The SMU Mustangs and Nevada Wolf Pack open up their seasons in Reno as one of only two FBS vs. FBS matchups in Week 0. That gives us a perfect opportunity to make SMU vs. Nevada predictions for Saturday's college football clash.
SMU vs Nevada Prediction
- SMU vs. Nevada Pick: SMU 1H -13.5
My SMU vs. Nevada best bet is on the Mustangs to cover the first-half spread of 13.5, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
SMU makes the transition from the American Athletic Conference to the ACC with a lot of hype coming into the season. This is head coach Rhett Lashlee's third year with the Mustangs, and he's coming off an 11-3 season and an AAC title.
SMU returns a lot of key players on both sides of the ball and looks poised to make some real noise in its first ACC season. That could put value on the Mustangs early.
Nevada, meanwhile, is going through wholesale changes with its program, including Jeff Choate taking over as head coach.
Choate spent the last two seasons as the co-defensive coordinator and linebackers coach at Texas, and before that, served as Montana State's head coach from 2016-20 while racking up a 28-22 record.
Nevada is projected to sit in the basement of the Mountain West with a win total of only 2.5, so things will most likely get off to a rocky start here in the opener.
Let's break down this game in our SMU vs. Nevada betting preview.
SMU vs Nevada Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-27.5 -115 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -7000 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+27.5 -105 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +1800 |
- SMU vs. Nevada Point Spread: SMU -27.5 (-115) | Nevada +27.5 (-105)
- SMU vs. Nevada Total: Over/Under 55.5
- SMU vs. Nevada Moneyline: SMU -7000 | Nevada +1800
SMU vs Nevada Preview
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview: Welcome to the Stone Age
SMU returns eight starters on the offensive side of the ball, including star quarterback Preston Stone. He missed the AAC Championship last season with a broken leg, but he was incredible during the regular season.
Stone finished the year with a PFF passing grade of 91.0 — the fourth-best mark in college football behind only Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels and Carson Beck. He also posted the third-most big-time throws and eighth-highest EPA.
The reason he put up such great numbers is that he had great games against poor competition.
His stretch run toward the end of the season was something straight out of a video game, but it mostly came against the bottom of the AAC.
Image via PFF.
Stone also didn't lose any of his top pass-catchers from last season when SMU finished as a top-10 passing attack in terms of EPA. The Mustangs should be even better in 2024 and could shred Nevada's secondary in their opener.
The run game was closer to average last season, but all three running backs return after the top two rushers — Jaylan Knighton and LJ Johnson Jr. — combined for 5.4 yards per carry.
Their offensive line, which ranked 18th in Stuff Rate Allowed and 48th in Offensive Line Yards last season, lost a couple of key contributors but picked up some Power 4 transfers. SMU now has 120 starts coming back across the line.
Defensively, the Mustangs bring back their top seven tacklers from last season after ranking fifth nationally in EPA/Play Allowed. They're stacked in the front seven but a little thin in the secondary, especially at cornerback.
However, they shouldn't be exposed too badly on Saturday against a rush-heavy attack.
Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview: Transition Era in Reno
It's really going to take some time for Nevada to get its program headed in the right direction.
Offensively, it has a lot of work to do to get back to being just average.
Chubba Purdy transferred in from Nebraska to be the starter but is too banged up to play in the opener, which means last year's starter, Brendon Lewis, will get the nod at quarterback.
No surprise as Brendon Lewis will start at quarterback in Nevada's season opener versus SMU. Lewis threw just two touchdowns in 10 starts for the Wolf Pack last season, so that area clearly must improve for Nevada. https://t.co/f9nTxeArS0
— Chris Murray (@ByChrisMurray) August 19, 2024
Lewis is a running quarterback at his core, which is what the Nevada offense will need this season.
New offensive coordinator Matt Lubick has spent the last two seasons as an analyst at Kansas, but before that, he was an offensive coordinator for Nebraska, Oregon and Washington. He favors a heavy ground attack with a lot of play-action.
The Wolf Pack bring back their top running back in Sean Dollars, but he averaged only 3.5 yards per carry behind an offensive line that ranked 128th in Offensive Line Yards a season ago.
With SMU's front seven being loaded, I have a hard time seeing how Nevada will run the ball with any success.
On top of all of that, the Pack don't return any key pass-catchers. Even if they wanted to throw the ball, they wouldn't be very successful with Lewis, who put up a 46.0 PFF passing grade last season.
Defensively, Nevada ranked outside the top 100 in both EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush Allowed. It has nearly an entirely new secondary and a new scheme under Choate, which is a terrible combination against one of the nation's best passing attacks.
My SMU vs Nevada Pick, Prediction: SMU to Cover Spread in First Half
Finishing Drives is the best metric we have to determine how efficient teams are at covering spreads. Last year, Nevada's offense ranked dead last in the entire country in Finishing Drives.
With an entirely new pass-catching unit, a terrible passing quarterback and an offensive line that can't block going up against an incredibly stout front seven, I have a feeling things are going to get ugly fast in Reno.
Defensively, Nevada also has to break in an entirely new secondary against a top-five passing attack from a season ago. That will compound the issues for the Wolf Pack if they can't move the ball offensively.
However, 24 points is a pretty large spread, especially for the first game of the season.
With all of the new changes for Nevada and the fact that SMU brings so many pieces back, I think the better option is to attack the Mustangs in the first half.
SMU vs Nevada Pick: SMU 1H -13.5
How to Watch SMU vs Nevada Live: Start Time, Channel, Location
| Location: | Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV |
| Date: | Saturday, August 24, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
SMU vs Nevada Betting Trends
Of all bets on SMU vs. Nevada, 57% of the bets are on SMU, while 62% of the money has landed on the Mustangs.
From a total perspective, 62% of bets have landed on the over, and 72% of the money is on the total to go over.
SMU vs Nevada Weather
