We continue the Week 9 college football slate with my five Saturday afternoon spots, including Saturday NCAAF predictions and picks for October 26.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 9, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 34-28-1 (54.8%)
- Overall: 133-98-2 (57.6%)
NCAAF Predictions, Picks for Week 9
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | Oregon -21 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | UCF +1 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Akron +3.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Bowling Green +3.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Kent State +17.5 |
Oregon -21 vs. Illinois
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
Let's start out with a little market overview. Michigan closed as a six-point favorite at Illinois last week, implying the Wolverines would be a double-digit home favorite against the Illini.
For reference, I would currently make Oregon a 23-point favorite over the Wolverines on a neutral field.
While I didn't agree with that massive market movement last weekend in a game the Illini ended up winning by two touchdowns, I think we're getting the Ducks at a pretty cheap price, especially if a -21 ever pops, which is what I'm waiting on.
Keep in mind Michigan's anemic offense did have more total yards but finished with a -3 turnover margin and a missed field goal. It had success moving the ball.
Even going back a few weeks, I played Penn State -17 against Illinois in a game that closed -18, and I have Oregon rated about six points better than Penn State on a neutral field.
While the Illini did end up covering that spread in a 14-point loss, it was a very misleading final score. After a 75-yard touchdown drive to open the game, Illinois did nothing the rest of the game, amassing a grand total of 144 yards.
However, it maintained relative contact due to a pair of missed 40-yard field goals by Penn State and a fourth-and-short stop in the red zone.
Both teams also have a common opponent in Purdue.
While Oregon beat the Boilermakers, 35-0, in West Lafayette on a short week following its huge win over Ohio State, Illinois needed overtime at home to prevail, 50-49, after Purdue failed on a potential game-winning two-point conversion attempt.
Bottom line, I believe Illinois is significantly overrated in the market right now.
Its other marquee wins against Nebraska (in overtime) and Kansas (outplayed but benefited from extreme turnover luck) also haven't aged particularly well.
From a matchup perspective, Illinois can't run the ball, ranking 85th in Rushing Success Rate, and now lost Kaden Feagin to injury. That's extremely problematic against Oregon.
While the Ducks have been particularly vulnerable to explosive runs, ranking outside the top 100 in EPA per Rush, their secondary has been nails all season.
That's the key to slowing down the Illini, who are led by a dynamic duo at receiver in Zakhari Franklin and Pat Bryant.
And while Luke Altmyer has played better overall this season, he has 15 touchdowns to just one interception despite a 1:1 ratio of Big-Time Throws to Turnover-Worthy Plays (9:9).
For reference, he threw 10 interceptions with the same number of Turnover-Worthy Plays last season. The turnover regression is coming for the Illini, who currently have a +7 margin — tied for 11th in the country.
On the other side of the ball, Oregon should have no issues getting its rushing attack going with a substantial edge at the line of scrimmage against a very underwhelming Illinois defensive line that's generating almost no Havoc and is getting pushed around on a consistent basis.
Running back Jordan James should have a big day, which will open up everything else for Dillon Gabriel and company, who will benefit from playing in Eugene with an extra day of rest and preparation. After struggling early in the season, this Oregon offense is now firing on all cylinders, primarily due to the improvements along the offensive line and Gabriel getting more comfortable in a new scheme.
I do worry a bit about Oregon's propensity to go into a shell in the second half with big leads this season, so I may add some first-half here as well, but they did pack it in during two road games and one at home the week before Ohio State, which makes some sense. While the Ducks don't really have incentive to build big margins the rest of the way, this is still a home game against a ranked opponent. Plus, the Illinois defensive line could really start to wear down as this game progresses.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, in matchups between ranked teams, favorites of 14-plus have gone 76-53-1 ATS (58.9%), covering by 3.5 points per game, including 16-6 ATS (72.7%) when favored by at least three touchdowns.
Projection: Oregon -24.3
Pick: Oregon -21 (-120) or Better
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UCF +1 vs. BYU
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
The 7-0 Cougars have to be toward the top of the list of 2024 college football surprises in a season that has had many.
With that said, I'm not fully buying into this BYU team that has benefited from as much turnover luck as any team in the country.
It's gone 3-0 in one-possession games and probably should've lost at home against a beat-up Oklahoma State team last week, especially if Garret Rangel and Ollie Gordon II don't get hurt.
Even the blowout wins on the surface were extremely misleading with the two most obvious examples coming against Arizona and Kansas State.
