We continue on the Week 14 college football slate with my four Saturday afternoon and evening spots, includingSaturday college football predictions and picks for NCAAF Week 14.
My hope for this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 14, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 66-46-1 (58.9%)
- Overall: 165-116-2 (58.7%)
Stuckey's College Football Predictions for Saturday Afternoon & Night
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | Saturday, 3:30 p.m. | USC +7.5 |
  | Saturday, 3:30 p.m. | Michigan State 1H ML -115 |
  | Saturday, 7 p.m. | LSU -6 |
  | Saturday, 7:30 p.m. | Texas A&M +6 |
USC +7.5 vs. Notre Dame
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
After another dominant Notre Dame victory over Army, I think inflation has officially hit the market, getting us over a touchdown with USC at home.
From a scheduling perspective, this is also a decent spot for USC.
The Trojans have been in Los Angeles for weeks, while Notre Dame will have to travel across the country after playing in the Bronx. This will also mark Notre Dame's first true road game since way back in mid-September in West Lafayette against the corpse of Purdue.
The Irish have undoubtedly been extremely impressive after their stunning loss at home to Northern Illinois, but who have they really played over that span?
Their most impressive win came at home against Louisville in game it closed as a 6.5-point favorite. (For what it's worth, I have Louisville and USC power-rated about even.)
The Irish won that game by seven but were outgained, 395-280. The Cardinals were just done in by three turnovers (ND had three scoring drives that amassed six or fewer yards in the first half) and four failed fourth-down attempts.
Notre Dame is starting to be priced in that elite category of teams, but we've seen what has happened all year with teams near that category. The Irish still have a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 60 nationally (the Trojans are at No. 16) and have benefited from an extreme +16 turnover margin that ranks second in the nation.
If this spread stayed under a touchdown all week, I wouldn't have had a wager, but once it steamed up over the key of seven, I had to back the Trojans in a game I project around six after making official adjustments following last weekend's results.
As you'd expect with one of the best defensive staffs in college football, the Trojans defense has started to play much better in recent weeks.
They might struggle a bit to completely shut down Notre Dame's vaunted rushing attack, but I think they can bend without breaking.
Keep in mind USC should have a special teams edge as well against a Notre Dame team that really struggles in that department outside of its ability to block kicks and punts (shout out Bryce Young).
This will be a big step up in class for the Notre Dame defense. While I think the move from Miller Moss to Jayden Maiava is a slight downgrade, the difference isn't significant either way.
Plus, Maiava's mobility is probably a better fit for Lincoln Riley's offense and should be useful in this particular matchup.
This is still a very talented USC team that was catching 3.5 points at home against Penn State — which I have power-rated slightly ahead of ND — in a game it should've won.
Despite having five losses, USC is one of six teams in the country to hold a fourth quarter lead in every game this season. Notre Dame is actually one of the other five, along with Oregon, Ohio State, Boise State and UNLV.
I'd expect Riley to have a very good script and game plan here with a few wrinkles saved just for this game. USC can play completely loose and free in the spoiler role, as it also looks to exact revenge for last year's embarrassing loss in South Bend.
All of the pressure is on the Irish, but I'm most interested in that inflated price tag.
Notable Nugget
Notre Dame has not won by double digits at USC since 2000.
Projection: USC +5.9
Pick: USC +7.5 or Better
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Michigan State 1H ML -115 vs. Rutgers
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
I refer to Michigan State as the script team. Its offense has been leaps and bounds better early in the game during the scripted portion of the game, especially relative to their second-half output. The opposite holds true for Rutgers.
Against FBS teams, Michigan State averages 11.5 points in the first half compared to just a paltry 6.3 in the second half, making it one of only four teams in FBS to average fewer than a touchdown over the final 30 minutes of games.
Look no further than last week against Purdue in which it built a 24-3 halftime lead and had to hold for dear life for a 24-17 victory.
Conversely, Rutgers averages 11.8 points per first half and an even better 13.2 in the second half — which is a touch higher than the national average and almost a full touchdown more than Michigan State.
Given Michigan State's struggles in the secondary, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Rutgers mounts a second-half comeback to pull out the road win after a hopefully slow start.
Also, situationally, this is a really good spot for Michigan State, which profiles as one of the teams I think really values getting to a bowl in Jonathan Smith's first season.
