We start the Week 11 college football slate with my four Saturday afternoon spots, includingSaturday college football predictions and picks for NCAAF Week 11.
My hope for this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 11, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 44-35-1 (55.7%)
- Overall: 143-105-2 (57.7%)
Stuckey's Saturday Afternoon College Football Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | Ole Miss +3 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Kansas +3 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | North Texas +6 |
  | 4 p.m. | Texas Tech +3.5 |
Ole Miss +3 vs. Georgia
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Similar to the game above, I just don't think there's much separating these teams, which I believe is a common theme at the top this season.
Plus, from a pure desperation perspective, Ole Miss needs this game for its season, while Georgia can still make the College Football Playoff with a loss. With the new expanded field, I think you'll see more upsets in the future.
Plus, these teams look like they're headed in opposite directions.
Georgia has had just a handful of truly dominant quarters all season (some of which came in a loss) — and it's not like the games against Alabama and Clemson have aged wonderfully.
Quarterback Carson Beck seems lost at the moment, and Georgia's offensive metrics have suffered as a result, especially with an underwhelming rushing attack and a receiving corps that doesn't boast as much raw talent as we've seen in recent seasons.
The tight end room has also been an overwhelming disaster; Brock Bowers is sorely missed.
If you just look at season-long data for 2024, OIe Miss has been the superior team overall.
We will see who ends up playing for Ole Miss at wide receiver with both Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins listed as doubtful early in the week (running back Henry Parrish also won't play).
However, I think Lane Kiffin might just be using some gamesmanship with a record-setting 26-name SEC availability report.
Having both explosive wideouts would certainly help Jaxson Dart. Dart also possesses enough mobility to make Kirby Smart's defense pay with his legs — an area they've struggled with historically. Plus, this Georgia secondary isn't elite at the moment.
Believe it or not, the best statistical unit on the field will be the Ole Miss defense.
Its defensive line is the real deal and opponents can't run on the Rebels, who rank in the top 10 nationally in both EPA and Rush Success Rate. That will leave the job up to Beck, who simply can't be trusted to not make a key mistake (or two or three) right now — even against an Ole Miss back end that can be picked on at times.
For the season, Beck now has more turnover-worthy plays (13) than big-time throws (12), including a ratio of 4:0 over the past two games. Last year at this point in the season, he had twice as many big-time throws, per PFF.
Compare that to Dart, who has a 19:8 BTT-TWP ratio.
Beck has also struggled immensely under pressure with just a 36% completion percentage and seven turnover-worthy throws. He'll certainly see pressure against the Rebels, who have six defenders with at least 20 pressures for a unit that ranks No. 1 in Havoc.
Now, the same can be said for Dart — although the drop-off is nowhere near as steep.
However, that's one of my two concerns for the Rebels in this game. Will Georgia just completely overwhelm a beatable Ole Miss offensive line like we saw in Austin against a more talented front?
My other worry is Kirby Smart in a big game against Lane Kiffin, who hasn't necessarily shined under the bright lights in these spots. With that said, I'm willing to take a shot on the desperate home 'dog at a field goal or better.
Notable Nugget
Including the postseason, Kirby Smart is 29-15 ATS (65.9%) against ranked opponents, covering by nearly five points per game.
Projection: Ole Miss +1.5
Pick: Ole Miss +3 or Better (-115)
| | | |
Kansas +3 vs. Iowa State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
Kansas was arguably the unluckiest team in the country headed into its last game and then proceeded to blow a late lead on the road against in-state rival Kansas State to lose by two.
As a result, the Jayhawks are now 0-5 in one-possession games and are 1-6 against FBS teams with a -2 scoring differential. Unfathomable!
This team could easily be in the thick of the Big 12 race and have clearly shown they haven't quit on the season in their two most recent games, which I'd expect with Lance Leipold — one of the better coaches in college football for my money — at the helm.
Now, needing to win out for bowl eligibility, I'd expect a game effort out of the bye at home against a ranked Iowa State team — albeit with a reduced home-field advantage in Kansas City with plenty of cardinal and gold expected in the crowd.
While it's not ideal the Cyclones are coming off of a loss, I show enough value in the number and don't mind the matchup for Kansas.
There have been signs of cracks in Iowa State's armor all season. It needed big second-half comebacks to pull out close wins against Iowa and UCF.
The Cyclones also still have a +9 turnover margin, which definitely assisted in their red-hot start before it all came crashing down in a home loss to Texas Tech last week.
So, what do I like about the on-field matchup? Well, for starters, the Iowa State rushing offense has been underwhelming all season, which is good news for a Kansas defense that is much better against the pass.
To slow down the Cyclones, you have to contain wide receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. Well, fortunately for Kansas, it has one of the league's best cornerback duos in Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant.
Additionally, the Jayhawks boast an elite rushing attack that ranks in the top 10 nationally in both EPA and Success Rate.
They should have success in that department against an Iowa State run defense that has been exposed multiple times this season due to injuries in the second level and ranks outside the top 100 in Success Rate.
That should set up quarterback Jalon Daniels, whose play has been trending up all year, to hit a few explosives through the air.
Despite the extreme record disparity, I don't think there's that much of a gap between these two Big 12 foes.
Notable Nugget
Lance Leipold is 16-7-1 ATS (69.6%) as a home underdog.
Projection: Kansas +1.7
Pick: Kansas +3 or Better
North Texas +6 vs. Army
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
North Texas is hungry for a marquee win on homecoming day in Denton and should have a good shot of pulling off an upset over undefeated Army on Saturday.
