We start the Week 12 college football slate with my four Saturday afternoon spots, includingSaturday college football predictions and picks for NCAAF Week 12.
My hope for this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 12, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 53-39-1 (57.6%)
- Overall: 152-109-2 (58.2%)
Stuckey's Saturday Afternoon College Football Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | Air Force +4.5 |
  | 4 p.m. | Baylor -1.5 |
  | 4 p.m. | Old Dominion +4.5 |
Air Force +4.5 at Oregon State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
I'm fading this Oregon State team until further notice. The Beavers have lost four straight (two as a favorite) and have issues on both sides of the ball.
I'm not sure where this team is at mentally, which is not ideal during a week when full attention will be required to prepare for a unique offense.
Let's start with the offense. The Beavers recently turned to quarterback Ben Gulbranson, who just isn't a fit for offensive coordinator Ryan Gunderson's offense, which operates at its best with a dual-threat under center.
Gulbranson came to Corvallis as a pro-style signal-caller, which fit what previous head coach Jonathan Smith wanted to do.
The rushing attack was the strength of the team but now becomes less efficient with Gulbranson running the show.
The Beavers still have a very good offensive line, but they really miss Jam Griffin (who remains sidelined with an injury), resulting in an increased workload for Anthony Hankerson, who has started to wear down as a result.
Plus, the Air Force defense is much stronger against the run than pass. There's only so many times Oregon State can target wide receiver Trent Walker on the outside.
While the offense continues to trend down as it deals with an identity crisis and a new quarterback who doesn't really fit schematically, the defense has been porous all season, especially against the run.
On the season, the Beavers rank outside the top 130 nationally in Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush allowed. They are one of only 10 teams in the country allowing more than 5.5 yards per carry.
Well, that's obviously problematic against Air Force's triple option.
Last week, Air Force ran it a whopping 80 times en route to an upset victory over Fresno State. It can follow that same formula this week by just churning three-to-four yards at a time against a defense that only has 32 tackles for loss on the season. For reference, only Georgia State and Temple have fewer.
The Falcons are a bad football team, but they at least now have the best option under center for running the triple. They also appear to definitely be trending up after a complete roster reset in the offseason, while the opposite holds true for the sinking Beavers.
Notable Nugget
Since 2010, Air Force has only been a home dog in the month of November five times under head coach Troy Calhoun. It won all five outright, including last week's upset of Fresno State as a double-digit underdog.
Projection: Air Force +3
Pick: Air Force +4.5 (Play to +4)
| | |
Baylor -1.5 at West Virginia
4 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
I'm not sure many realize how well Baylor is playing of late. After a blowout loss at Iowa State, the Bears have won three straight and will come in fresh off the bye week for their trip to Morgantown.
Keep in mind that their two losses prior to Iowa State came against the two teams sitting atop the Big 12 standings in Colorado and BYU — both by one possession with the former coming in overtime after the Buffaloes completed a Hail Mary as time expired to end regulation.
Meanwhile, the Mountaineers will return home after a grueling two-game road trip that saw them win back-to-back one-possession games against a reeling Arizona team and Cincinnati.
While impressive on the surface, the 'Neers had no business winning last week in Cincinnati. They simply benefited from extreme turnover luck in a game they finished with 15 fewer first downs and under 250 total yards of offense. Just take a look at how they scored:
- Absolutely gifted pick-six
- 31-yard FG drive following a Cincy fumble
- 41-yard TD drive after a big punt return
- 51-yard TD drive
- Fumble return for a TD
That's 31 points on drives that totaled 123 yards. Talk about getting lucky!
More importantly, this is a favorable matchup for Baylor.
Regardless of who's under center between Nicco Marchiol (who has started the past two games) and Garrett Greene, West Virginia is a run-first offense. Everything flows from the ground game.
Well, that plays right into the strength of Baylor's defense, which ranks in the top 10 nationally in Rush Success Rate and has allowed only 3.8 yards per attempt in 2024.
The Baylor secondary can be attacked a bit, but its metrics are certainly impacted by a number of injuries earlier this season. The Bears should come into this one fully healthy on the back end and can hold their own against a fairly underwhelming Mountaineer passing attack that's also dealing with wide receiver injuries.
