The SMU Mustangs (4-1) will head to Kentucky to take on the Louisville Cardinals (3-1) in their second ACC game in program history. This NCAAF matchup is set to take place at 12:00 p.m. ET in L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium and will air on ESPN this Saturday.
Louisville is a 7-point home favorite over SMU in a game with an over/under of 56.5. Both teams have just one loss this season and will be looking to fight toward the ACC Championship game with a win in this matchup.
Let’s dive into my SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals predictions and NCAAF picks for Saturday, October 5.
SMU vs Louisville Prediction
- SMU vs. Louisville Pick: Louisville -7 (-108)
My Louisville vs SMU best bet is on the Cardinals to cover the spread (-7), with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
SMU vs Louisville Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -112 | 56.5 -110 / -110 | +210 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -108 | 56.5 -110 / -110 | -260 |
- SMU vs Louisville Point Spread: SMU +7 (-112) · Louisville -7 (-108)
- SMU vs Louisville Total: Over/Under 56.5
- SMU vs Louisville Moneyline: SMU +210 · Louisville -260
SMU vs Louisville Preview
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview: Contenders or Pretenders?
After a relatively slow start to the season, SMU now sits at 4-1 and appears to be a contender for the conference title game in its first ACC season. The Mustangs have flashed on offense over the last couple of weeks, putting up 66 against TCU and 42 against Florida State.
This improvement on offense comes after making a change at quarterback from Preston Stone to Kevin Jennings. Jennings is averaging 0.21 EPA per dropback this season and a 43% passing success rate compared to -0.01 and 36% in these two figures for Stone.
It’s been the Mustangs’ rushing offense that they have leaned heavily on, though. SMU ranks 42nd in overall rush rate, 61st in Rush Success Rate, and 54th in rushing PPA. Through the air, they rank 84th in Pass Success Rate and 69th in passing PPA.
The SMU defense has been mostly solid to this point. They rank 15th in Success Rate allowed and 42nd in Defensive Finishing Drives. They also rank 33rd in Havoc rate generated, sixth in PFF's Rush Defense grades, and 34th in PFF's Pass Rush grades.
The Mustangs rank 35th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 11th in Rush PPA allowed. The pass defense has also been strong, ranking 10th in Pass Success Rate allowed, 41st in Pass PPA allowed, and 37th in PFF's Coverage grade. Their main weakness on this side of the ball has been allowing big plays through the air, as they rank 122nd in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview: Tyler Shough Continues to Impress
Tyler Shough has been a major addition to this Louisville offense at quarterback. The former Texas Tech signal-caller has been great this season for the Cardinals, throwing for 1,114 yards, 11 touchdowns and one interception. He has also only been sacked four times and is averaging 0.35 EPA per dropback this season.
Louisville’s offense ranks sixth in Success Rate, 20th in Finishing Drives, and eighth in Havoc Allowed. They pass the ball 53% of the time and rank 17th in Pass Success Rate and 26th in Passing PPA. They are also second in both Rush Success Rate and rushing PPA, as well as 13th in Rush Explosiveness.
Defensively, the Cardinals rank eighth in Success Rate allowed, 47th in Havoc, and 70th in Finishing Drives. They rank third in PFF's Rush Defense grades and eighth in PFF's Pass Rush grades but 71st in PFF's Tackling grades and 90th in PFF's Coverage grades.
Louisville ranks 27th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 26th in Pass PPA allowed. On the ground, they rank sixth in Rush Success Rate allowed and 31st in Rush PPA allowed, but just 120th in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
SMU vs Louisville
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how SMU and Louisville match up statistically:
SMU Offense vs. Louisville Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 46 | 4 | |
| Line Yards | 54 | 19 | |
| Pass Success | 85 | 72 | |
| Havoc | 53 | 64 | |
| Finishing Drives | 42 | 89 | |
| Quality Drives | 31 | 15 | |
Louisville Offense vs. SMU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 23 | 20 |  |
| Line Yards | 60 | 26 | |
| Pass Success | 45 | 60 | |
| Havoc | 14 | 40 | |
| Finishing Drives | 30 | 43 | |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 27 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 83 | 72 |
| PFF Coverage | 39 | 91 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 67 | 100 |
| Middle 8 | 37 | 78 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.7 (38) | 30.0 (123) |
| Rush Rate | 61% (27) | 49% (94) |
SMU vs Louisville Pick & Prediction
This is a tough matchup to handicap at this point of the season as we haven’t seen much from either of these teams, but they both do appear to be ACC title contenders.
Louisville’s offense has been unstoppable for much of the year, with its best competition being a Notre Dame defense, which should be better than what they will see this weekend.
SMU’s offense has been effective over the last few weeks, but I don’t think it’s quite as good as Louisville’s.
Overall, I’m most confident in Louisville in this game and am looking to back the Cardinals as home favorites. I don’t want to take the Cardinals by more than a touchdown. But at -7, I think they are a good bet to make as the superior team.
Pick: Louisville -7 (-110)
How to Watch SMU vs Louisville Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
SMU vs Louisville Betting Trends
- 56% of bets and 40% of the money are on SMU to cover the spread.
- 62% of bets and 80% of the money are on the over.