The Cougars won those games by a combined 52 points despite being outgained, 656-630, thanks to a +6 turnover margin, 1-for-7 opponent fourth-down conversion rate and multiple non-offensive scores.
That's simply not sustainable.
Speaking of unsustainable, quarterback Jake Retzlaff continues to put the ball in harm's way too frequently, which will eventually come back to bite him harder than it has to date for an offense that grades out below the national average in both Passing and Rushing Success Rate. I'd expect a critical mistake or two, especially since UCF's stout run defense will likely put the Cougars in many known passing situations.
However, the biggest mismatch for me comes on the other side of the ball.
UCF features one of the best rushing attacks in the country (top five in both EPA and Success Rate), which should cause major problems for a BYU defense that has really struggled to defend opposing ground games.
That's especially true when it comes to opponents with mobile quarterbacks, which the Knights certainly have with new starter Jacurri Brown, who ran for 154 yards last week against Iowa State.
Similar to what we saw from Rangel and Gordon before going down with injuries, Brown and RJ Harvey should pose major problems for a BYU defense that really struggles to set the edge.
I came away very impressed with UCF's effort in Ames last week in a game it arguably should have won.
Looking back, its three losses prior to that have aged much better than they looked at the time with Florida, Colorado and Cincinnati all trending up.
And keep in mind those all came before UCF made the official quarterback change, which I believe makes this team much more dangerous with Gus Malzahn now being able to run his ideal offense.
Give me the Knights in the Bounce House, where they have historically thrived in these exact spots.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, UCF is 9-3 ATS (75%) at home against ranked competition, including 7-0 with a single-digit spread.
Projection: UCF -3
Pick: UCF -1 or Better
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Akron +3.5 vs. Eastern Michigan
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
You have to hand it to EMU head coach Chris Creighton, who seems to squeeze the most possible juice out of his teams in Ypsilanti every single season.
His teams just don't beat themselves and usually win all of the battles on the margins when it comes to special teams, penalties and turnovers.
Not surprisingly, he's doing so once again in 2024 with a number of nail-biting wins against one of the easiest schedules in the country to date. Just take a look at the Eagles' wins:
- at UMass
- vs. Jacksonville State (by three in double overtime)
- vs. St. Francis
- at Kent State
- vs. Central Michigan (by four)
That last win over the Chips — who were down to their third-string quarterback — also came after the Eagles trailed by 18 in the fourth quarter.
Winning close games can also be aided by fourth-down variance, and it has certainly helped that EMU's opponents have converted on only 18% of their fourth-down attempts, which leads the nation. Indiana and Tulane — two other teams I'm fading this week — are the only other defenses that have allowed a conversion rate of less than 25%.
If you include FCS teams, EMU has a strength of schedule that ranks 147th, per Sagarin.
In comparison, Akron has had a significantly tougher strength of schedule that ranks right around the national average with nonconference road games at South Carolina, Rutgers and Ohio State.
That strength of schedule disparity is a part of this spot in addition to the fact that the Zips will be coming off a much-needed bye after playing seven straight weeks that started off with the brutal nonconference slate.
They needed the break to rest and heal up badly and will now catch the Eagles in a potentially sleepy spot after that thrilling win with Toledo on deck.
However, even before the bye week, Akron was playing much better football against teams in its own weight class, and it still has one of the more underrated defenses in the conference.
The Zips sit at 0-3 in the MAC standings but were within one possession in the fourth quarter in each despite a fairly difficult slate to kick off league play with a home game against Bowling Green sandwiched in between two roadies against Ohio and Western Michigan.
Unlike Eastern Michigan, Akron has been cursed in close games over the past two seasons.
It probably wouldn't shock you to hear EMU beat an undermanned Akron team by three in double-overtime last year during a 2023 campaign in which the Zips went 0-3 in overtime.
I think that bad fortune finally flips for the Zips in this spot and they pick up their first MAC win of the season.
Notable Nugget
Chris Creighton is always worth a look when catching points but is just 12-17 ATS (41.4%) as a favorite in league play.
Projection: Akron +1.5
Pick: Akron +3 or Better
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Bowling Green +3.5 at Toledo
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Although certainly not by a wide margin, I still have Bowling Green power-rated as the best team in the MAC. Therefore, I had to take the Falcons catching over a field goal in the Battle of I-75.
I've been lower than the market on the Rockets all season. Now, they do have an impressive league win over Miami (OH), but that game was pretty even statistically with Toledo finding itself in a great situational spot looking to exact MAC Championship revenge.
I haven't been overwhelmed by its other two league results. The Rockets got smashed at Buffalo and then beat Northern Illinois in a battle of backup quarterbacks last week by a touchdown.
