Georgia vs. Alabama Odds
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | -255 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | +205 |
SEC Championship
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 3 Alabama
We are three games away from witnessing one of the most impressive defensive season long performances of all time. Georgia came into this year with national-title aspirations, and this may be the year they finally get over the hump.
Constantly getting thwarted by Alabama, the Bulldogs now have a legit shot to knock the Tide out of the playoffs en route to the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. Alabama opened as a 6.5-point underdog, which is rare for a program known for winning.
Georgia has been the clear-cut favorite nationally all season. Backed by a consistently great defensive performance each week, the Bulldogs have been swallowing opposing offenses all season. That defense will be tested by an Alabama offense that comes in as one of the best passing units in football. Led by potential Heisman winner Bryce Young, ‘Bama will look to play spoiler to Georgia and keep their playoff hopes alive.
Alabama comes into this game 11-1, but don’t let that record fool you. It has been a roller coaster of a season for the Crimson Tide.
Coming out hot in their first game against Miami, things took a turn for the worse as they started to barely survive close ones. Florida, LSU, Arkansas and Auburn all took them to the very end. Only Texas A&M was able to seal the upset.
Alabama’s offense has looked flat at times with only the pass game being able to consistently generate any sort of production. The Tide ended the season below average in Rush Success, which is rare for that program.
The defense has been good to average, with a glaring weakness in Def. Finishing Drives. This will be a cause for concern if Georgia is able to move the ball past the 40-yard line with its playmakers in the open field.
With playoff hopes on the line for Alabama as the rare underdog, this is shaping to be an exciting SEC showdown for our mid-day viewing pleasure.
Georgia vs. Alabama Spread
Georgia -6.5 |
| 6 Picks |
Alabama +6.5 |
| 6 Picks |
It’s easy to put too much stock into what we just saw in a team’s most recent outing — and for Alabama’s case, what we saw was a terrible day in the passing game against Auburn. Young completed only 49% of his passes for 6.1 yards per attempt against the Tigers. We had seen the ground game struggle from time to time, but the aerial attack struggling against an Auburn defense that ended the regular season ranked 78th in passing success rate allowed was definitely surprising.
You can put some of the blame on Young for the passing game’s awful showing against Auburn, but he wasn’t helped at all by an offensive line that allowed 19 pressures and five sacks, or from losing top receiver Jameson Williams early in the game due to a targeting penalty. The incredibly explosive Williams will be back for this contest, though. He leads the country in receptions of 50 or more yards and the SEC in both receiving yards and touchdowns.
While Alabama has what it takes to put pressure on the Georgia secondary with Williams and fellow receiver John Metchie, the offensive line is a major red flag against one of the most dominant defensive fronts in recent college football history. To date, the Tide rank 75th in pressure rate allowed and 63rd in Pro Football Focus’ run blocking grade.
It’s hard to say anything that hasn’t already been said about this Georgia defense, which leads the country in expected points added (EPA) per play, success rate and points per drive. There are studs everywhere you look on this unit, but none have been better than linebacker Nakobe Dean, who leads all linebackers with a 91.6 PFF grade with five sacks while allowing a grand total of 61 yards in coverage on 26 targets.
On the other side of the ball, it’ll be a strength vs. strength on the ground between Georgia and Alabama. The Tide enter this one ranked fourth in EPA allowed per rush, with the Dawgs ranked ninth in PFF’s rushing grade.
There haven’t been many teams better in the passing game than Georgia from a per-play perspective, but the workload has also been light for quarterback Stetson Bennett since the Bulldogs have usually been able to comfortably salt games away on the ground. Bennett’s highest single-game value was just 29 attempts vs. Tennessee, and he’s averaging just 16.6 attempts per game on the year. The way to attack Alabama this season has been through the air, though, so Bennett’s workload could definitely see an increase against a vulnerable secondary for the Tide.
Our staff is almost split down the middle on against-the-spread leans for this one, with seven favoring the Tide catching nearly a touchdown, while five prefer Georgia giving the points.
Georgia vs. Alabama Over/Under
 Over 49.5 |
| 6 Picks |
 Under 49.5 |
| 6 Picks |
Our staff is torn on the total angle for the SEC Championship Game with an even 6-6 split. On the surface, the under seems like the no-brainer play, but I see why people would want to play the over.
The first angle that comes to mind is clearly Georgia’s elite defense and the under. That inclination makes sense given that the Bulldog’s defense has been extraordinary all season. A starting unit loaded with five-star recruits finished the season first nationally in scoring defense by giving up just 6.9 points per game. The most points Georgia gave up was 17 against Tennessee in Week 11. The last time we saw a defense of this caliber was the 2011 Alabama Crimson Tide with Kirby Smart as the defensive coordinator. That team only gave up 8.2 points per game.
Alabama by no means has a slouchy defense either. While they may not be historically elite, the Tide is the 20th-ranked scoring defense, giving up 19.9 points per game. The Crimson Tide are very good in their own right, but they have not dominated SEC conference play the way Georgia has. The Tide allowed 29 points in a nail biter against Florida, 35 points in a win over Arkansas and 22 points in a four-overtime win against Auburn. For the sake of comparison, when Georgia faced the same teams, they allowed a combined 17 points.
The less intuitive angle, but what I believe is the right angle for this game, would be to play the over based both teams’ offensive potential.
Lost in the mix of the attention that the Georgia defense gets, the Bulldogs offense has been a juggernaut this season. Georgia ranks sixth in the country in scoring offense at 40.7 points per game. The Georgia backfield, led by junior Zamir White, is a force to reckon with. The backfield has combined for 2,571 yards gained, 5,4 yards per attempt and 28 touchdowns this season. Bennett has been very efficient this season, completing 65% of his passes for 1,985 yards, 21 touchdowns and just five interceptions.
Alabama has been its usual self on offense this season, ranking fifth nationally in scoring offense with 42.7 points per game. Young is the Heisman front runner at most sportsbooks coming into this game after completing 68.8% of his passes for 3,901 yards, 40 touchdowns and just four interceptions.
Both teams finish the regular in the top six nationally in scoring offense and Alabama has been gouged on defense a variety of times this season. I have projected the total for this game at 56.7 points with the lean to the over being driven by Alabama’s offensive explosiveness, Georgia’s offensive success rate coupled with Alabama’s defensive success rate.
I recommend nothing more than a one unit bet on the total in this game given how torn the Action staff is. I have a penchant toward the over, given both teams ability to scorn and Alabama’s susceptibility to giving up large point totals this season.
Play the over at 50 or lower.