The Mean Green will benefit greatly from a bye week, which will enable them to nurse some key injuries and prepare for Army's unique offense.
Plus, Army has major quarterback uncertainty with Bryson Daily's status in doubt. He's been nearly flawless this season but missed last week's game against lowly Air Force with a foot infection.
Head coach Jeff Monken labeled Daily's status as questionable to probable, so nobody really knows who will be under center for the Black Knights, who have a bye followed by a matchup with Notre Dame on deck.
If Daily can't go, there's a massive drop-off to backup freshman Dewayne Coleman, who threw for only 48 yards and rushed for only 2.8 yards per carry last week against the Falcons.
You could argue it's close to a touchdown drop-off between Daily and Coleman. And even if Daily does indeed get the start, there's a decent chance he's not 100% healthy as the engine of the offense.
Ultimately, I believe Army comes into this game extremely overvalued (especially with the QB uncertainty) after dominating against the spread against a comical schedule that ranks 145th in difficulty including FCS teams, per Sagarin.
For reference, North Texas has had the 90th-toughest schedule to date.
I believe this Army defense is in for a rude awakening against an explosive North Texas offense that will hopefully have running back Shane Porter available. If not, the Mean Green could be down to their fourth or fifth option.
Regardless, Chandler Morris and a host of weapons on the outside should carve up this Army secondary that has yet to be tested.
Per my latest power ratings, Army's opponents so far have an average offensive ranking outside the top 110 in the country without even including FCS Lehigh. Just take a look at this list:
- Air Force
- UAB
- Rice
- East Carolina
- Florida Atlantic
- Tulsa
- Temple
I don't have a single one of those offenses ranked inside the top 90, and four of those seven teams either started a backup quarterback or have since benched their original starter.
Despite that easy schedule, Army still ranks outside the top 80 in Success Rate against the run and pass.
Will the Black Knights be ready for a top-25 North Texas offense? I have my doubts.
Army also still has some major negative regression looming on the horizon. It has a +11 turnover margin in part due to recovering seven of its eight fumbles.
In comparison, North Texas has recovered one fumble on the entire season and has a -5 turnover margin. The same can be said for Army's good defensive fortune in the red zone and on fourth downs.
I'm buying the Mean Green off of the bye following two straight one-possession losses against Tulane and Memphis in which they outgained both opponents by more than 200 combined yards but just couldn't overcome turnovers and countless key failed fourth-down attempts.
The North Texas defense is rubbish, but it can keep up with Army, assuming Daily even plays and/or is fully healthy.
For what it's worth, if Daily gets ruled out, I'd make North Texas a favorite.
There's a chance this line does go up to 7 if Daily gets ruled in officially in which case I'd add to my position, but I'm comfortable pulling the trigger at this price even with that uncertainty.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Army has gone just 24-35-2 ATS (40.7%) as a favorite against FBS foes, including 6-18-2 ATS (25%) when laying between a field goal and a touchdown.
Projection: North Texas +3.0
Pick: North Texas +6 (Play to +4.5)
| | | |
Texas Tech +3.5 vs. Colorado
4 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
Has Colorado improved as the season has progressed? Absolutely. The run game now can at least offer some semblance of balance with an improving offensive line, and the defense has shown signs of life.
However, that doesn't mean the Buffaloes aren't overvalued in the market. I just can't get to even a field goal in Lubbock, which is one of the more underrated home-field advantages in college football.
Plus, it's not like Colorado's wins have aged like a fine wine. Arizona is way down. UCF is as well and played with the now-benched KJ Jefferson at quarterback.
It beat Baylor in overtime at home thanks to a Hail Mary as time expired in regulation and benefited from a similar play at the end of the first half at home against Cincinnati.
The Texas Tech defense has many flaws, but its metrics are a bit depressed as a result of a number of key injuries earlier this season. We'll see how healthy it is this week with a number of contributors listed as questionable.
Regardless, Colorado will move the ball through the air with chunk plays against an overmatched Texas Tech pass defense that allows far too many big plays.
However, I'm still not fully sold on this Colorado defensive renaissance. As a result, I think Behren Morton, Tahj Brooks, Josh Kelly, a deep and talented tight end room and a very good pass-blocking offensive line can keep up.
Brooks should have no issues getting going on the ground, and the Red Raiders can exploit some of Colorado's coverage issues at the linebacker and safety spots.
Morton has struggled when under natural fire, but Colorado can't really generate natural pressure without sending the blitz.
However, Morton has excelled against the blitz this season, throwing for six touchdowns to just one interception with a 75% Adjusted Completion Percentage on over 100 dropbacks.
In fairness, this isn't the best scheduling spot. While Colorado had a bye last week, Texas Tech comes off a road upset of previously undefeated Iowa State.
And while I'm certainly worried about the Texas Tech cornerbacks holding up against Shedeur Sanders and the prolific Colorado passing attack, I can't pass up this price with an offense that should have no issues matching Colorado score for score in a likely shootout.
Lastly, don't sleep on the special teams edge for Texas Tech in what should be a close game.
Notable Nugget
The Red Raiders are 17-8-1 ATS (68%) as a home dog of more than a field goal since 2005. Over that same span, Colorado is the least-profitable road team at 37-64-1 ATS (36.6%).
Projection: Texas Tech +2.2
Pick: Texas Tech +3.5 or Better