In that game, the Huskies scored only six points despite running 90 plays for close to 400 yards even with no turnovers. What was the main culprit? Going 2-for-8 on fourth down.
Bowling Green lost to that same Northern Illinois team but actually led, 7-6, in the second half before starting quarterback Connor Bazelak left with an injury, forcing the Falcons to turn to their third-string QB since backup Camden Orth remains sidelined with an injury.
They ended up giving up 11 straight points in the fourth quarter to lose by 10 in a game where they missed two field goals and had a -2 turnover margin.
Their other three losses all came by one possession, including a pair on the road against two P4 teams that may make the College Football Playoff.
- by 6 at Texas A&M
- by 7 at Penn State
- by 3 vs. Old Dominion
This team has been in position to win every game in the fourth quarter but has come up short four times. The Falcons are certainly battle-tested in hostile environments, so making the short trip up to the Glass Bowl shouldn't be an issue.
From a matchup perspective, Bowling Green's defense matches up well against a Toledo offense that simply can't run the ball, ranking in the bottom 10 nationally in both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush.
While Bowling Green's aggressive front has allowed too many rush explosives, Toledo has been one of the least explosive rushing offenses in the country.
The Rockets do have a very talented group of pass-catchers, who are asked to do everything for their one-dimensional offense that gets wildly inconsistent quarterback play with Tucker Gleason (who's questionable after missing last game with an injury).
That might not be as easy against a stingy BG secondary, led by Jordan Oladokun, that ranks third in the country in Pass Success Rate.
On the other side of the ball, Bowling Green will have the best player on the field in the unguardable hybrid tight end Harold Fannin Jr., who will eventually play on Sundays.
And while Toledo still has lingering question marks at quarterback, Bazelak returned from his injury last week and threw for over 300 yards.
I trust Bowling Green to have more success on the ground than Toledo, which will be forced to completely rely on hitting explosive plays through the air on known passing downs against an aggressive front with a top-notch cover unit on the back end.
Give me the road Falcons against their rival in a game I'm sure the seniors have had circled since blowing a double-digit fourth-quarter lead in a one-point home loss last season.
Notable Nugget
Following a victory, Jason Candle is just 17-25-1 ATS (40.5%) in league play, failing to cover by over four points per game on average.
Projection: Bowling Green +1.1
Pick: Bowling Green +3 or Better
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Kent State +17.5 at Western Michigan
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Believe it or not, the Broncos are the lone remaining undefeated team in the MAC prior to even reaching the month of November.
However, it has not been easy for the Broncos despite an extremely favorable schedule to kick off league play.
They had to come from behind in the fourth quarter to beat Ball State by a score of 45-42 and beat Akron by only 10 in a game where the Zips outplayed them but couldn't overcome a pair of missed field goals and a -4 turnover margin.
The Broncos then held on for a wild 48-41 win at Buffalo last week in a game I backed them in but felt fortunate to get the cover.
Those are three close wins against teams not expected to compete for a wide-open MAC title.
Even more concerning is the fact that the defense allowed those three limited offenses to gain 551, 501 and 397 yards. In fact, the Broncos have been outgained in their three MAC wins 1,449-1,337 (-112) but have benefited from a +6 turnover margin of 8-2.
Western Michigan undoubtedly has one of the league's best offenses, especially since it's now fully healthy after dealing with injuries to a number of key pieces early on in the season.
However, the defense remains a major problem area, ranking 130th in Success Rate.
I won't sit here and wax poetic about Kent State. The Golden Flashes are a bad football team that's now down to their third-string quarterback.
However, they have skill-position talent at wide receiver and put up 33 and 35 points against a pair of other bad MAC defenses in Eastern Michigan and Ball State, respectively, with new quarterback Tommy Ulatowski throwing for over 700 combined yards in those two losses.
They can score enough to cover this number or get in the backdoor if necessary.
It's also not a great situational spot for Western Michigan, which comes home after that thrilling victory over Buffalo with huge MAC games against Bowling Green and Northern Illinois on deck.
That makes this a bit of a sleepy spot against winless Kent State, which seems to still be fighting hard for its first win of the season.
I'm selling high on the Broncos, who just don't have a defense you can trust as a big favorite.
Projection: Kent State +15.1
Pick: Kent State +17 or Better
Notable Nugget
Over the past 10 seasons, MAC home favorites in league play have gone just 112-154-3 ATS (42.1%).
Projection: Kent State +15.1
Pick: Kent State +17 or Better
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