I expect Sparty to come out fully motivated sitting with five wins on the season. It would certainly be an impressive feat given all of the offseason change and a gauntlet of a schedule.
Meanwhile, where is Rutgers at mentally after inexplicably blowing that game last week against Illinois? Already bowl-eligible, the Scarlet Knights could come out a bit flat here.
Plus, from a matchup perspective, Michigan State should be able to get its ground game going early on against Rutgers (121st in Success Rate), which will certainly help with the script.
Plus, the Spartans' strong run defense (16th in Success Rate) can slow down Rutgers on the ground, which is the key to slowing down the Scarlet Knight offense.
Give me the more motivated team that has played the more difficult schedule and excels early in games at home with a shot at bowl eligibility — especially with a few key matchup advantages on both sides of the ball.
Notable Nugget
As a favorite, Jonathan Smith is 18-10 ATS (64.3%) in the first half, covering by nearly four points per game
Pick: Michigan State 1H ML (-115)
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LSU -6 vs. Oklahoma
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
After an all-out effort out of the bye to upset Alabama as a two-touchdown underdog to reach bowl eligibility, how much does Oklahoma and Jackson Arnold (who ran the ball 25 times) have left in the tank for a road trip to take on LSU in Death Valley at night?
I have my doubts about a completely one-dimensional offense that simply can't throw the ball due to the injuries at wide receiver and issues in pass protection. LSU also now has enough film on the new-look Oklahoma offense after the coordinator change.
There's not much else to this one other than the fact I project this over a touchdown and I'm sure Brian Kelly wants a big win after the events surrounding the program over the past week.
You do want to attack Oklahoma through the air, which is what LSU wants to do and the Tigers have the offensive line to protect Garrett Nussmeier enough.
The Sooners also won't be able to exploit LSU's weakness in preventing explosive plays through the air.
Notable Nugget
As a home underdog or favorite of less than a touchdown, Brian Kelly is 28-11-3 (71.8%) ATS, covering by five points per game. Of over 400 coaches in our Action Labs database, he's the most profitable in that role since 2005.
Projection: LSU -8.6
Pick: LSU -6 (Play to -6.5)
Texas A&M +6 vs. Texas
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
For the final time in 2024, I will pose the question: are we sure Texas is super elite?
The Longhorns have benefited from an extremely easy league schedule that has included five of the six SEC teams with a losing record. The one team they played with a winning record (Georgia) beat them with ease in Austin.
They also played the one team sitting at .500 in league play in Florida, but the Gators started their third-string quarterback with multiple backup defensive backs in a horrible situational spot.
The Texas offense has a ton of talent, but the production just hasn't been there against top-tier defenses for the most part.
A 42% Success Rate and 4.6 yards per play against the Arkansas defense is definitely worrisome, as is a 44% Success Rate and 5.7 yards per play against Vanderbilt in their other true road game in SEC play.
Neither of those defenses has anywhere close to the talent that A&M possesses.
Even in a blowout win over Michigan, the final tally sans garbage time was only a 40% Success Rate at 5.5 yards per play.
And I didn't even mention the Georgia game where the offensive numbers were horrific.
Something just seems off, and now Quinn Ewers might be dealing with an ankle injury that could have potential lingering effects this week against a very formidable pass rush.
The A&M offense has its flaws, but I really liked what I saw last week on the road against a top-tier Auburn defense. I think it can carry some of that momentum over into this week.
Lastly, I think A&M will benefit from some of the ancillary factors at play.
The home crowd in College Station at night will be one of the best environments you'll see all season for this rivalry game.
Don't be surprised if that causes some communication issues for Texas and gets A&M some calls, specifically of the holding variety after Mike Elko brought up in his presser this week that an A&M opponent hasn't been called for holding in over 28 quarters.
I have a sneaky suspicion Texas might get called for a few drive-killing holding calls.
This is also an absolute must-win scenario for Texas A&M, while Texas is probably safe in terms of its CFP position after all of the recent chaos across college football. It's probably meaningless in such a heated rivalry, but Texas A&M might have a bit more desperation.
Lastly, don't forget about special teams, where A&M holds a distinct advantage. That could matter in a game expected to be very competitive.
Notable Nugget
As a home underdog or favorite of less than a field goal, Mike Elko is 6-1 ATS (85.7%), covering by 14.7 points per game on average.
Projection: Texas A&M +3.4
Pick: Texas A&M +6 (Play to +5.5)
