.5 here in a game with a super low total. Keep in mind there could be very impactful weather as well, which makes the double-digit underdog even more intriguing in a game where points should come at a premium.
Northwestern will likely also play this similar to the Ohio State game where it intelligently tried to shorten the game at all costs. As long as the Cats can avoid key turnovers, I like them to keep this close.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Northwestern has been one of the most profitable road underdogs with an ATS record of 43-29 (59.7%).
Also, road conference underdogs with low totals (less than 45) have gone 374-294-18 (56%) ATS over that span, including 159-113-7 (58.5%) when catching double digits.
Projection: Northwestern +9.8
Pick: Northwestern +11.5 (Play to +10.5)
Oklahoma State +3.5 vs. Texas Tech
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Who wants to back the corpse of Oklahoma State, which will amazingly play its first meaningless game (zero postseason chance) under Mike Gundy since 2005? I might be on an island with this one.
I've avoided the Pokes like the plague all season with one exception, which came after their first bye week when they got an easy cover at BYU in a game they should have won outright.
Well, I'm going back to the well following their second bye week; Gundy has gone 28-18 ATS (60.9%) with extra time to prepare.
I think this extremely veteran team will actually show up with a prideful effort in their final home game, trying to avoid a winless Big 12 campaign.
Plus, I'm not sure where Texas Tech is at mentally. The Red Raiders have already clinched bowl eligibility and were essentially eliminated from Big 12 contention in their most recent game in a loss at home vs. Colorado prior to their own second bye week.
For what it's worth, the Red Raiders got blasted by 24 at home after their first bye. Plus, they're also still pretty beat up on both sides of the ball. I could see them coming out extremely flat.
It's possible that running back Tahj Brooks just runs wild against a porous Pokes run defense that has been decimated by injuries.
However, even if that's the case, there's no reason why Oklahoma State can't keep up against a terrible Texas Tech defense I have rated in the same neighborhood as Oklahoma State's. This could easily turn into a shootout.
It was difficult to hit the submit button on this Oklahoma State team, but I have a gut feeling it shows up — and I project this under a field goal.
Notable Nugget
Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire is 0-3 ATS as the road favorite of three-plus points, failing to cover by an average of 15 points per game. The Red Raiders lost all three of those games outright.
Projection: Oklahoma State +2.8
Pick: Oklahoma State +3.5 or Better
