There are teams that are bad and there are teams that are bad against the spread.
Rarely do we have teams that are just as bad at both.
But the New Mexico Lobos are a historic combination.
In the last three years, the Lobos have only won 23% of games (6 of 26), but they’ve also covered an FBS worst 13.6% of their games that had spreads (3-19-1).
So if you’re going to play them, fade them. It’s nearly automatic, right?
And yet, according to the Action Network's proprietary betting data, the sharps love the Lobos this weekend against their arch rival New Mexico State in the Rio Grande rivalry.
Although bets are split 50/50, New Mexico has an astounding 91% of the money as a 1-point favorite. That indicates that a handful of sharp bettors are piling in big money on New Mexico to cover.
New Mexico's normally inept offense has been jumpstarted by two transfers from UAB — quarterback Dylan Hopkins and running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Hopkins threw for four touchdowns in the win over Tennessee Tech, while Croskey-Merritt ran for 163 yards on the ground.
That seems to be enough for the sharps to overcome trends.
This is only the fifth time in the last three years that New Mexico has been favored in a game. In typical fashion, they haven’t covered or won any of them.
Sure, they’re coming off an easy cover last week. As a 16.5-point favorite, they won by 46 over Tennessee Tech.
The week before? Classic New Mexico.
Texas A&M, for most of the week, was 38.5 point favorites over the Lobos.
Until an end-of-the-game garbage field goal, the Aggies were up by 39.
New Mexico has actually won 7 of 10 matchups in the rivalry, which began in 1894. New Mexico State coach Jerry Kill, who has missed time in the profession due to health issues, has his status up in the air for Saturday’s game.