On the other side of the ball, Baylor's season-long rushing metrics aren't stellar, but it's been much better since making a change at left tackle and with the recent emergence of freshman back Bryson Washington. While the Bears have had more balance of late, WVU's stout run defense will certainly make things difficult in the trenches.
However, quarterback Sawyer Robertson and company can fully exploit a horrid West Virginia secondary that ranks 130th in coverage, per PFF, and 133rd in EPA per Pass.
There's no reason why Baylor shouldn't move the ball efficiently through the air all afternoon.
For what it's worth, from a pure net yards per play perspective sans garbage time, Baylor ranks 46th at +0.55, while West Virginia is at 77th (-0.25) with a relatively similar strength of schedule.
I don't show a ton of value in the Bears from a power ratings perspective, but I like anything under a field goal based on the spot and matchup against a Mountaineers team that would be 0-4 straight up in Morgantown against FBS teams this season if not for a miraculous comeback victory over Kansas.
Notable Nugget
Neal Brown is just 6-12 ATS (33.3%) as a home underdog, including 0-3 against the number this season.
Projection: Baylor -3.0
Pick: Baylor -1.5 (Play to -2.5)
| | |
Old Dominion +4.5 vs. James Madison
4 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
As far as preseason takes are concerned, I whiffed harder on Old Dominion than any other team. Its under 4.5 wins was one of my favorite win totals. While it still technically has life, that was the wrong call.
The Monarchs have been much better than I expected, especially since Colton Joseph took over at quarterback.
Four of their five losses have come by one possession, including an early season eye-opening performance at South Carolina in a four-point defeat. They also have a very impressive road win at Bowling Green.
The offensive line is still really poor, but the scheme under offensive coordinator Kevin Decker more than makes up for those deficiencies up front.
Decker and JMU head coach Bob Chesney have plenty of familiarity with each other from their Patriot League battles between 2019-22, which might actually provide Old Dominion with an edge since the Monarchs will be coming off a bye before a matchup I'm sure they've had circled since losing in heartbreaking fashion last year on the road against a then-undefeated Dukes squad.
This also looks like a good time to fade the Dukes after two blowout wins against two very bad teams in Southern Miss and Georgia State in one of the best situational spots of the season that I can't believe I missed last week.
While the Dukes were coming off of a bye, Georgia State was playing its fourth straight road game. You don't see that too often.
Meanwhile, Old Dominion lost its most recent game at Appalachian State despite finishing with nearly 500 yards of total offense (+98 net) primarily due to a -3 turnover margin.
I think the market perception of JMU is a bit inflated due to a few of those blowout wins this season, but its in-conference results on the road have been very underwhelming with a pair of outright losses as favorites against UL Monroe and Georgia Southern in which it scored 33 combined points.
The Dukes have also benefited from an absurd +18 turnover margin, which leads all of FBS. There's certainly some looming turnover regression on the horizon. In comparison, ODU sits at -2 on the season.
Plus, the Monarchs' run defense is very stout, which is the key to slowing down a JMU offensive attack that doesn't have a consistent enough passing attack to exploit the ODU back end.
While Alonza Barnett's numbers look great on the surface (21 touchdowns and three interceptions), he's really regressed since a hot start, as teams have tape on him and this offense.
Through his first four games, he had 11 Big-Time Throws to just three Turnover-Worthy Plays, but he's put up just a 1:1 ratio (6:6) since through five league games.
The JMU defense definitely has teeth, but it has really benefited from that aforementioned schedule and turnover luck. Plus, I think the best way to attack this unit is to spread it out, which ODU does as much as any team in the country.
For two years in a row, the Monarchs have done nothing but play close games with 17 of their 22 contests decided by one possession. This one should be no different in a matchup between two teams that have a minuscule chance of getting to the Sun Belt title game.
If anything, I'd give the motivation edge to ODU, which needs to win two of its final three games to get back to a bowl.
While the records might indicate a big gap between these two clubs, I don't really see it. Keep in mind Old Dominion has had a significantly more difficult schedule (70th vs. 129th).
Notable Nugget
ODU head coach Ricky Rahne is 22-12 ATS (64.7%) as an underdog, covering by 5.5 points per game.
That includes an impressive 15-6 ATS (71.4%) mark in league play, including 10 outright upsets in 21 tries with an average spread of +8.5.
Projection: Old Dominion +2.5
Pick: Old Dominion +4.5 (Play to +3.5)
